Ultimately he won me over, but just as I settled comfortably
into his corner, things went off the rails for him in Toronto. Whether his game fell off or he was shackled
by Randy Carlyle’s deployment of him was a question of much debate in
Leafworld. I probably landed in the
middle on that one. No, he was not consistently put in
optimal circumstances under Carlyle a lot of the time, but Carlyle is like most
any coach: if you play well and do what
he asks, you’ll play. If not, you’ll see
less ice.
Grabbo obviously was out of favour with the most recent Leaf
bench boss, and that became increasingly evident as the 2012-’13 season (such
as it was) wore on. It was not a shock when the Leafs cut him loose this
summer.
Now it certainly took a while for him to land on his NHL
feet as a UFA this summer, but he has seemingly done so quite nicely in
Washington. He’ll still eat well at $3
million next season (plus his Leaf buy-out, another tidy sum), and he’ll have
the opportunity to play alongside some pretty talented fellow forwards with the
Caps. I have no idea how he will fit
under Adam Oates in Washington, who, while defensive-minded as a coach (isn't
everyone at the NHL level these days?) was a highly creative center himself for
many years in the league. Surely he will
let Grabovski play with some flair, which should be good for the veteran
Belarussian—and the Caps. (Given that Oates evidently lobbied to bring Grabovski to Washington, he must see Grabbo as a fit for the style he wants to play in D.C.)
Like a lot of Leaf fans, I was sad to see Mikhail go (as I was
when long-time Leaf Tomas Kaberle was cast aside a couple of years back). He overcame a serious language barrier and a
bit of an off-ice reputation from his time with the Habs (and his early days
with the Leafs, too). I thought he was someone who wore the Leaf crest
proudly. We know for a fact that he
played hurt. And so he deserves our best wishes as he looks to jumpstart his
career with the Caps.
(Again, I came to like Grabovski a lot in blue and white. That said, there are three possibilities that jump to mind when reflecting on why it took him so long to catch on with another club, despite the non-stop search for elite skill at the NHL level: his harsh words directed at his former coach at the time of his buy-out made some clubs wary that he may thrown them under the bus some day; teams were in tough trying to allocate dollars for players who weren't going to be first-liners or difference-makers; or, Grabbo is simply not as good an NHL player as some Leaf fans wanted to believe...)
(Again, I came to like Grabovski a lot in blue and white. That said, there are three possibilities that jump to mind when reflecting on why it took him so long to catch on with another club, despite the non-stop search for elite skill at the NHL level: his harsh words directed at his former coach at the time of his buy-out made some clubs wary that he may thrown them under the bus some day; teams were in tough trying to allocate dollars for players who weren't going to be first-liners or difference-makers; or, Grabbo is simply not as good an NHL player as some Leaf fans wanted to believe...)
It should be fun when the Caps come to town…you know he will
be motivated.
**
You’ve heard me suggest here before that the deals for both
Cody Franson and Nazem Kadri should/will get done before training camp. I still feel that way, though I get a little
uncomfortable when I hear Kadri talk openly about wanting to get his money
now. All young players seem to want to
make it all right away, and while that is perhaps a natural desire on their part,
it is also a tad premature.
Yes, the always-driving Doug Gilmour had protection in his Maple Leaf hey-day
and of course Bobby Clarke (below, right) never had to fight his own battles in Philadelphia
back in the days of the infamous “Broad Street Bullies”. That allowed Clarke to wield his stick as a
weapon, and he did so liberally. But Kadri is not in their league yet.
Bottom line with Kadri:
he is an emerging player, and may in fact be a star some day. There were moments, as I have said here
before, when he was the best player out there for the Leafs last season. He found those quiet places on the ice and
set up teammates with uncanny instincts.
So he was pretty darn good, though generally much quieter against the
Bruins in the playoffs—understandably, given that it was his first shot at NHL playoff action.
Of course he is worth a nice contract for a youngster seeking
his second NHL deal, still a few years away from the ultimate bonanza of free
agency. I will say this, however, as an
old (can I just say old-time?) fan, while holdouts sometimes trouble me, I find
it particularly annoying when someone as young as Kadri somehow thinks they
deserve a king’s ransom before they have really earned their way. The young man has one half of an NHL
regular-season behind him as a good player.
If he is already worth three million plus a season, I really am living
on another planet. I guess he and his
agent really think he’s worth it.
As I mentioned here previously, if he is as good as he
thinks he is, he’ll make plenty next time around. There have already been enough issues around
Kadri’s attitude and development over the years. Missing training camp, especially with
Carlyle wanting everybody to have their individual role down pat before the
season starts, is a bad idea for someone still in the learning/development
curve stage of their career.
