The Leafs made yet another valiant third-period comeback
Tuesday night, but fell achingly close in their 5-3 loss against the Blues at
the ACC.
As the Leafs struggled to find their skating legs in the
early going, I couldn’t help but wonder if it’s time for a lineup change. I know there are cap realities, but it would
be interesting to see an energy line with youngsters like Holland, D’Amigo and
Ashton, who surely would provide an early game boost for a Leaf team that often
seems slow to get into a contest.
Some veteran Leafs are not giving them much at either end of
the ice right now, and a “Kid Line” just might provide a spark.
Certain things are clear:
the Leafs are what they are—a team that is often outshot, has persistent
defensive deficiencies but has a very good netminder in Bernier. They also have a first line that is among the most dynamic in hockey. When the second
line chips in offensively and Bernier keeps them in the game long enough (as he
did against the Blues), it can be a winning formula.
It’s not a blueprint for long-term success, or for building
a championship team, but it got them to third place in the overall Eastern
Conference standings just a few days ago, until the recent slippage.
Some idle observations:
- The Leafs showed—against a tough, experienced, well-coached and technically sound Blues team—that even a good team can give up scoring opportunities (and a lead) if you pressure them. It’s the old story: why do teams (it’s not just hockey, and not just the Leafs) so often wait to play with that kind of passion until they are in desperation mode?
- That said, the Leafs are definitely a comeback team. How many times have we seen them pushing the play in the third period, often getting a result? Against the Blues, they just couldn't quite get the tying goal.
- I wonder if Kessel will get serious consideration as an end-of-season All-Star? For his occasional defensive lapses, he has to be one of the most dangerous players at his position in the world. His array of offensive skills (not to mention his hockey instincts) was on display again in creating the third Leaf goal.
- Watching a team like the Blues, you are reminded just how important having good defensive defensemen is. I would venture to say the Leafs need two stud defensemen to be serious contenders for a championship, along with Phaneuf and the kids, Rielly and Gardiner.
- Are the Leafs strong enough up the middle? Contending teams are generally really, really good at center (and of course on defense and in goal). I like Bozak and what he does for Kessel. We can all see Kadri is a dangerous, cagey player and Bolland brings determination and leadership. But do we need more?
I’m not into predictions and I don’t know what the odds are
for the Leafs right now regarding the playoffs. I didn't think this was going to be an issue. But time is running short, and they have a crucial back-to-back coming up
this weekend against the Flyers and Red Wings.
Are you hopeful? An
unhappy camper?
It’s your turn: you
can choose to find the positives, or vent…
Posts
"I know there are cap realities, but it would be interesting to see an energy line with youngsters like Holland, D’Amigo and Ashton."
ReplyDeleteThe Leafs currently have $784,245 in cap space. Send down Orr at $925,000 and you can easily bring up 2 young players. It could be many combinations depending on the opponent.
McClement, Holland, Bodie seems like a good third line and the extra center would have been useful considering Bolland just got back and could tire easily.
Leivo has been putting up the points.
However, against St Louis a really big body, mean that can actually play the game would have been nice. We have another one of those: David Broll.
Look what he did today:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gQMTm6hW1vs
235 lbs, can fight, decent defensively and nice pass.
Today the Toronto Maple Leafs also signed 2009 5th-round draft pick Eric Knodel to a one-year entry level contract.
Steve Spott alluded to this happening in recent interview.
If you read between the lines, Spott also seemed to indicate that Tom Nilsson from Frölunda HC will be here shortly to play on the Marlies before the season ends.
It's nice to have such a decent AHL team and all these prospects.
No question the Blues are a classic Hitchcock squad, DP. Matching up against this isn't easy for any team these days.
Delete"McClement, Holland, Bodie seems like a good third line and the extra center would have been useful considering Bolland just got back and could tire easily."
ReplyDeleteSorry I meant 4th line.
