Just when we think the summertime is quiet
time in Leafworld, we are provided with a jolt.
The hiring of 28 year-old Kyle Dubas as
Assistant General Manager will be applauded far and wide by the fraternity of
Leaf supporters who are also advocates regarding the value of advanced stats.
I’m sure Dubas is more than simply a stats guy, and his background suggests
that, despite his youth, he has been on a successful career path in hockey for many years. By all accounts he did an excellent job as General Manager of the Soo
Greyhounds of the Ontario Hockey League. The fact that Brendan Shanahan has brought him in tells us the
Leafs have, philosophically, made a 180 degree turn.
I had always assumed that management and the
Leaf coaches were well aware of what the “advanced” numbers were telling
them. If and how they fully utilized
those numbers, I wasn’t so sure. Nonetheless, I figured they certainly had
access to that information. This hiring,
however, indicates the Leafs will now be in the company of NHL clubs who see
absolute value in the data cranked out when it comes to individual players,
possession numbers and such things.
Now, does this mean the Leafs will stop
chasing grit and character (think Gary Roberts—and in the present time, Bolland,
Clarkson, Robidas, etc.) and all those wonderful intangibles that I’ve always
believed were necessary to win championships? Will they now focus more on skill
and players who will also bring impressive Fenwick/Corsi (have I got that
right?) numbers?
Again, I don’t know for sure, but the
recent selection of William Nylander in the first round is yet another sign
that Shanahan is moving the Leafs in a different direction.
With Poulin and Loiselle now gone, it’s
unclear whether Dubas will be the only newcomer in the front office, but I
think we can rest assured he will not only be an active voice but someone that
Nonis will have to listen to. Both
Carlyle and Nonis are working with new assistants, and that likely means
they are now under the gun, too.
I’ve said here in recent days that Shanahan
is giving players and Carlyle another “chance” to show they can get the job
done. That evidently applies to Nonis as
well. To some extent, that means he has faith in their ability to do the job.
But as much as many observers, myself included, are saying
Shanahan has exhibited patience since taking over as Maple Leaf President, in the same breath, he is actually making some
significant moves, simply in a somewhat quiet and measured manner.
My guess is many Leaf supporters, while
they might have preferred a new management team and Head coach in place for the
upcoming season, will now see some light at the end of the tunnel. Shanahan is definitely
in charge. He was a top flight NHLer in his day, a combination of skill
and determination. Now, he seems to be on the leading edge
of where the game is going.
If so, things just got a whole lot more
interesting in Leafland…
Posts
Hi Michael
ReplyDeleteIt's nice to know that Shanahan's quiet start has been, as you say, a matter of patience rather than paralysis and while one such move hardly forms a trend, this is an interesting teaser of a clue to where he'll be taking our Leafs.
Even amongst your regulars I suspect there'll be diverse reactions to this appointment and no doubt fresh fuel will be tipped on the false dichotomy that is the statistical analysis vs "use your eyes!" debate. Regardless of people's personal leanings, one hopes the majority of folk will realise that our front office now has two perspectives with a voice instead of one and that that can't be a bad thing.
Bigger picture aside, I'd like to take a moment to reflect on what an amazing day for that young man, Dubas. 28 and Assistant GM to his hometown NHL franchise (actually I'm not sure of that but am assuming it for now.) He must be on cloud nine and I hope he gets a chance to enjoy it in the next day or two before (a) becoming swamped by the enormity of it all, and (b) he's publicly lambasted by the tinfoil hat brigade.
I'm sure many of us would agree, KiwiLeaf, that good management teams use all the information and experience at their disposal to make the best decisions they can. In sports nowadays, that includes wise drafting and thoughtful player development. There is a need for both the "eye test" and advanced stats nowadays. Throw in gut instinct and the ability to forge the right mix and a team with a strong identity and you should be successful.
DeleteI think I heard Shanahan mention there would be more hires to the front office in the weeks ahead. I am thrilled with this hire and moving out two possible obstacles for Dumas, and future front office personnel with fresh ideas, was both smart and necessary.CN
ReplyDeleteYour last paragraph hits the nail on the head Michael. I do indeed see a light at the end of the tunnel. By everything I read today it seems as is Dubas is a blend of ideas. He uses statistics to help him fill out the puzzle but doesn't use them exclusively. To my mind this is light years ahead of previous Leaf regimes that just automatically discounted advanced stats as voodoo. I think it was quite telling that Shannahan mentioned that in the past some people in the Leafs regime were scared of certain words and phrases but that was changing. It seems as if the Leafs under new management are not going to shy away from any and all methods that will improve their team. I am very optimistic with this hiring. I think that for once the Leafs are out in front of the herd and not chasing after them.