But youthful ego and pride are funny things. I’d like to think wise heads will prevail on
the player’s side on this one, but I don’t like the signs lately.
**
On that note, I think Franson will sign first. I will add this, however: I believe it would
be foolhardy in the extreme for him to hold out. Of course he has the right to do
so, and I’m not in his shoes but if outsiders are allowed to air opinions, mine
is that he is at a very pivotal point in his career. He struggled in his first season in Toronto
under Wilson, and only signed here again at the last second when the lockout ended last
January. It took some time but he earned himself important minutes (and trust) here under Carlyle. With the
number of young Leaf defenseman chomping at the bit, it’s hard to imagine how
he will enhance his value by sitting out and losing valuable training camp time
with his defense partner and teammates.
I’ve come to like Franson as a player and hope he
stays. But he is another, like Kadri,
who should think long-term and realize that he is on the cusp of becoming a
real NHL player. If he shows he can play
well under the spotlight in Toronto, he will have no end of suitors for his signature
if and when he ever becomes a free agent.
He does not, however, need to see his on-again, off-again
career derailed by fighting over a contract at this point.
My advice to both players (who would not pay attention
anyway) is: sign, get to camp, show us all how good you are over a full season
with the Leafs (a supposedly improved Leaf roster to boot, which should make you both look even better) and at the same
time, you’ll be proving to the Leaf brass - and the rest of the NHL - just how
much you will be “worth” some day.
**
For those who are interested in my new e-book (available on iPads
via Apple iBooks/iTunes for now, other platforms in the weeks ahead) here are
the links for Canada and the United States.
It's only been available for a few days but the feedback I have received to date has been tremendously uplifting. If you get a chance to read it, I hope you enjoy it.
Posts
I'm of two minds on this. As a Leaf fan I want both Franson and Kadri to sign lower paying contracts and not hold out. It would be the best thing for the team and give them the best shot at being a winning team next year. However, this comes with a huge caveat from both of their positions.
ReplyDeleteIt is really easy for me as a fan to sit back and say take less money you'll earn more on your next go round but there is no guarantee there will be a next go round. There is always the possibility that either player could suffer a catastrophic injury and never play again or they could suffer a concussion and miss most of the 2 years of the "bridge contract". Or they could suffer a knee injury and miss most of the next year. In all three situations it is a given the team will come back with a lowered contact offer the next time as well saying the same thing, prove it and we'll pay you. What if Kadri get seriously injured and manages a 6 year career but struggles the whole time and is a shadow of himself? How much money does he leave on the table by not living up to expectations because of injury? It not that easy to say take less money, but I can pretty much guarantee that most of us would not take less money or wait till the next time. There are too many uncertainties in life especially when talking about millions of dollars.
The other little secret here is it is not Kadri's or Franson's job to worry about cap space on the Maple Leafs. That is Dave Nonis' job and he is the one who put the Leafs in this ridiculous situation with unnecessary trades and gargantuan pay outs to 40 point third liners. If either player ends up holding out or being traded it falls on no one but Nonis.
You make great points as always, Willbur.
DeleteThat said, let me try to provide an alternative view: yes, it is never the responsibility of individual players to help a GM out (though many Leaf fans thought Sundin somehow should have done just that years ago out of some kind of loyalty...). But I assume young players want to play with elite guys, and to have a roster with veteran, elite players, those guys who have already "proven" themselves over many years (Kessel, Phaneuf, Lupul, Gunnarsson, Clakkson, Bolland, McClement, etc.) need to get paid well. We can argue about some being over-paid, but they have to be paid well.
As for injuries, well, yes, that is a factor for all athletes. Some never even get to this point not because they aren't/weren't good enough but simply because injuries prevented them from advancing their careers. But does that mean they should all be given millions from the time they turn pro to compensate for possible loss down the road?
If Kadri sings a two-year deal for 4 million plus overall and is seriously injured, he would "retire" by the age of 25 having made between 5 and 6 million dollars already playing hockey. He would simply have to do what everyone else except professional athletes in the world do- work for a living, with plenty already tucked away, if he has followed good advice.
For me, it's not a question of young athletes doing favours for ownership or management. Is Kadri really worth 53 million a year after three months of good NHL play? Even if the Leafs had 20 million to blow, I would not give Kadri a cent more until he fully proves himself. This is the only time management has a slight upper hand.
But that's just me. I'm likely in the minority on this one. Thanks Willbur.
I agree that the management has the hammer here. In fact while I don't think Nonis has done himself any favours this summer this is also the one chance they have to keep contract levels from being absurd. We all know what happens when players hit free agency so I don't begrudge Nonis playing hardball here. The fact is though at market value Franson is probably worth over 4 million per year maybe as high as 5. Kadri is probably around 3.5/per. If the market says Kadri is worth 53 million a year then he is worth 53 million a year. Just look at the contracts signed this summer. Skilled puck moving players are at a premium in todays NHL. My biggest beef is that Nonis has left himself with such little wiggle room that this is going to be a tough, tough negotiation.