We've all wanted that young, energetic fourth line all year. I don't see it happening now unless there's an injury. At this point I'll be happy if Carlyle just leaves the 2nd line alone once and for all---though
ReplyDeleteBolland is improving quickly. I suppose Carlyle might throw him in on the 2nd line for a shift or two just to see what happens. With Ranger now practicing, do you believe Randy will go back to seven dmen or stay with the present roster? C.N.
Not sure about the 7 defensemen, but that was a staple of Carlyle for a while, so my guess is he will return to that approach, Colleen.
DeleteI can see you're in glass half-full mode tonight! For me, it's just more of the same, game after game. Flat start, defensive gaffes, terrible shots against, inconsistency from all but the first line, undisciplined play, and a coaching system that is truly baffling in its ineptitude. You could look back at VLM posts throughout this year and see the same thing said many, many times.
ReplyDeleteThis is a peculiarly unmotivated squad, for whatever reason, almost totally lacking in the desire and grit of last year's version. There are things to like, to be sure, but the consistent lack of effort over a complete game - well, it's stunning. I can't imagine how management is OK with it as the norm, but they apparently are.
I will say this - I can't think of one Leaf team over the past 60 years or so that I've been watching, that has seemed to be so uninterested in paying the price to win.
Paying the price to win, as we both know, Gerund O', has been a requirement of championship teams for generations in hockey. It's just the way it is.
DeleteWe have some of that ingredient, but not enough, it seems.
I completely agree about the young 4th line. Management always states how the Leafs are a very young team, and, to an extent, this is true. The Leafs filled important parts of their line up with young players such as Kadri, Gardiner, Franson, Rielly, and Bernier. But it boggles my mind why the Leafs haven't used a combination of Holland/Ashton/D'Amigo more often this year. I would feel a lot better about thier current situation if they had a large group of players they can say have developed and learned from the experience. Instead, Orr and McLaren have taken up valuable cap dollars for most of the year, and have sparsely played, and Ranger was being dressed as a 7th dman. Surely, the kids could give the Leafs a productive 8-10 minutes a night (D'Amigo can even kill penalty's). It's tough enough to win in this league, but I feel that Carlyle has them behind the eight-ball with the way he employs his lineup.
ReplyDeleteRP
I know that the game night roster decisions has been a source of, well, let's call it confusion (agitation?) for many Leaf observers all season, RP. I don't have an answer. I know it's late in the game now, but a young (homegrown!) energy line would surely get the Leafs going earlier in games and change the momentum at times.
DeleteHolding out hope that one of your fighters will win a big fight early on to get the team going isn't working.
I also don't think a defensive-defenseman will remedy the situation. Their defensive problems are a team wide issue. Their forwards are losing battles along the boards, failing to cleanly exit the defensive zone/clear the puck, and cheating for offense. Just my two cents. However, the defense can certainly use an upgrade.
ReplyDeleteRP
I totally agree (and have written about this here for ages) that defense is a team thing. You have to embrace that mentality of taking pride in your goals against average, in how you finish your checks, block shots, win battles, work for one another, etc.
DeleteBut I do think the Leafs also need something on the blue line. They have the kids, who will be eye-popping offensively, but another addition or two may help.
That's true. I suppose I agree with your original point. Plus, adding a decent defensive dman (or two) this summer will help free up Dion from his current defensive role. While Dion has evolved into a decent two-way player while in Toronto, I've long believed that he is being miscast by Carlyle as a "shut-down" dman. I wouldn't mind seeing a combination of Robidas, Orpik, or Greene in the blue and white next fall. Let them handle the shutdown role and have Dion play more of a two-way game better suited to his strengths. Probably just a dream given the cap constraints Nonis will have to work with.
DeleteRP
i think most Leaf fans would say Phaneuf has delivered as a pretty dependable defenseman who has accepted and embraced big time responsibilities. In the same breath, many of us would also agree that he has been pushed into a role he is not quite suited for. Here, he has had to be "the man". A little help could't hurt! (But yes, the cap is what it is...)