ReplyDeleteThe other thing this hiring does is give me some hope that Nonis and to a lesser extent Carlyle are willing to try new methods of evaluating players. If Shannahan was willing to can most of upper management (a move of which I heartily approve) he must feel that both GM and coach are receptive to new methods. I have my doubts about Carlyle and still feel he will be gone much sooner than later, I just don't think he is capable of changing but at least I see the Leafs moving into the 21st century. All in all a very nice beginning by the Leafs. This move along with drafting skill over brawn is going to pay big dividends in a couple of years. Another year maybe two and the Leafs will hopefully be back to being a top team in the east.
In any business, organizations have to be willing to look at themselves and be open to new ideas and approaches. This is a step in that direction, for sure, Willbur. More to come, I'm guessing.
DeleteHi Michael,
ReplyDeleteShanahan works quietly making subtle changes, while the press is howling for significant changes and critisising every move.
Don't worry Michael, Shanahan knows about the importance of grit and character. The teams he won the cup with had plenty of it.
Like all stats, advanced stats are valuable if you know how to rate them.
The +/- stat is a good example, it won't tell you anything if you do not consider the circumstances.
The style of play is crucial, but I will write about it in another comment on the Carlyle blog before.
Hi Marcus- Yes, Shanahan saw how really good teams were put together. Though the game is played differently in some ways from when his Red Wing teams were successful, the necessary ingredients are still much the same. But a fresh approach can't hurt.
DeleteI don't think Nonis and Carlyle are getting a chance; rather they are being deployed like decoy flares and chaff to protect and help transition in the new guard who are all relatively new to operating under the scrutiny that follows the Maple Leafs.
ReplyDeleteShanahan has preached patience from the get go, and the Leaf's off-season moves thus far have had an eye on the long-term: drafting for skill/speed/possession, adapting team/coaching/management philosophy for the speedier/salary-cap era, etc.. The extensions 'awarded' to Nonis and Carlyle are the cocoon from which Shanahan's vision for the Leafs will emerge (in ~2 years).
Shanahan has certainly stressed patience, and he clearly wants to see the Leafs move in a new direction. Fans will support a vision that resonates with them, and so far, it seems as though Shanahan is hitting the right notes with Leaf supporters.
DeleteI think it was Steve Jobs who said something like: It's not about doing things better than everyone else, it's about doing things differently. Original, creative thinkers are very hard to come by, their ideas are too often rejected. I'm glad we have found a creative thinker in Shanahan who understands their value.
ReplyDeleteI thought the team would perform better in the coming season due to system changes alone. The pompous arrogance year after year from an often changing staff, still identical in their thinking, who have nothing to show but failure, has driven me crazy. It's good to know the Leafs now have people in place who think better than mediocher in the years to come is not nearly good enough. Anything short of a contender in such a rich market isn't good enough.CN
This is a major shift, Colleen, and likely overdue.
DeleteBest day in a long, long time. Germ theory has finally arrived in Toronto. We can now build fire without rubbing sticks. And the Sun no longer spins around the Earth...
ReplyDeleteThis offseason has been a remarkable breath of fresh air.
I just listened to Nonis's cousin Darren Dreger on TSN 1050 discussing the recent changes in the Leafs' organization. Here's the link: http://iphone.tsn.ca/tsnpodcasts/TD_DarrenDreger_July22.mp3. He is not impressed at all and I think that we can safely assume that Nonis' reaction to the firing of his two long-time assistants and the hiring of this new kid is very similar.
ReplyDeleteIndeed, it's looking like we are going into the season with a GM and a coach who are isolated within the organization, who are on the hot seat and whose life-support has been cut off. I don't think this will bode well for the season.
The organization is divided into the 'old guard' consisting of Carlyle, Nonis and probably a few veteran players and the 'new guard' composed of Shannahan, the new kid and whoever they manage to sell their 'philosophy' to in the dressing room.
The Burke era is over. Shannahan era begins. It's looking like a typical corporate maneuvering and backroom politics are about to take the front stage. To me it smells like a disaster.
I thing there will be plenty of doubt in Leafland, leafdreamer, about how well the new guard will mesh with the old guard. It clearly has the potential for serious conflict.
Deletein all fairness leafdreamer, even if nonis & carlyle were totally happy with their jobs and motivated and enthusiastic... i don't think there would be a statistically significant outcome for this upcoming season. no matter how motivated carlyle & nonis are, i don't think it'll translate into david clarkson scoring 50 goals for instance. (pardon my crassness).
DeleteWith respect to the perception of an encrusted 'old boys network' - the appropriation of Dubas (and departure of Loiselle and Poulin) signals a much needed injection of new blood for the future. However, given Shanahan's own success with his style of play, I find it hard to believe that we're actually moving in an entirely 'new' direction with respect to the draft, for instance. I just sense that the pipeline is more full of developing players (who may only be a year away from popping up on the Leaf roster) that are the more gritty/character-type guys.