ReplyDeleteAs for what they get paid, athletes make what the market will pay them. I could just as easily turn around and say I think secretaries make too much money. At any given time there are only seven hundred players in the NHL. The scale of their pay is simply a reflection of supply and demand. We the fans demand a high level of excellence that only a very few players can supply. So I can see both sides of this argument here I just think Nonis has made his job much harder than it had to be with a bunch of moves that in my opinion haven't really improved the Leafs.
As for the veteran, elite players getting paid, the game is changing. More and more young players are getting paid the big dollars. If Kadri and Franson both think that they are in fact "elite" players then why shouldn't they ask to get paid like they are elite players regardless of their age? All across the league young talented players are getting big numbers on second contracts. That ship has sailed, teams have tried to put the brakes on this trend with really only the Canadiens succeeding in the Subban case and that only after a long ugly hold out. In almost every other instance the player gets paid. I sure hope the Leafs get this done because if these two guys are not in the lineup to start training camp that is going to be a huge set back for this team.
Neither Kadri nor Franson's agents played this right. The cap went down significantly and those who didn't sign quick (or file for arbitration if applicable) were screwed. There are few teams left under the cap enough to sign ONE of Kadri or Franson at even 4mm a season, and of those teams most are under financial constraints. There are very few options (khl excluded -- wouldn't THAT be a shocker!) left for either except to sign with the leafs for 2.5-3mm per.
ReplyDeleteYou raise a point I hadn't thought of, Miura. Thanks.
Deleteyou haven't thought out the most important issue (what other teams can pay), yet you make statements like "athletes make what the market will pay them" as if other teams will pay them what they want. The market is saying too Kadri "no one will pay you 5m", Franson "no one will pay you 4m", or there would be offers!!!
DeleteYou may have been responding to Willbur's points above, Anon.
DeleteSorry Michael, it was Wilbur who made that statement. My point is no matter what the compensation is, there are few teams (if any), that would offer these players what they are asking.
DeleteWell Anon in a true free market that would be true. However, we are in a closed market where other teams have little to no reason to offer contracts to RFA's. But when it comes to signing contracts player agents use comparables. That is they look at what similar players get paid when asking for their own rate of compensation. When I say the market says a player is worth x amount of dollars it is because that is what players of the same general level get paid. I would guess that Kadri is looking at some contracts that players got the second time around coming off years with similar numbers. The Leafs are probably looking more at the whole body of work. Where they settle is very much up in the air.
DeleteA 48 game body of work is not enough to justify the mega bucks contracts that Kadri and Franson are reportedly seeking. As an "old time" fan I am of the opinion that a player should be rewarded with a lucrative long term contract only after a protracted period of stellar play.
ReplyDeleteI like both players but the fact remains that they spent part of last season playing sheltered minutes and we have yet to see a full season of productive hockey from either of them. This situation cries out for a bridge type contract. As I have said before, both are in ideal situations and have the opportunity to have solid seasons which would deserve the type of contracts they are seeking.
Grabovski is a good illustration of the fallacy of doling out large long term contracts to players who have had one very good year. His play declined after the 2010-2111 season even though he was being paid as an elite centre ($6,000,000 from 2112-2113 to 2114-2115 and a $5,500,000 cap hit over the 5 years of the contract). Grabovski was a very good centre and provided numerous thrills but he was never worth the price of that contract.
Well said, Pete Cam. We view this "situation" much the same way. There will be plenty of time to earn the really "big bucks" if they are as good as they seem to believe.
ReplyDeleteWhile not great players, these are two good players . With their contributions last year their team made the playoffs. It just seems odd that those who contributed less (Gunnarson, Bozak, Orr, McLaren, Fraser) were signed before them. Also, Clarkson contract was unnecessary. If Nonis loses either player, I would say he miscalculated and has to be held accountable, his 5 year extension notwithstanding. A team like the Senators could swoop in, scoop up one or both of these players, while 30 year Mr. Clarkson begins a 7 year contract that will have the fans wailing long before the term is up. Anybody disagree?
ReplyDeleteNot to unduly defend Nonis, but historically, don't young players like Kadri usually get paid last, unless they are coming off a stellar three-years of NHL play when their entry-level deal expires? I don't think Nonis is alone in handling things as he has.
DeleteThat said, as I posted here at the time, the length and amount of the Clarkson deal was a bit eye-popping for what he brings. (Supposedly he could have signed for "more" elsewhere, though players always say that to make themselves look good. Who really knows?)