DeleteJust wanted to add, I'm not sure who to blame for the slow starts--The coach, the leadership, or the players individually. I would think making the playoffs would be motivation enough. There's obviously a problem but I can't make guess as to the reason for it. C
ReplyDeleteThe responsibility lies with a lot of people, from Nonis to Carlyle, his staff and of course the players - especially the veterans.
DeleteSure, I'd try anything at this point (and I hope Carlyle's thinking the same) - what have we got to lose?
ReplyDeleteBut I wouldn't hold my breath - the kids will be literally 'playing out of their league' just like they did earlier in the season when they got the chance and nothing much came of it. Of course, and this is a legitimate point, how can you expect them to produce when they're getting 3 or 6 minutes of ice-time? If there was to be a 'kid-line' then they should be given a chance to play significant minutes and take some of the load off the 'scoring lines'. To expect them to play a defensive role as checkers is, I think, absurd. Nevertheless, it's a long shot, but I'd try it. I don't, however, think Carlyle will.
The bigger problem at this point is injuries to the key players like Bernier and Bolland and very likely JVR, Phaneuf and Franson (and a total no-show from Clarkson). Carlyle's a stubborn guy and he knows what he wants - he thought he got it in the summer - grit and veteran presence on a strong checking line in Clarkson and Bolland and a great goalie in Bernier to compliment the skill upfront. He likes the 4th line with a face-offs / PK specialist (McClement) and a goon or two just in case - he does not play his 4th line - never did and probably never will. The problem is Clarkson didn't show up and Bernier and Bolland fell to injuries (Bolland for most of the season and Bernier at the key time). They are back now, but it doesn't look like they're fully recovered - Bernier can't even go down into a butterfly when required and Bolland is afraid of the boards and so slow.
Throw in a little more salt on the wounds from the hockey gods with some bad calls and a bunch of posts and crossbars and here we are - looking like a mediocre bubble team that's probably not gonna make it and, if we do, not very far.
At this point, I'm more interested in shooting for the bottom and getting a good pick that we can use to get a stud defenseman or two in return. Even if we make the playoffs we are going nowhere with all the injuries and fatigue. It's not gonna happen this year.
I still like Carlyle and the management team and I would be against replacing them - we made a big enough mistake getting rid of Burke (reflected in the hands-tying Clarkson contract - Burke would never have done such a thing) and I really don't think that a season plagued with injuries and still inexperienced and young roster (everyone seems to have forgotten how badly Reilly and Gardiner played in their own end for most of the season) warrants major changes to the direction in which this team is going.
I know that I've sang a different tune for most of the season and even as recently as yesterday but this is how I feel today - a fickle Leafs fan :( RIP 2014 Toronto Maple Leafs.
.
It's not fickle, leafdreamer. You're just trying to be realistic.
DeleteThis was supposed to be the team Carlyle wanted. And at times they have been productive and successful, though we all have seen the flaws.
As for the kids, I agree- you can't bring up an energy line and play them sparingly. When Rick Dudley and Brian Spencer patrolled the wings for the mid '70s Sabres, they created havoc and hammered guys all night but usually set the tempo early. It was a different time and they were more experienced players, but the principle is the same.
The Leafs could use a jolt, and a legitimate energy line could maybe help.
The Buds are now down to a 24.6% chance to make the playoffs and their curve this year is actually quite incredible especially the last 10-12 games. It kind of mimics an 18 wheeler going over a cliff ironically enough.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Eastern.html
http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Eastern/Atlantic/Toronto_ChanceWillMakePlayoffs.html
I will just echo what Gerund said. Since I borrowed his glass I spilled some and it has sprung a leak so it is much less than half full/empty/other right now.
