It’s way to early to make any definitive
pronouncements on the state of the Maple Leafs.
Three games doesn’t necessarily tell us a lot, though it may provide an
inkling of what lies ahead.
Those three games have netted the Leafs one point
so far in the NHL standings—earned as a result of the come-from-behind shootout
loss to the Senators on Saturday night at the ACC. Boston and Columbus are also winless with in three games (without a point) so the Leafs have some early season
company.
Some very preliminary thoughts:
- Our goaltenders aren’t stealing any games for us.
- I thought the back checking on a couple of the Red Wing goals on Friday night, for example, was less than what we will need to be competitive. If our forwards don’t work their tails off coming back, this will be a long season. Stretching and waving a stick at a guy won’t get it done.
- I’m not sure where the leadership will come from when the team hits rough patches.
- This feels like a roster built for ensuring the Leafs will get a high draft pick next June as part of the long term rebuilding plan.
- Almost a week off between games gives Babcock a chance to conduct a mini training camp with his full roster- and without the large numbers he had at camp.
My questions for you today are
straightforward: recognizing that most Leaf supporters have long declared this
year is not about wins and losses, surely we still expect something to come out
of a long NHL season. So my questions
include:
- Do we have one bona fide NHL star in this lineup?
- Can our goaltending win enough games to stay out of the Eastern Conference basement?
- Will we tire of saying, “Hey, it’s great to see the Leafs are working hard?” because working hard ultimately won’t be enough?
- Are expectations for this organization too low?
- Have any Leafs caught your eye this season so far?
Again, it’s awfully early. Lots of work ahead.
Posts
I don't have anything terribly insightful to add, but since no one has replied yet hopefully I can start a trend by copying and pasting your questions. It's been a pet peeve of mine to continually have to scroll up to make sense of the answers! Especially because the answers are nearly always of a high enough quality to justify the effort; on any other site you could maybe just skim through.
ReplyDeleteAlthough I suppose on the list of Leafs fan problems that doesn't rate very high...
Oh well, here we go.
Do we have one bona fide NHL star in this lineup?
No, probably not, which is why I didn't support the Kessel trade at the time and still don't like it. On the other hand Kadri still has a shot, and we have guys like Nylander and Marner waiting for their opportunity. Isn't this just par for the course for a non-lottery winning team?
Can our goaltending win enough games to stay out of the Eastern Conference basement?
I think I have made my preference regarding the goaltending situation fairly clear (to anyone paying attention to my comments, anyway!). Reimer didn't cost the team the game on Saturday night. That said, Bernier really didn't in the other two games either. I really don't like the fact that he allowed a goal on the first shot, and I don't think the impact can be discounted. But he still made some big saves throughout the rest of the game. No matter which goalie starts I think we can be confident that they will put in a performance deserving of more than the basement (of course, given the answer to question #1, will this be enough?).
Will we tire of saying, “Hey, it’s great to see the Leafs are working hard?” because working hard ultimately won’t be enough?
I don't think so. It really is quite a novelty, isn't it? That's a terrible thing to say, but I think it's true.
Are expectations for this organization too low?
They probably are. This team really isn't fundamentally different than many of the teams we've watched over the last decade. They are in the same situation as any of those teams; if they play over their head for more than half the year they'll make the playoffs, if they play to their level they won't.
Have any Leafs caught your eye this season so far?
Only in a bad way. I wasn't paying close attention the Wings game. I was listening to music and had the sound muted on the TV. But whenever there was a goal I hit rewind to see what had happened. I was disappointed to learn that the player I identified as the main culprit was Phaneuf on one goal and Rielly on another; two of the players I defended the most in the past.
Good to get your thoughts, Oliver. They will indeed have to play over their heads to make a playoff push this season. But if they work as hard as most of us expect, who knows?
ReplyDeleteIt's early yet... that 20 game boundary is a few weeks off... and I can see the team struggling to "play the right way", as Babcock likes to say. In two of the three games, we showed better work ethic and more puck control than we've seen for years, so things are looking up a bit. Maybe some of our secondary guys will find their scoring touch once they can play the Babcock system automatically.