We'll see how others feel. Thanks for chiming in, Anon.
"That said, there are three possibilities that jump to mind when reflecting on why it took him so long to catch on with another club, despite the non-stop search for elite skill at the NHL level: his harsh words directed at his former coach at the time of his buy-out made some clubs wary that he may thrown them under the bus some day; teams were in tough trying to allocate dollars for players who weren't going to be first-liners or difference-makers; or, Grabbo is simply not as good an NHL player as some Leaf fans wanted to believe..."
ReplyDeleteI see this one from a different perspective. Grabovski was shocked by the buyout. He didn't want to leave Toronto. He married a Toronto girl with family in Toronto and had plans to stay here long term. I think he might have been one of those few guys who genuinely wanted to stay a Leaf and retire in that blue and white sweater. The fact that they were living in the same city as his wife's family was a compelling reason to stay. In short, he was already where he wanted to be.
When he got bought that all got thrown ou the window. He and his wife had to re-think his hockey career in terms of a place to hockey and a place to live. You want to find the best match for your hockey career, but there are other considerations. Are there lots of direct flights back to family in Toronto? How do attractions and the cultural life of the city stack up? If your wife has grown up in Toronto, she probably has some expectations.
I could easily see Washington DC being a good fit. I have done that flight from TO to DC a few times. I think it's about an hour and a half. The flight from Phoenix to Toronto is 4 1/2 hours.
In terms of attractions and cultural life Washington D.C. can compete with Toronto in a way that the Winnipegs and Edmontons cannot. D.C. is a great place. You have all the major sports. As the capital of the U.S. there is incredible things to do: the Smithsonian, national mounments, National Portrait Gallery, National Archives, events at the Kennedy Center, a tour of the White House (I have done the White house garden tour...National Air and Space Museum...If you have money there is lots to do.
I think Grabbo just waited for a place that was a good fit.
All excellent points, DP. And I agree, Washington should be a good fit for Grabbo. I just wonder if he actually received any other firm offers?
DeleteI heard Phoenix had a fairly solid offer. That's why I included it in the flight comparison.
DeleteI also heard that it took a while for Washington to come up with their latest offer and that is why this took a some time.
There is a good article here that gives you some sense of the time:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capitals-insider/wp/2013/08/24/patient-approach-paid-off-for-caps-with-mikhail-grabovski/
Liles goes to the minors, cap space opens up and both players sign. Leafs have a top 6 of phaneuf gunnarsson franson gardiner fraser Ranger, and a spare 7th man from the Marlies job open to whoever earns it. Looking at the roster and the new situation of having multiple skilled puck moving defenceman with size and skating ability on the leafs and in the system, john michael liles doesn't fit into the equation. Both kadri and franson will sign deals in the 2.5 to 4 million rollar range. Once liles is traded or in the minors players will be signed and everyone will move on. With a cap increasing every season until the next lockout, (this is the obvious trend) I would love to slightly overpay both players but stick them into longer terms. I understand the risk, but flashing an intriguing, longer deal now is better then overpaying severely or straight up losing them later on. Give naz and franson their dollars but force em to be here long term. They both are on the cusp of becoming special prayers in my opinion. Even if nonis doesn't see it this way for the contracts, based oh his previous moves as Leafs gm and the fact that Liles was a Burke signing, I think he will be gone in one way or another. Get rid of the cog that does not fit.
ReplyDeleteI'm left wo wonder, Garey, who will trade anything for Liles? He is several years removed from being a strong two-way defenseman on a healthy, consistent basis. The league always needs defenseman, and players with experience, but I'm not sure how the Leafs can move Liles. Maybe when another team is up against injury issues?
DeleteIf Kadri is already "worth" 4 million, what will he think he's worth down the road if he actually ever proves himself? I guess I still struggle with this new economic order in pro sports sometimes...
Not so sure the cap will increase as you say. Don't forget that the players shares is now 50% as opposed to 57% previously. The revenues would have to get to 4.2 Billion (mid-point) to have a 70 Million cap per team. That's an increase of 30% from the leagues’ best season of 3.3 billion! Double TV revenues, would be additional 250 million...double advertising (none TV) would be additional 50 million...that brings you to 3.6 Billion...you still need 600 million to bring you to 4.2 billion! 20 million per team would mean an increase in ticket prices of 50% for most teams.
DeleteYou may be right. I leave cap discussions to the experts, Anon- it's all beyond me!
DeleteSorry again Michael. I was responding to Garey's post. I known that the players have accelerators that they can use, but even with that, I'm not so sure, that the cap will increase as rapidly as some think. For the cap to stay the same as now, the revenues will have to increase by at least a 12%.
Delete"I'm left wo wonder, Garey, who will trade anything for Liles?"