Should they put out a 4th line of kids and give them at least 10 min TOI? Sure. But they should have done that most all year instead of dressing Orr and FML. The team looks tired to me. All 3 players on the top line are in the top 15 for TOI/Game for forwards in the whole NHL. The amount of time the top couple of lines have had to play due to injuries and Carlyle's ineptitude with team/player management and the tightened up schedule due to the Olympics have left them bagged.
I remember that Pat Quinn, who I loved, was often criticized for not playing Sundin and his first line more back in the day. Even Sundin was ticked.
DeleteBut Quinn, like all really good coaches (Gretzky said he was the best bench coach in hockey) understood that you needed contributions from all 12 forwards on a consistent basis throughout the regular season if you had any hope of long-term success.
Carlyle doesn't seem to see things that way. I don't know how he rolled lines when he won in Anaheim. Here, he has relied on his big guns, and we all know the fourth line played hardly at all through much of the season. It may be costing them now. Thanks Pep.
Michael
ReplyDeleteJust an observation. This Leafs team reminds me of the Red Wings in the years when Stevie Y was getting tons of goals but the team wasn't winning anything. Then he and the team learned to play team defence. His goal total went down but things turned out pretty good for the team as I recall (much to my chagrin).
Maybe the Leafs are at this stage in their development where they have the goal scorers but no team defence? If those players buy in to a defence first system, maybe they will also succeed as a team. Otherwise I'm afraid it will be more disappointment for Leafs fans.
I think they need to have a history lesson at their next team meeting! And perhaps a Scotty Bowman clone as coach!
Well said, Ed. The days of winning with firewagon hockey are long gone- as exciting as that brand of hockey was (and as fun as the Leafs are to watch when they are given lots of free ice!).
DeleteIt's the question we've debated here: wrong system, or the players not being willing to play the system?
Hi Michael:
ReplyDeleteIf the Leafs continue to play like they did last night, they will not be looking for a Kid Line Energy infusion. Rather they will be looking at these players (I would have named same three) for next year. Sounds like Brennan could replace Franson (what does DP think?) The shame about this season is that no one really knows what these players can do if given a regular shift in the NHL. It is very difficult for any player to show anything with less than 5 minutes of ice time with limited line-mates. I wonder if RC has phobia about young players? So unlike Tampa Bay and Detroit who have heavily used their AHL hands to get through injury problems while strengthening for the future.
Leafs System? Most of us have been at a loss to understand what RC's system is? Here is a link that says it far better than I can. http://mapleleafshotstove.com/2014/03/26/joffrey-lupul-also-confounded-by-leafs-defensive-system/
I have been looking all year for a word that describes what the team is missing. I believe the word is 'tenacious'. There are too many players going for the 'big skate' on defense, instead of quick stop, and go. We talk about the great scoring machine the Habs had, but it was guys like Claude Provost, Andre Pronovost, Bob Gainey and Guy Charboneau who could shut down the opponent's No. 1 line and score some goals while they were at it. Leafs had similar with Keon, Pulford and Armstrong. All these players were tenacious, like the proverbial pit bull.
You know I agree with you, Ralph (RLMcC). As you note, great teams, even in the olden days (and I just referenced fire wagon hockey when chatting with Ed -another old-timer like us- above) had determined, tenacious checkers. Some of them were 'stars', some were role guys but they all paid the price.
DeleteThat applied in the '50s, '60s and '70s, for sure. Even the Oilers in the high-flying '80s utilized guys who worked their tail off doing the things required to win- beyond scoring goals. Thanks Ralph.
You are correct.
ReplyDeleteFrom my own (life's little lessons) experience:
- Back-checking was absolutely no fun at all and very tiring.
- Fore-checking was not as bad. because you could create an opportunity to score - but still hard work especially in the corners.
- Puck Possession was definitely fun, and scoring even more so.
But in the final analysis, all three are required, but the "WIN" justifies the way.
