Assessing the Leafs heading into the 2013-’14 season in 10 key categories

Those who are looking for a scientific/advanced stats kind of analysis on today’s topic will not want to read any further.  I’m just being honest.  There is no point wasting your time.

The kind of assessment I’m doing is quite old-fashioned.  There is no “metric”, nothing I can “quantify”. I will do what I always do here when talking about the present-day Maple Leafs:  provide a few thoughts about how I see the team developing, and how I think they’re playing—through my eyes, through my observation only.

As always, for those who are interested in reading on, I extend an invitation to share your views on the ten "categories" (not necessarily in any particular order) I will discuss briefly today, on the eve of the 2013-'14 Maple Leaf season-opener. In fact, this is an exercise I went through a couple of days ago on a recent “Maple Leaf Hangout” show with my colleagues at Maple Leaf Hot Stove. Opinions always vary on these types of things, but for me, that’s part of the fun because it creates friendly debate. 

What I’ve done is rank the Leafs based on their play through this pre-season, sure, but also with an awareness of how certain individuals have played in recent times- and what I project unfolding in the near future with this particular lineup.  Also, I am trying to take into consideration whether I believe certain performances of the recent past can be repeated—good or not so good. I am ranking the team in each of ten categories on a scale of 1-10.  The final tally will give some sense of where I see the blue and white right now.

Here goes…

Overall Team toughness/being hard to play against   (8)

I've sensed dating back to last season that the Leafs had (finally) become a club almost no one wanted to play against.  They had more sandpaper in their game and had generally become a more abrasive bunch.  Players like McClement helped add the “finishing their checks” dimension, and Kadri became a nasty piece of work with an edge to his game to go along with his more sublime skills, like finding open space.

Beyond his pugilistic (as needed) efforts, Mark Fraser is a hard hitter who can stop guys in their tracks and Franson showed a physical element to his game last season.  We know Phaneuf can hammer guys at times.  But just generally they were tougher—a trait which, to me, had not really been in evidence in recent years.  They’ve added Clarkson and Bolland (set aside Clarkson’s contract in making this evaluation—I’m only talking about his potential impact this coming season in this area) and of course there are our resident fighters, Orr and McLaren, so the Leafs are no longer a picnic to play against. So, I give them an 8.

 Shot blocking ability    (7)

Some argue this "skill" is not important.  (Hey, it may be more courage than skill, but I believe it is a bit of both).)  I believe it is.  The Rangers went a long way blocking tons of shots a couple of seasons ago, and while this has long been a crucially important skill (clubs that make it to the final-four in the playoffs every spring generally block a ton of shots, it seems), not all teams devote a lot of attention to it, or at least they don't have the players to handle this job.  The Leafs have some guys that aren’t afraid to drop down and block shots, either as forwards on the penalty-kill say, or from their position as defenseman.  Are we the best in the league?  Well, we haven’t been, but we have improved.  I can’t forecast what the Leafs will be in this area this coming season, but I feel comfortable handing out a grade of 7 at the moment.

Coaching     (7.5)

Carlyle obviously has a lot of detractors, for reasons I have dealt with here over the past several months  Whether it was how he deployed his personnel, including his dependance on “the fighters” and his usage of guys like Grabovski, Kadri and MacArthur, many find him a remarkably out of touch NHL coach. 

I see this picture a little differently.  Yes, the team did not maintain puck possession nearly enough last season and gave up an awful lot of shots at times, but I believe they are headed in the right direction.  The penalty killing was vastly improved a year ago, and that must have something to do not only with personnel but coaching.  I will say this:  I believe this is the first time Carlyle has really had a team in his image here in Toronto.  It’s also going to be his first truly full season behind the Leaf bench.   His grade, from me at least, will go up or down in the months ahead based on a simple factor:  results.  For now, I slot Carlyle (and his staff) in at 7.5

Power play   (7)

I kind of feel there is more talent and potential here than what we showed on the power play at times last season.  I’m hesitant to make a dramatic pronouncement right now, because I really have no idea how our PP will perform this season.  We can only speculate that, on paper, the Leafs should have the talent to ice two very capable power-play units.  Will we feel this way in February?  I don’t know, but on the basis of  recent history, new additions and familiarity with the “system”, I’m going with a 7.

 Penalty-kill    (8)

Again, none of us really knows if our penalty-kill can be as effective as a year ago. We largely have the same personnel, including McClement who was very much a glue guy last season in this regard.  But things can change quickly.  One year a team can be great in this area, then they suddenly fall off and everyone wonders why.  But based on what I saw a year ago, and the potential I see now, I’m comfortable giving them an 8 on this one. (Goaltending is often, as the saying goes, your best penalty killer, so the jury is out.)

