So my uneducated guess is, as much as I like a lot about
Tyler Bozak’s game (not where he has been deployed—which is obviously not his
fault—since he has been in Toronto) and the things he can bring to the table,
including some sweet passes on occasion along with OK face-off and penalty-killing skills, I believe he’s gone.
He and his agent no doubt have a sense of his value “out
there” as a UFA, and they are going to maximize the dollars he can get. That they have apparently "offered" the Leafs an 8-year deal for less than 5 million a year is, in their minds, reasonable, I suppose. But I would be dismayed if Nonis even considered that kind of deal for Bozak. Anything more than 3 million a season seems like lunacy, to me, but I'm no General Manager. I realize everyone gets grossly overpaid in the NHL these days, and so will Bozak.
And that's the point: for the type of player that he is this could be the biggest payday he will ever get in his career. I doubt an NHL team will over-pay for his kind of player a second time around, so this is it for Bozak. He knows he has to make his money now. Two years from now, unless he progresses beyond my wildest imagination, he will be just another nice, middle-of-the-road NHL player who supporters will say is good at things that he's really just OK at (as I noted above, face-offs and penalty kill). What will he be "worth" then? So now's his time to make hay.
And that's the point: for the type of player that he is this could be the biggest payday he will ever get in his career. I doubt an NHL team will over-pay for his kind of player a second time around, so this is it for Bozak. He knows he has to make his money now. Two years from now, unless he progresses beyond my wildest imagination, he will be just another nice, middle-of-the-road NHL player who supporters will say is good at things that he's really just OK at (as I noted above, face-offs and penalty kill). What will he be "worth" then? So now's his time to make hay.
With that as the backdrop, here's my challenge to you: if you agree that Bozak is out the door (I
really do wish I had a prize or something to offer the “winner”), where will he
sign? And for how much (exactly) and for
precisely how many years?
To be the winner (even unofficially here at VLM in the most
informal of senses…) you have to be right about all the particulars: the team, the term of contract and the total
value of the contract. (I don’t care
about the annual salary breakdown or cap hit or whatever.)
You don't have to get the day he signs right (maybe he'll sign right away on Friday), though I suppose that would be worth bonus marks of some description.
You don't have to get the day he signs right (maybe he'll sign right away on Friday), though I suppose that would be worth bonus marks of some description.
So this is totally for fun—let me know where Bozak will sign….
Posts
I'd say Calgary needs a center and may have a hard time attracting free agents... so may be positioned to give more than we think is reasonable. At least Tyler is relatively young for their rebuild.
ReplyDeleteTherefore Calgary for 5 years for a total of 22 Million.
I think Nonis would say 'yes' to as much as 19-20 million for 5 years, but that won't be enough to satisfy Bozak's agency... I'd be relatively 'happy' to have him back for 4 years at 13-14 M absolute maximum, knowing that the cap will rise and he'd be trade-able down the road with such numbers.
I also like the idea of Clarkson, but not more than 4M per season... I think we will see a lot more opportunity to sign players for less after a few more weeks and hope Clarkson is still unsigned by then.
Perhaps a Carlo Colaiacovo for league minimum (on top of his buyout 1M per year) could recover some interest in his career (and be traded at the deadline so a Marlie could take his place later in the season). #possible-stopgap...
Calgary seems like a good "pick", InTimeFor62- I'll tabulate your vote!
ReplyDeleteJust heard about the Grabovski compliance (serious shocker for me) buyout that increases our financial flexibility. With Leiweke (sp?) in the mix looking for a big name like (bend it like) Beckham that he got for the LA soccer team... here's my blockbuster (based upon an article I wrote, then extracted parts in a couple comments):
DeleteWith the Letang signing, I think Grabo was bought out to facilitate for a cap friendly signing with Pittsburgh (wink, wink, nudge, nudge) as opposed to a trade with salary retention. I think a trade would then follow where we send Kulemin (to be reunited with Malkin) and (the rights to/re-sign and trade of) MacArthur. My article that never fully posted was called:
The concussion case for Crosby, where I felt Toronto would send their whole 2nd line for him when he was still 'questionable'.
In the new cap world, I can see the Pens needing to scale back their salary structure a bit and thankful to have a team take on a poorly (or un-) insurable risk like Crosby. The Pens didn't get past Boston, so may be in for a major transformation.
Probably just wishin' but fun to consider in a fantasy world!
We'll see where this goes, InTimeFor62- but you have a knack for coming up with some interesting possibilities!
DeletePS we also keep Bozak at a higher cap hit (4.5 for years matching Kessel's deal) that facilitates signing Kessel to an extension (that he may take at a minor discount to keep Bozak in town).
