Can Carlyle really adjust?

In these (wonderful) summer days when there isn't, in all honesty, a lot to discuss in Leafworld that doesn’t sort of fall within the broad category of hope and mere speculation, I’ve been reflecting on being a Maple Leaf fan. It’s always fascinating to read here at VLM the range of opinions that people have about the blue and white.  I enjoy reading the comments a great deal.  Divergent for sure, but the views expressed are almost always thoughtful and constructive.  No one pretends to have all the answers.  We’re fans, after all, not scouts or General Managers.

Quite a number of visitors here have been Leaf fans, like myself, for (many) decades.  Others have followed the team not quite as long, but no less intently.  Leaf fans generally fall somewhere between eternal hopefulness and mild despair, but regardless, we keep coming back for more.

So I’ve been thinking about where the team is right now.  Some VLM commentators believe the team is still on the right track, and that with a few breaks, fewer injuries and improvement from within the young core, we aren’t that far off.  Others see the picture rather differently, with not so much belief in the much-discussed Leaf “prospects” and even less belief that Dave Nonis (or Brendan Shanahan, for that matter) are the guys to make it happen.

Of course, besides those who actually play the game, there is one other individual who plays a key role in all this: Randy Carlyle.  

There are almost always lightning rods in Leafland, eh?  Guys that fans love, or hate, or love to hate.  We all remember Larry Murphy, right?  Good enough to win Stanley Cups elsewhere, and also to be elected to the Hall-of-Fame, but not good enough for us. 

In more recent times Dion Phaneuf has seemingly never quite satisfied the fan base, though goodness knows he couldn’t do much more than he has. Last season, a lot of emotional angst was spent on David Clarkson, he of the large, long-term contract.  He delivered precious little in Year One, much to the chagrin of the faithful here. (Recent reports suggest he is “working hard” this summer, so hope springs eternal…)

But maybe the guy who has made Leaf supporters shake their head the most over the past two seasons is indeed the Head coach, Carlyle.  Now, I’m not a sophisticated enough fan to be able to properly assess all the advanced stats that modern-era analysts have at their fingertips when assessing players—and coaches.  Regardless, I do know that whether it’s here or the social media outlets I visit on occasion, Carlyle’s name comes up constantly, and not in a positive way.  Fans have been (rightly so, I think) frustrated with some of his roster decisions, a system that players have not embraced and a style of play that may seem out of place.

The prevailing thought is that he is intransigent, stubborn or simply out of touch.

Now, I struggle with all this a bit.  When Carlyle first came here, I was none too thrilled with the choice.  But I thought he at least connected with the players, though a number of ex-Leafs would clearly not vouch for that statement. I also figured—and still believe—that he is a longtime hockey guy who was an excellent player and earned his NHL coaching jobs by working his way up through the minor leagues. 

I know some observers believe the Cup he won with Anaheim (with Dave Farrish, his Leaf assistant the last couple of seasons, at his side, right?) is ancient history.  Chris Pronger and Scott Niedermayer don’t player here, I understand.

But in the same breath, not too many teams win a championship despite their coach. Do we believe that he is so incapable of change that even with the right players, some looking in the mirror and a few adjustments, he can’t win here?

The truth is, I have no idea.  I know many are convinced Carlyle is long past his best before due date as an NHL coach, but while there is some evidence in that regard, I just don’t know that for sure.

Brendan Shanahan, I believe, not so much Dave Nonis, made the decision to sign Carlyle to a new contract.  MLSE has plenty of cash, so paying Carlyle off if he is fired at some point is not the issue.  But Shanahan is giving a lot of players another “chance” and the same thing applies to Carlyle, it seems.  That said, the fact that Carlyle’s assistants were let go and he seemingly had little to do with hiring his new assistants suggests he is indeed on an island by himself. The players surely know this, and while I’d hardly claim there is a player conspiracy to get rid of him, most likely would be just as happy to have a new guy in charge. But who knows?

So I guess it comes down to whether the players truly embrace whatever Carlyle is selling this time around come September.  If the team “leaders” are even a bit ambivalent, it’s likely the coach won’t be here long.  If there is, somehow, a sense of “we all messed up last season, but we’re all in this together now, we’ve been given a lifeline” that exists between Carlyle and the players, maybe the optimism I expressed through most of last season will be revived.

I will say this: a few early-season wins won’t be enough.  The Leafs have to play smart, fast, grinding hockey on a consistent basis.  They can’t take their foot off the pedal if things go well for a while.  We know they need better play from their blueline, better overall team defense and certainly better play from their third and fourth lines.  Some roster tweaking has provided for those possibilities, but at the end of the day, I still believe it will be about not only skill but “will”—the willingness of the players to fight for every inch of ice, game in and game out. 

So here’s the question: is Carlyle the guy to build an identity for this team and get them to believe in themselves so they can in turn play the kind of hockey that will make believers out of a fatigued but still wanting-to-believe fan base?