The Maple Leaf defense: there is always optimism in September. Is it well founded this season?

Maple Leaf fans, as we have discussed here in the past, are forever hopeful.  Oh, we grow frustrated, sometimes panic and often expect the worst, but every September, we come back.  And usually, beneath a perhaps caustic-sounding exterior, deep down we want to believe—we may even choose to believe—that things will be better this season.

A few days ago I posted about our forward group heading into the 2014-’15 NHL season.  We clearly have more depth there, though I’m still not quite sure we have a lot of high-end forwards.  Whether the new additions on the third and fourth lines (we’re not really sure how those units will look just yet, of course) ever become more than just another bunch of replaceable NHL players, well, we’ll have to wait and see.

But based on the sentiments expressed in the comments here, and a cursory headline review of some mainstream media commentary, it feels safe to suggest that Carlyle will at least have more options to work with in terms of configuring a lineup this season that will allow all twelve forwards to have an impact on game night.

This, of course, brings us to our defense corps.

Now, I’m guessing we will all agree that playing “good defense” is an overall team thing.  It has to do with the system employed by the coach, for sure.  But it also has to do with the players embracing the system and their individual role within it.  It also requires more than players saying all the right things.  They actually have to commit to being defensively responsible and not just expecting that from their teammates.

I’ve long believed that almost anyone good enough to be in the NHL can, if they want to, become an effective defensive player.  It’s simply a matter of “will”.  Does a player want it bad enough to put in the work required to be hard on his man, hard on the puck and hard to play against while putting himself in the right spots most of the time—again, within the team’s “system”.

So let’s look at our defenseman, though I’m not sure I have much, if anything “new” to say about them as we head to training camp within days.

Dion Phaneuf is the most important Leaf defenseman, in that he plays the most minutes just about every night and generally has the responsibility of dealing with the other team’s top line.  Depending on which Leaf supporter one approaches, the captain has either being a God-send for the Leafs or a player who has not lived up to his billing.

Regardless, he has been a generally solid defenseman here.

I’m not sure we can assume Dion will be better (whatever that might mean) this coming season simply because he has a new partner.  First, I don’t know for sure who the partner will be and further, I’m not sure Phaneuf still has a higher ceiling than what we have already seen during his years in Toronto.

He clearly brings the ability to log significant minutes. He plays special teams and is a generally physical presence on the blueline, a guy who can do a lot of things.  The eternal question in this market is whether Phaneuf is a true number-one defenseman, but I’m not sure it’s worth the debate any more.  He is a good defenseman, but he has played a lot of hockey already over the years.  Maybe at his salary we can expect more as fans, but we should probably be satisfied with him delivering what he does.  I’m sure we will hear the phrase “less is more” during training camp to describe Phaneuf’s approach this year.

What are my comments on Polak and Robidas, our off-season acquisitions?  Well, depending on my mood, I feel either very optimistic, or can’t help but feel that they will simply be guys that can play, but won’t make much difference.  I’d like to think Robidas will bring a physical presence, and if he can stay healthy, he may well add experience and that dimension of leadership that I still believe good teams need.  Polak is much younger, and whether his ceiling is more than as a third-pairing guy, I don’t know.  But as with the third and fourth line forward units, if your third defense pair is solid, that makes a significant difference. When a coach is comfortable opening the gate for all his forwards and defensemen at any point in the game, the coach’s decision-making should be better.

I’ve written more than enough in the past about Jake Gardiner.  Today I will simply say that there are certain little things I’d like to see in his play this season that would show me he wants to be more than a risk-oriented rover.  I know his “possession” numbers are evidently good compared with other Leaf defensemen, but I still see what I see—too many ill-timed solo rushes, too many giveaways, too many wide circles and not enough physicality in front of his own goalie, in the corners and around the net.  I don’t expect any defenseman to be great at everything, and Gardiner's skating and puck-handling alone should make him a Leaf for long time.  If he really wants to be more than just “good”, I think he can be. But he needs to be coachable.

It’s not a surprise that I would find Morgan Rielly the player I’m most excited about heading into a new season.  Like Gardiner, I’ve posted about him before and VLM readers know my thoughts on the sophomore rearguard. He's not just a guy in the pipeline who may be good some day.  He has already demonstrated that he can be a player at this level. There are some things that he does that few others can do as effortlessly as he can.  I don’t sense he will take backward steps this season. In fact, I would think he will only get better and improve in the areas he needs to, to become a complete NHL defenseman.  He seems to have the confidence and overall makeup to come back from mistakes and play his game.

This brings us to the player who, like Phaneuf, also triggers a lot of debate locally—Cody Franson. It sure feels that, at times, Franson plays like a guy who could be an All-Star.  He will eliminate his man and clear the zone effectively.  He can make smart plays. He is very good at getting the puck to the net from the blueline.  He can produce points. But there are also times when we don’t see that player.

At the end of the day, he was a significant minus player for the Leafs last season. I realize that statistic is not the be all and end all, obviously, but it may tell us something.  That said, I always remember Barry Trotz, an NHL coach I hold in high regard, saying he would love to have Franson back after the defensemen was traded to the Leafs from Nashville.  So he clearly was, at the time, a young defenseman with significant ability and potential.  Has he reached that potential in Toronto?

We’ll see if new assistant coaches make a difference.

Finally, there are the “kids”— Percy, Granberg, Nilsson, Finn, et al.  Most of you who follow the prospect pipeline know a lot more about them than I do.  I’ve seen most of them play a bit, but not nearly enough to feel confident in projecting what kind of NHL players they might be.  Again, as much as they all obviously have potential, I will believe it when I see them contributing and playing consistently well with the big club.  Until then, they remain in the prospect category for me.

So are we better off on the blueline than we were at the end of last season?  I really don’t know.  I think we know what we have in Phaneuf.  Could Franson be better?  I guess. If Gardiner and/or Rielly take that next step, as it were, hey, they may both be pretty darn good.  Robidas does provide grit and leadership and by all accounts Polak is hard-working D-man. 

It likely comes down to individual accountability.  Those six guys have NHL ability, and some have way above average NHL talent for their position.  There is depth here, too, with a number of youngsters waiting in the wings.

But I often look at NHL rosters at training camp, including the defense corps', like the projected pitching rotations in Major League baseball every year.  In March, during spring training, almost every team thinks they have five decent starting pitchers. But by June, injuries, performance (and reality) conspire such that many clubs are desperate for pitching help—and usually can’t find it.

So on paper, I will concede that the Leafs defense look OK—maybe even better than last year.  But a lot better?  Good enough to be part of a style of play that will make the Leafs a top player in the Eastern Conference?

I have no idea.  For me, the jury is very much out.  But hey, that’s why we have training camp, and why we play the games.  We will only know once we drop the puck.

I’ll just add this: if everyone can do a bit more, and Phaneuf is called upon to not carry the same burden, that would be a start. Just like most teams need balance on their forward lines, they need balance on their defense as well.

And this year, I will aim to delay any assessments about how much the Leafs have or have not improved—overall and on the blueline—until the season is well underway.  (I usually wait about 20 games into the year...this year it may be Christmas.) We’ve all seen the “season starts well, ends not so well” movie a few times over the past decade.

I need to see outcomes this time. How about you?