Ability to overcome injuries/depth    (7)

Up front, I think we have a few guys that can step up from the Marlies and take on roles with the big club.  In that sense, I’m far more comfortable with our overall depth if we run into injuries than I have been in recent seasons.  (I used to feel we were populated by an awful lot of bottom-six forwards on this roster; I know feel pretty good about our top-six, and while I’d still like to see a legitimate number-one center with size, skill and grit, they clearly aren’t easy to find.)  We are very deep on the blueline, but I do wonder if we have a lot of quality depth there. So I’m calling this category a 7.

Top-six forwards     (8)

You know the names.  I’m finally confident that we have people who are legitimate front-line offensive threats, with some overall ability at both ends of the ice to boot.  I know people want to make a fuss about Bozak being on the first line (I’m giving up on that one; he’s a nice player—it is what it is…) and whether Kadri will or won’t center the second line.  But I’m not worried about Game One.  Things have a tendency to change over time as a season mves along and the coaching staff makes adjustments.  Down the road, Carlyle will (hopefully) have the right people in place and we’ll be fine in terms of a top-six.  So the boys get an 8 here.

Blueline quality      (6)

Here, I’m sort of falling back on my earlier blueline depth comment.  I like our defense corps but I don’t love it.   I think there will be nights when we feel it's a 8 plus, and nights when they play like a 5.  For now I am leaning toward the more modest ranking and will grade them out at a 6.  However, as I said on the podcast, if Ranger emerges as many hope he will, and Gardiner becomes more than just a flashy offensive defenseman (in other words, if he gets harder on the puck and is better in his own zone and around his own net) to go along with his impressive natural gifts), the grade will jump substantially in the months ahead.  But for now, it’s a 6.

Goaltending       (7)

I’m not fussed at all about the pre-season.  It didn’t convince me of anything one way or the other (except that even Bernier's biggest boosters surely acknowledge that if training camp was a level plying-field "competition", Reimer should start Game One.  After that, of course, all bets are off...)

I have plenty of faith in Reimer, and believe Bernier will get comfortable here.  I’ve said before Bernier is the guy the brass wants to grab the top job, but regardless, I don’t see both of these guys have poor seasons.  (Whether having a young netminding tandem will work in an overall sense, long-term, is a separate issue that I won't get into yet again today.)  For now, I am passing out a grade of 7, but that could go higher, obviously, as we see them both in action in the weeks ahead.

Leadership and experience   (6.5)

Regular VLM visitors will know this has been one of my pet concerns for years, that we simply have lacked the kind of seasoned, winning presence that emerging young teams usually need to help get them over the hump.  I concede that we still do not have any “greybeards” that the kids can look to and ask, “where do we go from here, old-timer?”, but the addition of “young” veterans like Bolland and Clarkson should help in this regard.  I think there is some leadership in the room now as well as some legitimate winning playoff experience.  I believe this team trait will also evolve in a positive way as the season goes along.  That said, it is not yet “proven” here, so I can only give us a 6.5 in this area—with hopes for a significantly higher grade in the not too distant future.

It can certainly be argued that I have been quite cautious and somewhat conservative in my assessment today.  If my arithmetic is correct, I believe I landed at an overall “score” of 72 out of 100.  (In school terms, I believe that would be a B-.) And the truth is, I think the Leafs are a bit better than that.  I believe we are probably a solid “B” team right now, maybe even, in the parity-filled Eastern Conference, finally a club that may be a B+ which in my world means we should be a top-six team in the Conference- maybe even a bit higher.

Again, none of this is science  - no stats, zone charts, exhaustive clinical breakdowns - just my gut feeling about how we shape up with a new season upon us. And I acknowledge that there are certainly other important areas that could have been included in any serious early-season team evaluation, but this is a start.

If you’re so inclined, share your thoughts on this one, and then, let‘s drop the puck.

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One sentence on the Colborne deal:  I'm not sure there is any other way to say this-  when you acquire a former first-round draft pick, talk about him publicly about becoming your team's second-line center in the very  near future, develop him for years in your system and then trade him for a future fourth-rounder, well, that's not good.

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I think it's fair to say Carter Ashton has earned his spot on the roster heading into the season.  He kind of shoved his up up the line with his work throughout camp, generally getting better as the days went by.

As for Morgan Rielly "making it" (for now) I don't get it, but I've said here all through camp that I believe Carlyle wants him here.  Again, not sure why at this juncture, but maybe other roster moves are upon us.