DeleteBringing in a Big name (with Crosby :) to be flanked by JVR and Clarkson) would allow Bozak to play with Kessel and Lupul for a pretty powerful One-Two punch (and a removal of unwanted public attention from Phil). Of course, this likely means that Kadri would go to the Pens and Bolland is part of a shutdown line that may need some Marlie fillers (or later UFA signings when nobody else has any money to do so!).
You might have to disqualify me for my prediction, but here it is: I am going to say Toronto, 6 years and $27 million. Why would Tyler remain in Toronto? I think that the Leafs would like to retain him and I doubt, given cap the existing pressures and crowded free agent market that other teams will want to offer much more than Toronto would. Moreover, Bozak enjoys playing with Kessel and consequently, a small hometown discount may apply.
ReplyDeleteVincent Lecavalier, as a bellwether for the upcoming free agent market, was able to get 5 years at 4.5 million. As much as I like Tyler Bozak, given the choice I would take Vincent Lecavalier in a Philadelphia minute (whatever that is). Stranger things have happened of course, but why Tyler Bozak would be worth more than Vincent Lecavalier on the open market would constitute nothing less than alchemy to me. True, his body is less beat up and he is younger, but c’mon. His agent’s recent proposal, I assume contained one or two more years of term than would be acceptable and the dollar figure, probably more trolling for suckers than realistic expectation.
Therefore, I am going to predict more flexibility from the Leafs than they would have initially hoped and the reality of the marketplace to dawn on the Bozak camp. Should Toronto pay this much and lock him up for so long? Of course not. Then again, will they? From where I stand it looks like the push is on to produce now, not later.
Interesting take, Bobby C- that 'number' and term almost feels as though both parties could go for it in Toronto, unless he gets something appreciably better elsewhere. I don't see Bozak as a 5 million a year (or even 4 and a half) player, but at this point in my life, salaries are so out of whack that I'm not much of a judge anymore...
DeleteMichael I say it will be the NY Islanders, 5 years @ 24.5 million. They have lots of cap space and have been known to make stupid decisions, re: Depietro. I would still like to see them trade Grabbo, centre ice still not strong enough and I think you will see a deal for a centre and Dman
ReplyDeleteGood to hear from you, purch. I hadn't honestly thought of the Islanders, but if he choose the UFA route, it probably makes as much sense as any other destination, if it's about money.
DeleteI do think Nonis is far from done his make-over, so your center/D forecast rings true...
Well, I suppose Calgary is a good a choice as any. We certainly know they have had an appetite for former Leaf centers in the past (e.g. Stajan). Not only were they foolish enough to acquire Stajan, they then quickly signed him to a ridiculous contract.
ReplyDeleteAs for amounts, and length, well hopefully Feaster has learned a bit there, and signs a lesser term. I'll say a 5 year $27M contract, but I wouldn't be surprised if they take a chance and go for an 8-year term.
Good question Michael, cause when I actually started to think hard on this, it was not a simple answer. Term, money and interested teams (with cap space) all factors. Should be interesting. If he does re-sign with Leafs, I hope it is no more than 4 yrs, at $3.5M per.
Bozak is certainly a useful player, Don (TML_fan), and I like him, but the world is full of useful players. Given that they already have quite a few "OK" players in the middle already, I would be surprised if Nonis feels compelled to pay more than you suggest (3 and a half). But as you also note, the market is hard to figure on this one. I wonder if we'll be surprised?
DeleteMichael,
ReplyDeleteI will make my team and term prediction in a moment. Have we really given enough credit to how much he like to play in Toronto, as well as how much he enjoys playing with Kessel? What other team in the league is going to let him play with such a talented scorer? This has to have inflated his production numbers, no? While we see him as a mostly mediocre, middle of the road, replaceable type NHL'er. Maybe other teams, Calgary, NYI, Columbus, Winnipeg, see him as a productive second line guy. Lots of pressure in other places to make the playoffs. I hear owners screaming about playoff revenue already.
My choice, Montreal. 4 years, 15 million dollars. They like ex-Leafs, maybe he can play with Colby Armstrong.
Montreal- I hadn't thought of that possibility, Jim. He is a good player, just not sure how others see him. Thanks Jim.
ReplyDeleteGrabovski just bought out.
ReplyDeleteMaybe Bozak stays.
Grabo would look good in Winnipeg or Calgary.
Thanks for the heads up DP- I had not heard that!
DeleteWith the news that Grabovski has been bought out there is now a hole in the Leaf's at centre ice.
ReplyDeleteSo, I'm guessing that Bozak now re-signs with Leafs - at $4.25 mill per yr for 5 yrs.
Or maybe the Leafs bring back Antropov...
More than I'd like to pay but as you say, Steve, with the Grabbo decision today, the picture may be different now for Nonis.