ReplyDeleteAnthony Petrielli has some interesting interview time with Dave Morrison over on MLHS, and the grit vs. skill draft choices were addressed (to some degree by Morrison), saying, in effect, that the Leafs previous 'safe' choices (like Biggs) were more to their liking than the skill guys available at that time. He continued to say that the gritty game seems to take longer to develop (it would seem - like with defensemen), so my thinking is that it may just be, with the right kind of protection (eg. Biggs/Broll), guys like Nylander might have a bit more 'room' to play in the near future.
I think that the short term UFA signings were exactly what I anticipated in earlier comments I've posted, and know that Santorelli, Booth and Kontiola will have time to (re)make a name for themselves and create their own space on the Leafs for the future OR be used to create space for the farm hands to move up (pushing the others out by the trade deadline AND refilling the draft cupboard for 2015 in the process).
Dubas seems to be a bit of a wunderkind who can function on many levels. Even though I prefer to 'watch' games as a fan and trust/enjoy my observations of players, I'm glad that the young man seems to be quite humble (yet confident) and accepting that others may not fully grasp the analytics that augment his perception. He does have Shanahan's ear, thus Carlyle and Nonis will have to 'up their game' to give 110% (i.e. increase their current knowledge base) to apply what he is bringing to the table.
I'm sure that their days will be limited if they ignore what Shanahan so highly values... I'm wondering if Babcock fills the bill better anyway (I just read that Detroit lacks someone like Dubas - and I'd speculate they may have been the team that was rumoured to be interested in Kyle - which made his hiring a higher priority). In any case, it seems Babcock does appreciate the value that analytics bring to the mix.
All in all, I like the young man and he's made a favourable first impression upon me - even if I'm not that keen on pursuing the subject to the depth that I would, if that was my profession! He can provide me with a synopsis of his decision-making processes and I will find that interesting enough (if the team starts putting it together on the ice :)
Dubas will have a significant impact on Leaf management thinking right away, I think, InTimeFor62. If he helps to bring not only an energy but a different and important perspective, it will certainly be a benefit to the organization". "Old" can mix with "new" and trigger success!
DeleteI want to add something to your great post, InTimeFor62.
DeleteWe are not moving in a completely new direction. But Leafs nation seems to think there is a change of direction with every move. Drafting Nylander: Oh! we are going with skill now! Here is a change of direction and then they bring in the stats guy, there will be significant change in direction. Although the same guys say we do not have enough top line talent. If we add talent they say: we go in a diffrent direction.
You can not separate skill and grit. The best teams in the west are all extremely skilled and extremely gritty at the same time. Just look up the number of hits in the playoff games of teams like LA, CHI, STL, SJ.
We have to be gritty.But being gritty must not mean that we have heavy feet and hands of lead.
There real contenders have 4 lines that play over 10 minutes a game and are skilled from the first to the last player.
A third line winger has won the Conn Smythe this year.
I agree that it's NOT an either/or situation and am pleased to hear that Nylander is actually 5'11 1/2 and 183 (according to Morrison, if I remember correctly). He has been playing against men and is bigger than when Kadri first played with the Leafs (and he can also play with an edge :)
DeleteI've always hoped our primarily 'skill' guys would play with some tenacity AND that our more 'gritty' guys would work on their skating, shooting and passing games - players who can 'do it all' however they are called upon to play sounds good to me!
Also, nice to see Reimer get a reasonable raise - wonder how he'll cope with the backup role (if not traded).
Thanks the kind words, Marcus (did you like the Wunderkind word?)!
You're welcome. Yes I did like it, indeed!!!!
DeleteI tend to side with "leafdreamer"... but as an eternal optimist, I keep my fingers crossed. I cannot help but study the body language and uncomfortable facial expressions of Brendan Shanahan as he attempts to explain his philosophy(?) and "creative thinking"(?) during his initial media scrums. He gives every indication that, as a novice hockey executive, he is flying by the seat of his pants, unsure of himself and totally uncomfortable and overwhelmed by the responsibilities entrusted to him with the lofty appointment as General Manager of the Maple Leafs. If creative thinking amounts to surrounding himself with the best new era hockey minds available, then he is on the right course; but let's hope his next foray into the hockey administration market goes beyond Major Junior "A". Leaf fans want a contending team in the 2014-'15 season...Unlike the past three decades, they do not want to "wait 'til next year" for creative thinking to show signs of coming to fruition. We can only hope that as the kid from Mimico gets his feet wet in his new surroundings, he will be as adept in the general manager's as he was as a player on the ice.
ReplyDeleteWell said, Dick. Shanahan's early decisions appear to be fundamentally sound. Hiring executive talent is maybe as or more important than on ice talent, because ultimately your off-ice experts make the decisions about who will be on the ice.
DeleteSorry, I incorrectly referred to Brendan Shanahan as "General Manager"....Should be "President" (of the Toronto Maple Leafs Hockey Club).
ReplyDeleteI knew exactly what you meant, Dick.
Delete