DeleteNot many people realize this, but Liles' salary drops to $2.75 million in the last year of his contract. In the last year and half of his contract, I think he is very tradeable, especially if his numbers are good or a team has injuries.
It may not go up, I'm not an expert when it comes to the numbers, but it seems like they like to have gradual increases until the Cba expires and then a lockout, but this time around it could be different. Maybe they can't trade Liles or maybe they would have to retain some salary in doing so. I'd prefer to see him sent to the marlies unless their is some kind of no movement clause in his contract that prevents this. And no michael, I don't think he is worth 4 million right now. However, it could definitely be argued that he is equal or superior to Henrique. However, one more dominant season out of Kadri and a long term deal at 4m seems pretty good I would say.
DeleteIt's funny how a little tidbit comment can stick with you and 'pop out' of your memory in a later context.
ReplyDeleteUpon Grabovski's parting comments (pertaining to his 'deployment' by Carlyle), I recalled an on-ice incident where Mikhail was 'enraged' and attempting to get at some opposing player. After the game, Leo Komarov commented that Grabbo was "an angry guy"...
Given that Leo seemed able to control his emotions "between the whistles", it seemed possible that there might be an underlying psychological issue pertaining to 'anger management' when it comes to Grabbo. I also wonder if that might have begun to 'eat away' at him, creating the reported 'intestinal' issues from which he was reportedly suffering.
I wonder if these potential elements (and their impact upon other team members) have anything to do with the choice to use the compliance buyout on his contract.
I do like his never-give-up attitude (even if it appeared lacking in game 7), but wonder if that attitude is rooted in something we should hope he 'balances out' in his life going forward.
Perhaps the added pressure of playing outside the role with which he is comfortable this past season will give way to a better role for him in Washington. I wish him well...
Regarding Kadri, I was almost relieved that his prowess 'normalized' a bit at the end of the season, or he would have had a much better argument for attempting to get a higher contract than is likely at this point. It would have been harder to point out the protected role he played for much of the year without the 'reality check' at the end of the season.
Franson would be best served by a 2.5 - 3 times salary bump (from 1.2) to get past this low cap year - even if he's earned more than a 1 year bridge-type deal. That would show he wants to be here AND give opportunity to bump up the numbers on a longer term deal next summer.
It's always difficult to know what personal challenges any of us is facing, including professional athletes who are in the public eye. Like you, I liked Grabbo's determination and saw him as a solid player, but something went south for him here. How much of that was him versus the coach's utilization of him, others can debate (as they have).
DeletePlayers (and their agents) rarely seem to think about anything other than pushing for the absolute most they can get. It's a free world, so I get that. It's just not always sensible, in my view. These guys are nice players. Right now, they need to show over time that they are more than that. Thanks, InTimeFor62.
Hi Michael,
ReplyDeleteI also just posted an article on the Kadri-Franson-Nonis triangle, and it seems once again it's just that little can be done in a simple fashion where the Leafs are concerned.
Now I admit some bias towards paying players sooner than later. Maybe that colours what I'm going to say. I think to some extent Nonis has put himself in a bad spot here. Kadri and Franson have both had something of a bumpy ride on Toronto.
I agree, Kadri's body of work is not long and storied, but at the same time, he seemed to endure a ton of scrutiny, did what was asked by spending time with the Marlies, and managed almost a point-per-game lockout-shortened schedule. Of course he is young, he needs to develop further. That said, it seems fairly obvious with the Grabovski buyout the expectation is that Nazem will play second line centre and be counted on for offense - now, not in a few years.
I do see his position, in that he has done pretty much what was asked, and now he's looking for a commitment from the franchise, which other players of his ilk seem to be getting elsewhere. Ideally, yes I think a bridge deal is what's needed, because Kadri is somewhat a special case (limited NHL career, but expected to play a major role).
Franson is similar, except he already signed his 1-year, prove-yourself, bridge deal. And by year's end he was top-3 defender and leading blueline scorer on the team. I think the Leafs need him much more than they can afford to let him sit. Yes, there are many young defencemen in the system... but we've also talked about not rushing the Riellys et al.
Perhaps Ranger (3 years removed from the NHL) can fill in... maybe Holzer (who was brutal and not ready last season despite reports) will have a good camp. The flipside of course is if the blueline is a shambles to start the season and Franson is still unsigned... then what? They are deep in bodies, but not a great corps.
I think the part we have to reconcile is that while these are young players, and perhaps not as highly ranked NHL-wide as they'd like to think, in Toronto, we're talking about a number 2 centre and a 2nd pair defenceman... 2 positions the Leafs are not particularly deep at. That's the players' leverage - they are being put in key positions, but at the same time being told they can't be paid like key players.