Absolutely, Ralph. We all remember the effortlessness of skating forward with the puck, and how "easy" it was playing hockey to make the effort when there was a chance to score a goal! The motivation was there.
DeleteBack-checking when you're exhausted, fighting for pucks, corner work...that requires a whole other mindset. Some players, even at the pro level, never quite get all the way there. (This relates to Ed's good point about Yzerman and the Red Wings above.)
Your laugh for the day:
ReplyDeleteIt's going to just about kill me, but I will have to cheer for Montreal to win on Thursday.
If Montreal beats Detroit, it really helps the Leafs playoff chances.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VKcAYMb5uk4
I'm trying to think of the last time I cheered for the Habs, DP. It would have been my first...
Delete"The Leafs showed—against a tough, experienced, well-coached and technically sound Blues team—that even a good team can give up scoring opportunities (and a lead) if you pressure them. It’s the old story: why do teams (it’s not just hockey, and not just the Leafs) so often wait to play with that kind of passion until they are in desperation mode?"
ReplyDeleteWell, I think the answer to that is two fold. One, is that when teams in the NHL get a lead, they inevitably go into prevent defence mode and it become easier to pressure and possess the puck. This is borne out by the shot data, that even good teams tend to go into a shell with a 2-3 goal lead in the 3rd. I actually think this is lousy strategy, but that's the way it is.
Two is that its basically impossible for a team to play in desperation, firewagon mode for 60 minutes. The Leafs are damn good at doing this for stretches at a time, but it never works for longer than half a period at a time because it leads to all sorts of defensive breakdowns and undisciplined decisions, and plus, its hard to sustain that sort of maniacal energy for that long. To succeed in today's NHL, a team needs to master the basic building blocks of steady puck possession through cycling and solid puck retrieval in your own end. The Leafs suck at both of these basic skills so are left to rely too much on their strengths: good goaltending, excellent transition offence and puck handling. If this were the 80s, the Leafs would be in business. Unfortunately...
So true, CT- if we had access to a time tunnel and could shift gears back to the '80s, we may have something. We wouldn't beat the Oilers, but maybe could be like the old Jets, with Hawerchuk and some other nice pieces!
DeleteTo your point on a "prevent defense"- well said! This is the bane of my existence in the football world, too. Teams get a lead playing a certain way, then decide they will sit back on defense. The only thing a prevent defense seems to prevent some days is winning.
I've never seen a season where so many fans and writers and use the words "baffling" and "confusing". What changed so dramatically from last season to this one? They started the pre-season looking so strong.
ReplyDeleteI'm afraid to say it but most of us are already looking to next year. I can't say that our expectations were overly high for this season, we just wanted to see some forward movement, maybe win a playoff round. A disappointing, "baffling and confusing" season when we thought we were set, whether we have a late miracle or not. I haven't given up all hope for that, I'd love to see it. It just seems an impossible task.
Pension Plan Puppets had an interesting piece on Reimer. A drop of in average save % is almost universal for goalies, followed by a strong year. I wonder if we run James out of town and Bernier's save % drops the usual amount, where the Leafs be? I think the chances are slim we will have a back-up goalie of the caliber we had in Reimer or Scrivens, though I like MacIntyre. If the franchise decides on keeping James, and they would if they were smart, Carlyle would have to be gone. It might not be the best thing for Reimer, it may be the safest option for the team.
Many believe Ottawa over-performed last season. Maybe the Leafs did as well.
If the Leafs are finished, the summer will be a busy one. There will be lots to discuss here. C.N.
If the season unfolds in a disappointing fashion, Colleen, we will have more than enough to carry hockey conversation through the summer (if we ever get summer...)!
DeleteEvery time D'Amigo played 8-9 minutes during his 'cup of coffee', I felt like he had actually garnered the trust of the coaching staff... When Holland covered for Kadri (and at other points), I thought he had made a space for himself... When Ashton played with the energy of a maniacal whirlwind, I was 'baffled' by the 2-5 minutes he was 'earning'.