DeleteMy guess: we'll have Bozie in TO for a few more years. Which isn't a bad thing! He's improved his game every year, and his loss during the Bruins' series hurt us far more than most like to admit.
ReplyDeleteWith Grabbo gone, it feels like there's going to be plenty of action in Leaflandia. Like you, Michael, I think there will be more players moved, and I'm expecting at least one major FA addition.
I'm not sure exactly what I was expecting this off-season, Gerund O', but we can't say it's been dull lately!
DeleteHe goes to Dallas for 6 years at 32.5 million. Dallas has new management and they want to make a splash . They need to recharge a pretty good hockey market and some big UFA signings do that. I think there is no chance he comes back to TO. There is a least a couple different teams talking to him and a bidding war is quickly going to drive him out of TO's price range.
ReplyDeleteWith Grabovski now gone I am left wondering just what the Leafs are trying to do. With the Bolland signing the Leafs actually had some decent depth at center. Now they are back to square one with the 2 biggest needs not addressed. We still need a # 2 defenseman and a better center ice man. I sense the other half of the Bernier trade is about to drop. There are some teams that still need a number 1 goalie. I think Reimer is about to land in either Philly or NYI. Braydon Coburn is apparently on the market and I could see that trade coming off soon.
You may not be far off base, Willbur, on either front (Bozak to Dallas, who are clearly revamping the roster, or about the Leafs dealing Reimer).
DeleteAs much as I like some of what Bozak brings, I'm still not sure we are strong up the middle even if he re-signs. Even with he and Grabbo, I felt were were short at that position, in terms of high-end quality.
The Leafs have to try and talk up the Reimer-Bernier duo, but I see Reimer as ultimately gone, as I've said here since Bernier was acquired. They don't need two 25 year old first-string goalies, especially when they have gaping holes elsewhere. Carlyle's "win and you're in" goalie philosophy, for me, is not the way to build a championship team. You have your number-one guy and he's the man. Thanks for chiming in, Willbur.
I had a horrible thought. Boston traded Seguin and Peverl today, so they will be a bit short at center...
ReplyDeleteWhat if Boston signs Grabovski?
I think I'm going to be sick.
They saw him up close a few weeks ago in the playoffs, DP. Will be worth waiting to see what they do, for sure.....
DeleteI think Bozak will stay a Leaf for a long time now that Grabo is gone. A wild guess - 8 years @ 4.5 per later today or early tomorrow. It just makes too much sense - he's a very good 2nd line centre and the whole Kessel buddies thing, a bit of a home-town discount...
ReplyDeleteCrosby for Kadri, Kuli and Rielly? I'm not sure who wins that trade actually. A very interesting idea. Then get Clarkson to protect Crosby, Probably not gonna happen....
Dreaming as always :)
Hi leafdreamer- that feels like a lot of money for Bozak. I guess if he really is/will be an elite second-line center, paying that much would make sense....
Delete...in other words I'm agreeing with InTimeFor62.
ReplyDeleteIt's fun to speculate and InTimeFor62 comes up with some fabulous trade ideas, but I just can't imagine Pittsburgh moving a heart and soul player like Crosby- who really is a generational talent and a guy that brings a remarkable work ethic on the ice....
DeleteThanks for ruminating on my speculation! Though, I think Gardiner would be a bit more likely than Reilly, because he has shown what he can do in the NHL and I'm not sure that he's quite Carlyle's 'cup of tea'.
DeleteSure would blow the doors off the internet on Leaf sites if Crosby came to town in the Blue and White!
The whole idea just reeks of massive blockbuster potential... what if Reimer went the other way for Vokoun [or an alternative: as part of a package for Evander Kane... been percolating on that for a while... Reimer in Winnipeg would probably be of interest to the Jets and the Leafs might pick up a recently released Hedberg to cover the backup role].
So many possibilities... so little control... (you know - by us!)
Reimer in Winnipeg...he's well-liked there, of course. They have a "number-one", so I guess he'd be in the same situation as here. But lots can happen between now and training camp, eh, InTimeFor62.
DeleteI was happy to see the Leafs re-sign Bozak today. There was no one better available, so it would have been foolish to let him go. I don't understand the Clarkson signing though, particularly the 7 year term. With some of the moves Nonis has been making I'm starting to wonder if he's secretly on the payroll of a division rival.
ReplyDeleteOnce this all settles I'll post more on Bozak and the other recent moves later- thanks Oliver.
DeleteI'm really looking forward to hearing your take on it. Hopefully you can make me feel a bit happier than I do right now. All I can say at the moment is that I was a huge Brian Burke fan right from the start, but even I didn't think I would miss him as much as I do today.
Delete