I wrote I thought that really, $2MM/yr each was probably a good number. For Kadri, he goes from $810k base to a full $2MM guaranteed, and for Franson he comes up from $1.2MM. I do see the team's side of it, there is only so much money, and those are healthy raises for sure.
I think it's a big test for Nonis. I think these 2 players can be key guys going forward, and the GM has to find a way to sign them so they're happy, Moreover, he has to manage himself out of this tight cap situation. If he can't secure these guys, and Bernier/Bolland/Clarkson are not 'as advertised', while buying out Grabo and keeping Orr and McLaren, it'll be a major error in judgment for the GM, imo.
Mark- see my response below.
DeleteThe biggest positive (as courageous and willing Garbbo was in taking the hit, and getting up and continuing), is that the opposing players will be looking over their shoulders for Bolland, as opposed to lining up Garbbo.
ReplyDeleteThat's a really good post, Post. Thank you. Balanced and pragmatic.
ReplyDeleteAs you know, I lean the other way. I think young players (unless they are absolute superstars) should wait their turn. If they have to reach ahead and take on big responsibility and the team places them in a position of trust, all the better for them and their development. But they still don't get paid like established veterans who have helped the team actually achieve something of note. Kadri is still going to be paid largely on "promise" Later he'll cash in on actual longer-term productivity.
It happens all the time with rookies and early-career guys in the NFL. Unless they are first-rounders, they can be a go-to running back or receiver, for example, but they have to wait until they have been stars for a few years to get the mega-bucks. I think these guys can wait. But you'e right- Nonis has to walk a fine line here. Miserable players make for miserable teams. Everyone needs to walk away feeling OK. Thanks Mark.
Henrique just signed a 6 year 24 million dollar contract which gives Kadri some more leverage. 6 year 24 million dollar kind of deal would be nice to get done for Kadri. However, Kadris stats last year blew Henrique's oout of the water. However, upon a full body of work they are similar players with Kadri having more potential upside. One avenue not many people have talked about is a back loaded kind of deal where franson and kadri make a smaller amount this year but then a sharp increase after that.
ReplyDeleteI guess there are always trade-offs in these things, Garey. If Kadri signs a short-term deal and excels, maybe he's worth more than Henrique in two years- by a fair bit. It's so hard to forecast these things...
DeleteHi Michael,
ReplyDeleteI think Mark raises a very interesting point that hasn't had a lot of consideration across the blogs I've been reading: Franson has arguably done his short-term "prove it"-type of contract and seems to have made as compelling a case as one could in a shortened season. With that in mind, it seems that these two fascinating cases oughtn't be tarred with the same brush.
Regarding Franson, I'm guessing that term might be as much a sticking point as $$, even if it's only because one tends to affect the other. From the Leafs standpoint, they may well be wanting a short term due to the strength of the pipeline in behind Franson and because they want to be seen to have learnt from the error that was Liles' boat anchor contract. So even if they are forced to acknowledge Franson's done everything that was asked of him, they still wont be prepared to pay up because from his perspective, shorter term means higher $$.
Regarding Kadri, I am firmly in the camp that he hasn't proven enough yet for big dollars. He has performed exceptionally for precisely one half of one half of an NHL season. And while that should make us all very happy in terms of performance ceilings being established with very happy endings, it doesn't equate to a body of work. I feel for the kid, because you can tell he's been given several years of mixed messages from multiple NHL coaches and GMs (though one hopes Eakins provided a soothing counterpoint to that) and he feels he's done everything asked of him to date. Now he can point to Henriques' contract (where Henriques is presumably a comparable but slightly inferior player) at $4m/yr and legitimately ask what the hell is going on.
I've said here before that I think Franson will get traded by virtue of being more expendable than Kadri (given our prospect pool, not necessarily who's ready now), but it sure is becoming a wonderfully convoluted situation. Just what we need for August.
You've very artfully outlined how both situations (Kadri and Franson) have come to this point, KiwiLeaf, and why the players, and management, have both arrived at a different conclusion as to what is fair.
DeleteIf nothing else, it has given us some fodder for pre-training camp discussion. I still think something gets done with both. A holdout would be, I believe, bad for all involved. Sometimes relationships aren't always fully repaired afterwards, just like in arbitration hearings. Thanks KiwiLeaf.
I agree with you on hold-outs infrequently having happy endings but barring another player being moved or dumped into the AHL I can't see it. My personal preference would be to dump Liles and McLaren and Orr to keep Frason, Kadri and promote [insert likely 4th liner, D'Amigo?] but that wont happen on Carlyle's watch
DeleteA few general comments. First to people saying the Leafs can bury Liles in the minors to gain cap room, that is only partially true. Under the new CBA a team only gets 900,000 dollars cap relief max. So if the Leafs put Liles in the minors his cap hit would be 2.5 per year not 3.4. A help yes but not an overly big one.