ReplyDeleteHaving said that, and in answer to your questions today:
No, we don't have one bona fide star in the line-up. As Oliver says, Kessel was the one we had, but there was simply no way we could build a team around him, so he had to go. (It's my hunch that Lou Lamoriello was brought in because we did so poorly in that trade.) Reilly's probably the closest we have, and I think we may be surprised by Gardiner's development this year. Both have "star" potential, for sure.
Our goaltending remains inconsistent, which killed us last year and will likely do so this year as well. Both goalies give up terrible pee-wee level goals, then make spectacular saves. It's just that you never know which result you're going to get. I think trading for a real #1 goalie will be a priority next year. If our team defence improves, our goalies' save percentage should improve, so I'm pretty sure we'll stay out of the cellar.
I'm pretty much at the "hey, the Leafs are working hard" stage already. It makes watching a game tolerable. But, as I said the other day, I have no expectations for our team to do well this year, so I'm OK with seeing effort, and hopefully gradual improvement. But I'm keeping my parade gear in the attic.
I don't think expectations are too low. We've been told to expect pain, we've been told that this year won't be judged on wins and losses alone (I wish someone would tell that to the stats keepers), so what's to expect? I'll check in on games, but I don't feel the old necessity of having to watch.
Rielly and Gardiner have both caught my eye so far. Riles seems more confident, and Gardiner seems to be developing his game to match his skills. Winnick is his dogged, hard-working self - great to see him score the other day. Everyone else looks pretty average, so far.
I think I'll be spending more time watching the Marlies this year. That's where the future of our team lies, and they've got some talented players. And I might even see a few wins!
Thanks for your thoughts, Gerund- to your last point, the future does seem be down on the farm!
Delete"As Oliver says, Kessel was the one we had, but there was simply no way we could build a team around him, so he had to go. (It's my hunch that Lou Lamoriello was brought in because we did so poorly in that trade.) "
DeleteInteresting comment G. I agree you can't/don't build teams around wingers to begin with and Kessel in particular. Ovie might be the lone exception and even that has been debatable at times.
But I am not sold we did THAT poorly. Another good prospect would have been nice for sure but it costs to move a big price long term contract in the cap world. Kessel had a limited NTM clause so that limited the teams they could deal with. Take all that into consideration and it is almost a miracle they were able to move him period.. I don't think anyone ever got fair value for moving a star back in the day and with the current CBA it makes it even tougher.
I agree the salary was a problem, Pep, but we're also talking about one of the top 5 scorers in the NHL over a number of years. When I think back to old trades - even way back to the Mahovlich trade to Detroit - we usually seemed to come out of it with at least the semblance of a saw-off. This deal seemed one-sided in Pittsburgh's favour, to me. But maybe it was the only choice they thought they had...
Delete"This feels like a roster built for ensuring the Leafs will get a high draft pick next June as part of the long term rebuilding plan."
ReplyDeleteThe way you wrote that Michael you almost sound a bit surprised but the organization has been pretty clear there will be some pain while they rebuild. And they did fill the roster with cheap 1 year role player type free agents for the most part so...
Do we have one bona fide NHL star in this lineup?
Morgan Reilly star in the making.
Can our goaltending win enough games to stay out of the Eastern Conference basement?
By themselves? No, that has been proven in past years for me. You have to play proper team
defense or even Carey Price will not keep a team out of the lower dregs of the standings.
Will we tire of saying, “Hey, it’s great to see the Leafs are working hard?” because working hard ultimately won’t be enough?
Eventually but I won't this year because it my only expectation of the team this year.
Are expectations for this organization too low?
Again, not for me for this year. I expect a step forward next year but that step does not
necessarily include playoffs yet.
Have any Leafs caught your eye this season so far?