ReplyDeleteAll told, I wonder if there is a desire to 'hide' these assets in the minors until some trades can happen in the summer. Otherwise, I'm at a loss to explain why they aren't working into a 4th line with 8-10 minutes of ice time per game under their belts for most of a season already!
The need for Orr and McLaren was punctuated by the brief lockout season and the effective toughness that may have intimidated potential Kessel-Kadri assailants before they acted upon their desires. A 2 year contract for each may have been a reward for the near-obsolete job they have been doing. Orr's skating seems to have regressed from a more effective level last year, and I see the young guys laying on the body over 10 minutes of shifts being a far superior option to Orr's hits over 2-3 minutes a game.
It hasn't been effective time-management for the over-worked guys (in a season with a compressed schedule AND the Olympics for Kessel and JVR). We may be paying the price for earlier 'success'... I would love to see the young guys with Orr sent down, but I sense he may well end his career in Calgary (and such a demotion would also 'cost' something down the road - whether it is worth sacrificing the season requires a much healthier vision of the future than I can claim!).
I always 'hold out hope' while there's still a chance (even if it feels a bit 'Dumb or Dumber' :) though I must say I've started to foster an attitude of ambivalence in order to 'move on' if things don't turn around this weekend... we don't 'deserve' to make the playoffs unless we 'step up' and correct the situation we've created (you know... first person plural, in case some Leafs are listening to the white noise!)
I sense a lot of us are wondering why we didn't see an energy/kid line earlier and through most of the season. Baffling, but I'm sure the brass has their reasons.
DeletePhaneuf seems to have inadvertently taken the some of the heat off Reimer. He had a bad game. He knows it. He's human. I don't doubt that he did his best, whatever the result. I don't understand the need some fans have to attack individual players and place the whole blame of a loss on their heads. To me this poor game from Phaneuf underlines his importance to the team, not the other way around. A team doesn't recognize heroes or pick out members to shoulder blame. If they did, teams could never be successful. A win means most of the players did their job as well as possible. Everyone contributes in some way any given night, including those not on the roster. It's upsetting when you feel you haven't done your job well, but we're not perfect and the even best of us need help in one form or another. We all have a team, whether we recognize it or not.
ReplyDeleteSome of us appreciate Phaneuf and some don't and that's fine. His choosing to not be available to the media after a very disappointing game is irrelevant to me. These types of games are ones you need to work through on your own and flush as thoroughly as you can. It's best for the team if you can do it. It's very hard to do that with the media and fans waiting to rip into you. Dion has been available to the media win or lose all season. Not showing up this one time had nothing to do with cowardice. In this case I think it was a smart move.C.N.
Thoughtful comment- thanks, Colleen.
DeleteTwo points: missing a media availability once in a while is not an issue for me. Phaneuf has been, as you said, readily available day after day since becoming captain. Players need a break sometimes from the constant barrage of negativity.
As for why fans act as they do, I don't know. Human nature, I guess. People seemingly always want to 'blame' somebody for a mistake, a giveaway or a bad goal. Sports is all about mistakes. But if the effort is there, why harp on mistakes?
Hey, I've followed the Leafs (and sports) for decades. Like many other fans, I've seen all-time greats have had absolutely horrible games, including someone like Johnny Bower with the Leafs. He went through stretches where he struggled and gave up tons of goals but he became a Hall-of-Famer. Was he suddenly a bum? He was booed at times in Toronto, too.
We over-hype them when individuals do well and tear them down when they don't. It's never been fair but it is what it is.
Leaf fans - and maybe fans everywhere - seem to need a scapegoat to explain their team's woes. It's Reimer.. oops, nope, it's Phaneuf... oops, nope it's Carlyle, etc. Truth is, it's a team sport - including management - and if things aren't working (or if they are) it's a shared responsibility.
DeleteOn the money, Gerund.
Delete