ReplyDeleteI was thinking about this some more Michael and I think we have been looking at this all wrong. I think we have to look at it in the following way. With free agency occurring at 27 years of age and as low as 25 giving a player like Kadri more term at more money now is simply buying out his early free agent years and getting his most productive years at a lower cost. Yes he makes more in the first couple of years but he will make less than he would after hitting free agency.
As we know most players peak years are at 26-30 years of age. Lets look at PK Subban as an example. Everyone seems to love his bridge contract and hold it up as a example for Kadri. However, I think the move will cost the Habs more in the long run than it might have. So Subban signs for 2 years at 2.75 per. Then he goes out and wins the Norris trophy. So his next contract there is a very strong possibility he will sign for over 7 million per year probably closer to 8 for the max of 8 years. He will get such a huge number because he is only 1-2 years away from free agency and he was just named the NHL's best defenseman (whether he should have been or not is another question). But here's the bad part his most productive years are going to fall in the first 2-3 years of the contract then he will be getting over paid for diminishing returns as almost every player starts to decline after 30. If they had signed him to a 7-8 deal worth about 5 million per they would have overpaid for the first couple of years but have been greatly underpaying him for his most productive years. Over the course of the 10 years of contracts or so they are probably going to pay him almost twice as much as they might have got away with. I guarantee by the end of his third contract people are going to be bitching about how overpaid he is.
Of course the great trick to all of this is determining which players are actually going to get better. The gamble here is they sign a player to a big second contract and the player either doesn't get better or actually gets worse. So really it all comes down to player identification and realizing what you have. If you do have a truly good player it really is worth it to sign long term big second contracts.
A good example would have been David Clarkson. If he has signed a 7-8 year deal 4 years ago for say 3 million per that would look pretty good right now. It would have been a vast overpayment for his first 2 years but he would now be half way through that contract with a decent chance of being productive for the length of the contract as well as way under his current market value. Instead the leafs are just starting a 7 year contract in which he has no chance of being productive for the last half of it at a huge cap hit. Which situation would you rather be in?
I think the NHL GM's need to start looking at Major League Baseball. If your going to but up years of free agency early it will cost you more in the beginning but probably far less in the end.
The last factor it is a lot easier to trade away a young large salaried player that it is an large salaried veteran. Seguin got traded in a couple of weeks for a consistent 30 goal scoring winger. The Rangers are never getting rid of Brad Richards unless they cough up a lot of dough.
I think that's a very reasonable overview, Willbur.
DeleteI guess it comes down to this: do the Leafs think Kadri is "that" player- you know, the guy worth spending millions (plus term) on after a nice half-season of NHL play?
Sorry just read about Henrique new contract in the comments. I think it makes my last point for me. Yeah he is probably over paid for the first couple of years. The last 4 years IF things go as everybody expects will see his most productive years at a reduced cost. By the end of this contract the odds strongly suggest people will be talking about how he is under paid. A gamble by the Devils for sure, but that is why GM's get paid the big bucks to make they gamble on the right players.
ReplyDeleteI guess the big question is do Nonis and the Leafs see Kadri as a future number one center putting up big points or do they think he is at his maximum right now? If it is the first they should lock him up to 7 years for inflated value now but reap the big savings later. If not, hold out for the lower term contract and gamble that he won't get a lot better and demand the huge payoff in a couple of years. Big decisions here for Nonis.
I like Kadri, but he hasn't played a full season yet, and his effectiveness tailed off drastically once other teams started paying him some attention. I don't think he's at the point where he can command big dollars. But whereas Kadri became less effective as the half-season wore on, Franson became more effective. I'mnot so sure he doesn't have more upside than Kadri, based on what we've actually seen so far.
ReplyDeleteIdeally, they'll both accept a bridge contract and look for the big payday a couple of years down the road.
Players are impatient, and I can understand that, even if I don't agree with the thinking. Thanks Gerund. Nonis has some work to do!
DeleteGreat reading in the dog days of summer. I agree with Nazem is just not there yet and will need to prove his worth in a bridge contract. Q. How many ex-Leafs have a business or restaurant that feed off of the rabid leaf fans in the big smoke. Whoever is on this team when they do well will cash in, in so many ways. Somebody said it earlier, IF injury was to end one’s career, we can’t dwell on that but, to retire at 25 with 4 or 5 mil in the bank is a incredible kick start in life and London ON can always use another food franchise. OK, just spouting here but, greed seems to get in the way of so many silver spoon type mentalities. I hope he comes to his smarts and sign$ and proves his worth. Cody will be a Leaf for a long time I hope. Just want to see them do well. thnx for listening.
