If you could only re-sign one of Phaneuf or Kessel, what’s your inclination?

Not that I spend all my time thinking about such matters, but when I do sit back and contemplate what Dave Nonis is trying to build with the Leafs, I do wonder about priorities and next steps.  (That’s not a knock on Nonis—I simply mean priorities in an overall sense.)  And one of the priority areas—and next steps—that I’ve thought about lately, as we are now venturing closer and closer to the beginning of training camp, is money allocation going forward.

Let me be clear:  as I’ve long acknowledged here, I am  fully and absolutely incompetent when it comes to issues like cap management. I just have no expertise in this area.  But I do know that, in a cap system, you can’t, say, spend all your money on two or three guys (kind of like Tampa Bay seemed to for a few years) and hope you can pull a rabbit out of your hat to fill out the roster with a bunch of hard-working pluggers who will somehow win you a championship.  I suppose that could work, but it's unlikely.

Most NHL rosters nowadays are meticulously built, with an eye toward having some semblance of  scoring punch on the first two lines. Then you have some grit and tenacity (and a bit of skill, too) on your third and even fourth lines. You want a really good goaltender, of course, and four defensemen who will play significant minutes, and two other defenders who you hope will log anywhere from 10 to 15 minutes a night and won’t hurt you when they are out there. And you certainly need blueline depth that isn't costly.  (Primarily solid AHL'ers and emerging young players who don't have big-time salaries.)

That’s not very scientific, but you get the idea.

So now, I well recognize, as I have posted here myself of late, that the Leafs have short-term needs, as in closing out the contracts for Kadri and Franson. Working all that out, one way or the other, is the immediate priority.

But I’m also aware, as you all are, that some decisions also have to be made pretty soon about other more experienced and frankly, more valuable players.  As I write this, two of the names that spring to mind are those of Phil Kessel and Dion Phaneuf.

I’ve written about Kessel here this summer.  Some of you know my view—I think Nonis needs to extend the game-changing winger. Not because I think he’s the best thing since sliced bread, or because he has demonstrated he can lead us to a championship.  (Heck, I was thrilled that he showed he could play under pressure against his old nemesis, the Bruins, in a single playoff round. But at least it was something to build on…) It’s just that he’s the biggest threat the Leafs have, the most dangerous guy on the ice for either side many nights—though young Kadri showed some of that in his game at times last season, too.

To me, you either have to trade Kessel very soon to give another team sufficient time to try and sign him and also to get something really, really good for him in return....or pay him one of those ridiculously long contracts in the 8 year, 8 million a year range. Will I be happy about that?  Not necessarily, but I think all these salaries are out of whack with reality and common sense, so I’ll leave that alone.  I just believe, strongly, that Nonis cannot allow a lame-duck season from Phil the thrill, and do the on-gain off-again negotiation dance with Kessel’s agent all season long—and then expect to sign the guy before he hits free-agency in July of 2014.  I don’t see a happy ending there.

He needs to be extended—and soon—or dealt before he suffers a serious injury, for example, and all hell breaks loose and management doesn’t know what to do.

But that’s the Kessel situation.  The elephant in the room is the captain—the aforementioned  Phaneuf. What do we do with him?

I know Dion has his legion of supporters within the Leaf fan base, and understandably so.  By the end of last season I was, somewhat grudgingly, acknowledging he does a lot for the club.  He logs those massive minutes, does hit guys sometimes and can make a contribution offensively, though he is not the most creative player around.

It’s just that I wonder if Phaneuf—as I’ve long said here, christened way too soon by Brian Burke as the “captain” virtually upon his arrival—is the kind of player we want to be coughing up 6 million or more a year for six or years (or longer), just because he too, like Kessel, is a UFA in less than a year, if I’m not mistaken.

Like I have concerns with what David Clarkson will be in three years (I think he’ll be an asset the next couple of seasons, maybe beyond, but we’ll see), I wonder if Kessel will be a player who gets better and better and more “complete” (like Yzerman, Modano and others before him) or will he be one of those 30-something forwards who become a shell of what they were in their prime. But at least if he signs one of those awful 8-year deals, he’ll still be in his early 30s when a possible decline arises.  By then, the Leafs would have had him in his peak years of production.

Similarly, though, will Phaneuf be one of those defensemen who get better with age? He will be 29 before the coming season ends.  That’s hardly old, though he has already played what, 600 or more NHL games, excluding playoffs?  He has some wear on his tires, especially with the minutes he has played in his career, and notably under Wilson and Carlyle in Toronto.  Will be age gracefully like the silky smooth Lidstrom (not that that’s Dion’s game) or the hard-edged Chris Chelios?  (Who played until he was  60 or something—at least it seemed that way…)

Or will Dion find his game falling off in his 30s, under the demands of his often-physical style and the  ice time and responsibility he has earned.  He is not the fleetest defenseman afoot to begin with—will he compensate as the years go by?

It’s funny:  I respect Kessel’s abilities (how can you not?) and he is an exciting player, to be sure.  But while I have long wondered whether he will ever be a leader and about his ability to be a clutch player, he is a better all-around performer than when he first arrived in Toronto.  Ultimately, you have to run with someone, and he seems like a guy that the brass will want to keep around (again, unless they don’t think they can sign him, and can get a solid return…). I’m not a guy who has always necessarily believed fully in Kessel but he seems like a fit—now.  Maybe I’m wrong.

On the other hand, would I miss Phaneuf if he was gone?

I don’t know.  I really don’t know.  I see all the good things he brings, but (and again, I may be way off base) I’ve never seen him as any kind of real leader on or off the ice.  And for me, he’s just not that high-end, stud defenseman Leaf fans long for, though he is compensated that way.  (I recognize that others may feel differently.)

I know I’m an outsider and not aware of the “room” and player relationships and all that stuff.  I just don’t know if he is that guy, in terms of being a player other Leafs look to for inspiration or whatever.

Of course if he was not here, his minutes would have to be replaced, but he’s not the only guy in the league who sees a lot of ice.  (We'd have the same issue if he was injured for any period of time.)  Those things tend to take care of themselves.  Jake Gardiner most nights looks like he could play thirty minutes without taking a deep breath.  I’m not suggesting he brings all the characteristics that Dion does, but he brings things the captain doesn’t—and couldn’t.

Yes, right now, we need to see the Kadri and Franson contractual posturing settled.  But there's more to do.

So I’ll put it to you:  hey, maybe Nonis wants to and can actually re-sign them both before they become free-agents.  But if he can’t, or doesn’t plan to, if you had your druthers (someday I’ll find out exactly what druthers are…) and had to pick one or the other, who would you extend—Kessel or the captain?  Who is more valuable and indispensible to the Maple Leafs?  Who cannot be replaced?

Let me know…