JVR is starting to look like he did a couple years ago when he started to skate hard and skate
well after spending time with Barb Underhill. He looks like he is starting to shake the cheating
lethargic ways after spending 2 bad years floating on a line with Phil.
Reilly is moving the play and showing some good signs of taking his game to the next level.
Uncle Leo is doing what he does best. Shame he didn't have slightly better hands but what he
brings every night is good hard leadership play.
Rielly may well become a star, Pep.
DeleteI'm with you on Komarov- we need guys who give everything they have.
"1.Do we have one bona fide NHL star in this lineup?"
ReplyDeleteYes, Morgan Reilly in the future.
For now the only other guy that looks like an NHL star is James van Riemsdyk...size, skill, more upside. He is the only forward on the Leafs that could play on the top line of the majority of NHL teams and probably be better. You can't say the same of Kadri, Lupul, Bozak..on most teams they are not a fixture on the top line.
"2.Can our goaltending win enough games to stay out of the Eastern Conference basement?"
I don't know. I think these guys are fragile. Bernier has never proved himself as a number one goaltender. Reimer has experienced some bad runs. I hope he gets on a roll. Everywhere he goes, Garrett Sparks battles without complaint. If called up, he might surprise up with his mental toughness.
"3.Will we tire of saying, “Hey, it’s great to see the Leafs are working hard?” because working hard ultimately won’t be enough?"
I hope so, it will mean they didn't quit. I am more worried that they will start mailing it in after 40 games and we won't a good return for some of these trades.
"4.Are expectations for this organization too low?"
No, I expect the Marlies to challenge for the Calder Cup and these young additions and other moves, plus a good draft pick will push the Leafs back into the playoffs next year or the year after.
"5.Have any Leafs caught your eye this season so far?"
Hunwick is better than I thought. I thought he was borderline NHL player. Boyes looks to be a bargin. However the greatest revelation was recently drafted Timashov. He had two points in two games. He looked more skilled that 3/4 of the Leaf veterans. He did not look out of place on the power play with NHL players. I wish they could have kept him up for a few more games against so we could have seen him against a more NHL level line up.
Did you see him the other night? That's some skill:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=adISJ6jzFC0
I will check out that You Tube clip, DP. As you have stressed here in the past, there is some talent in the system.
DeleteHi Michael!
ReplyDelete1)
No. But I think Rielly will be, eventually
2)
We will see. Reimer is coming round. I don't believe in Bernier. But if they can win us enough games, I don't know.
3)
Yes we will, I will, anyway.
I think it is so sad that we really have to talk about their work ethic.
That shouldn't be a subject at all.
4)
For this season?
The problem with expectations is, if you raise the bar so high that you have no chance to manage it, you wont get better.
I don't think higher expectations for this season will lead to anything good.
5)
Matt Hunwick.
Finding D-men that are able to play good minutes are very hard to come by. Everybody is looking for them and everybody is willing to throw money at them.
Finding a D-man who can play responsibly and that for over 20 minutes (what we would call a top 4 role), even if it would be only 15 minutes and that for 1.2 mil per for two years is a stroke of genius!!!
And suprisingly he is not talked about a lot.
Perhaps they will deal him this year. A contending team with cap issues looking for depth might be willing to give up something good.
6)
I wrote in my comment on your Babcock piece, that I am not sure how long he will survive here.
You answered Shanny will give him time. But that wasn't what I meant.
I wonder how long it will last until the press and the fans turn on him, if success won't come. In let's say the next three years.
Hi Marcus- yes, Rielly continues to develop- he's getting key minutes, playing against good lines.
DeleteReimer at the moment is taking advantage of his opportunity in net. Longer term, I wonder
what the organization wants to do in goal.
I agree with you about work ethic: that should be a given at this level.
Hunwick has helped already, for sure. He was a very good acquisition. A good asset to have.
My guess is Babcock will continue to have a honeymoon for a while. But success will need to arrive at some point, or he will face scrutiny from the media, too.
Thanks Marcus!