DeleteGood to hear from you, Steve. We all understand that players have the right to always push for more, but as I've said here, if he is really as good as he thinks he is, he'll make his money.
DeleteEven if he "just" signs for what the Leafs are offering, well, most people could retire on that....
Kadri only played a 48 game season, but does anyone not think he is better than Bozak (who signed for 5 years for $21M) ? If Kadri regresses, he will still be better than Bozak. Who is the #1 centre on the Leafs? Its Kadri.
ReplyDeleteI agree that a bridge contract, but above might be the argument his agent would put forward and it would be hard to argue with it. Nonis has himself in a real pickle here, fortunately Kadri is an RFA.
I guess we differ a bit on this one, Greg. Kadri may prove to be a true number-one center some day, but he's a long way, in my mind, from demonstrating he can be that - including through a playoff grind - at the NHL level. He does not deserve huge money now. But that's the fun of debating these questions! Thanks for posting.
ReplyDeleteI think the point Greg is making here, Michael, is that Bozak has never demonstrated that he's a 1C worth the name either, not that Kadri has.
DeleteAs much as I think the Leafs are over-paying (cost and term) Bozak based on what I've seen so far from him, I don't think they are paying him like a true number-one centre. Unless I'm missing something, that would be more like 7/8+ million a year over a long term.
DeleteI guess my view, KiwiLeaf, is that Bozak has ostensibly "proven" (if we can call it that) himself over a few NHL seasons. Because the Leafs will over-pay Bozak doesn't make me feel inclined to want to do the same with a guy who has played less than a hundred NHL games...
I think we are actually in agreement here. The problem seems to be:
Delete* TML have paid Bozak more than they want to pay Kadri, because Bozak is overpaid.
* Everyone knows that, even given his small body of work, Kadri is a superior player to Bozak.
SO what to do if you're TMLs?
Thankfully we're not GM's, KiwiLeaf!
DeleteThe Leafs have to take a page out of Montreal's book and let one or both Franson and Kadri sit until a reasonable deal is reached.
ReplyDeleteMontreal let Subban sit until game #5 and were awarded for their efforts. A bargain 2-year $5.75M contract and then a Norris trophy, despite missing camp and the first week and a half of the season.
I for one am willing to be patient. The players will come to their senses once they can't skate with their pals.
Hopefully you're right, Killawatt- holdouts rarely seem to end well for anyone. I don't like the lingering effects they can have on some players...
DeleteMy apologies for posting late on this Michael.
ReplyDeleteI've always been baffled a bit with Nonis' calm, almost laid-back approach with respect to contract negotiations. That being said, somehow he gets the job done, and has been quietly putting the pieces in place that he feels are needed to build this team. Many people may question some of those decisions, but Nonis (and his management team) seem to be working within a plan. We may not be privy to the plan, but anything Nonis has said he planned to do this off-season, he has accomplished thus far.
With respect to Kadri and Franson, Nonis has basically said that he plans to sign both players, and is not overly concerned about the cap space issue. Honestly I thought to sign both he'd need the cap space from either trading Liles (with contract sharing) or by doing a regular buyout on Liles. When the buyout window closed, I thought Nonis had missed his one opportunity to gain the needed cap space to have room for Kadri and Franson.
Many have suggested that Nonis can't sign both, and will be faced with trading one or the other. Nonis knows these are two valuable players and I strongly doubt he is willing to part with either one. He has never mentioned anything about considering to move either player. I don't know what Nonis is planning, but he does not seemed panicked or stressed out about these two contracts. Call me a fool, but somehow he gets it done.
As for Kadri and Franson's contract negotiations, unfortunately the agents often elevate expectations, and seek more than what is realistic. Both these players are still developing and have yet to show their true potential. Short-term deals (1 or 2 years) are in their best interests, as well as the teams'. If they can be patient (and their talent continues to grow), their next contracts could be quite lucrative. If the Leafs had the cap space now it is possible they'd be offered longer-term deals, given that later those contracts might be considered steals.
Franson has been relatively quiet and letting the business side take care of itself. Kadri on the other hand, may lack some maturity and thus getting bothered by the lingering contract negotiations. No doubt the agent (and media) is fuelling some of that apprehension.
No matter how things unfold, I just wish it would happen soon.
I think you're right, Don (TML_fan), Nonis seems unperturbed by the pace of negotiations. Franson is wise to stay uot of the limelight and see if his agent can get a deal done.
DeleteI don't know enough about cap realities to know what machinations Nonis may have to go through to sign both guys. I still think it gets done, but my guess is the players will have to rein back their expectations. The team doesn't have to give them what they want and in truth, these players haven't done enough yet to feel "owed" by the organization. Thanks Don.