Jake Gardiner: a breakout season around the corner?

We all know a lot of the usual clichés when speaking of young NHL defensemen but at least one of them tends to be true:  compared with forwards, it takes longer for defensemen to mature and develop as players.

That said, unless you are one of those generational superstars who step into the league and run the show right away, it takes most young players—regardless of the position they play—a few years to mature, develop and become complete players.  Some never fully do, but the bottom line is you can’t really replace experience. It just takes time- and getting experience playing against the best players in the world.  There are simply things that young players are not exposed to at various earlier levels of hockey, or at least aren’t in situations at the pace at which they happen in the NHL. But once you get a certain level of experience, a player with talent who also works his tail off is usually ready to take off.

All by way of leading up to my belief that one of our emerging Maple Leaf defensemen, Jake Gardiner, is poised for a breakout season.

I’ll take a step back:  Gardiner caught most of us off-guard when he arrived on the scene during the 2011-’12 season.  Only those who closely follow the ‘prospects’ side of the business likely understood what the Leafs were acquiring (potentially) when Brian Burke sent Francois Beauchemin (who has played pretty darn well with Anaheim since) back to the Ducks in return for the injury-plagued and seemingly over-priced winger (Joffrey Lupul) and a college defenseman.

While Leaf fans were thrilled with Lupul’s surprising play, a lot of us were absolutely stunned by what Gardiner delivered in his freshman NHL campaign.  He could skate effortlessly, move the puck nicely and seemed to see the ice awfully well.  But the kicker was that this 21 year-old defenseman (who played the full season under Ron Wilson and later Randy Carlyle) looked so, well, unconcerned when he had the puck.  By that I mean that he was the picture of calm.  He just never really seemed to get rattled.  And not just by being in the NHL, but when opposing players would test him, pressure and forecheck him.  

This was a guy who wasn’t losing sleep about the stress of being in the NHL. Or at least it certainly didn't seem so.

Now, we all well remember what transpired this past season.  The lockout stymied just about everyone and everything, but Gardiner had the opportunity to play with the Marlies and was, by all accounts, not only the best player on Dallas Eakins’ roster but likely the top player in the entire league (or at least alongside his old college teammate, Justin Schultz, who was also opening eyes with his play in his first professional season). However, when the lockout finally ended and NHL training camp, such as it was, took place in January, Gardiner was not available because of a concussion he had suffered after his brilliant early-season play with the Leaf farm club.

By the time he was back (rushed into?) in the Leaf lineup, he showed flashes but was maybe not quite his early-season (or NHL rookie year) self.  Whatever was the case, Carlyle didn’t seem to like what he saw, so after only a couple of games Gardiner was back with the Marlies.  By the end of the 2012-’13 NHL regular-season, Gardiner was back up with the big club but often a healthy scratch.  I remember writing at the time that despite Carlyle’s apparent dissatisfaction with his play, I felt the Leafs would in fact need Gardiner at some point, and that proved true when the playoffs hit.  After some injuries and uneven play in Game 1, Carlyle inserted Gardiner into the lineup.  Against the Bruins, he played some inspired hockey at times.  As I’ve written before, there may have been a few too many “Lone Ranger” rushes for my liking and still a fair bit of skating in wide circles, but he seemed to be back to his old confident self.

Going into the Boston showdown, I wasn’t sure he could handle the physical Bruin forwards.  He had struggled at times around his own net during the regular season, coughing up the puck at bad times.  Those miscues aside, against ordinary opposition, he could usually skate away from trouble, using his instincts and speed to avoid being hemmed in. But again, Gardiner well for Toronto against a very good Boston side.  He was part of the reason the Leafs almost won that series.

He was on the ice for the Game 7 overtime marker, but it seemed to me that he had also played his way back into Carlyle's good books.  Which leaves me thinking that, all things being equal (and assuming Gardiner is one hundred per cent healthy, which he must be), he should be primed for a) a big season and b) lots of ice time this coming season.

In fact, while I’m not one for predictions (at least not taking them seriously), if I had to estimate Gardiner’s production and value this coming season, my guess is he will be a 15 to 20-goal, 55 to 60- point guy, which would be startlingly impactful for the Leafs.  I also think he will average huge minutes, and if healthy, log more ice time than any other defenseman but Phaneuf.  That means he will be on the second defense  pair most of the time, and also get a ton of power play time.

Gardiner has always struck me as a very confident young guy, raised to believe in himself and his abilities.  He was not in awe when it came to playing in the NHL, and is a rare bird when it comes to his skill level.

I’ve written here in the past about ways he will need to improve in his own zone, and Carlyle is acutely aware of any deficiencies in the young man’s defensive game. (Are there any young defensemen that don’t have to improve their play in their own zone?)  But the kind of talent Gardiner has is not something that is easily found—or replaced.  So the Leafs will want to nurture what they already have.  At 23, Gardiner is on the cusp of what should be a brilliant NHL career. Good coaching should only help him be even better.

The Leafs have a lot of young defensemen in the system who seem to be within a year or two of being NHL-ready. Blacker, Finn, Rielly, Granberg and Percy are all looking for their opportunity.  All have significant  “potential”, especially young Rielly.

But Gardiner is already an NHL’er.  He is much more than a “prospect”.  He has shown he can play with the big boys.  And I think this is the season that he breaks through and becomes a household name in NHL circles.

Too optimistic? Let me know…

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I've not been posting as much recently, but that has been my intention this summer.  (I have been working on a new project, which I hope I'll be able to chat about within the next few weeks.) But if you've missed some recent columns here, I invite you to check them out:

• 12 treasured Maple Leaf memories in my lifetime

• Carl Brewer's astonishing record of successful hockey comebacks

• On Jonathan Bernier wanting the number-one goaltending job in Toronto (you may hear my teeth grinding as you read that piece...)

• Can the Leafs afford a lame-duck Kessel this coming season?