Yesterday’s story was intended to be one of those
water-cooler posts—you know, the kind that has no basis in fact, necessarily,
but at least makes for fun conversation among fans when things are otherwise
fairly quiet in the land of the Maple Leafs.
And in fact, that was the
thrust of my post yesterday, that
is, if you were in Leaf GM Dave Nonis’ shoes, would you even contemplate
trading up to try and have a shot at one of the big names on the draft board
this weekend?
We all know there are at least four names that seem to make
scouts’ jaws drop, players who could be big-time difference makers for any team
that drafts any one of them for years to come.
However, though that was the intent of the post, it was
shuffled off to the bench because the Bernier deal hit just as I was posting
the story, and my brief reference to the trade triggered plenty of interesting
feedback and discussion on the deal—but not on my original question.
So I will ask you again (and maybe the question is even more
timely in light of the Bernier trade. I
mean, do we really need two number-one goaltenders in their mid-20s…how often
do those marriages work out?): if you
were in Nonis’ chair, a) would even consider trying to trade up? And b) if you would, what would you be
prepared to offer to make it happen?
Are we talking Gardiner? Reimer and someone? Phaneuf? Is that enough? Not nearly enough?
Let’s put it another way:
if it became clear that one of the top three or four teams would
seriously entertain “offers”, are any Leafs untouchable, if you thought you
could get your hands on one of the top three or four guys?
I’m guessing no one wants to part with Morgan Rielly,
himself a player (were it not for a serious knee injury before he was drafted)
that was almost a top-four guy himself a year ago—and a player some scouts feel
may end up being the best defenseman in last year’s draft anyway.
But other than Reilly, if you could get, say, a MacKinnon (I
can’t imagine why any team would even consider giving him up, but gain, for the
sake of discussion), what would you be prepared to trade?
The lines are open….(and if you still want to bat around the
Bernier deal, fee free…)
Posts
It may just be my philosophy, but to me, you don't want to give up good young NHL'ers for draft picks unless your team is in a rebuilding mode. Hopefully management thinks we've progressed past that stage.
ReplyDeleteThat being said, I guess the one exception would be if you think that there's a guy at the top of the draft that's a Crosby, Malkin, Tavares, Stamkos kind of player. Looking at the draft, I don't know if there's that kind of generational talent this year, though obviously I think Mackinnon and Drouin and Jones will all turn out to be extremely good players
Basically, unless there's a real gift of a trade that keeps the Leafs competitive now and gives us a piece for the future, the time for that sort of move is past.
Thanks mapleleafmjt- you've answered my question....I'm interested to see how Leaf fans see this one. I'm guessing you'll be in the "majority", and I look forward to reading other points of view as well!
DeleteMichael,
ReplyDeleteI hope the Leafs are beyond the trading of proven commodities for a shot at a maybe as a draft pick. I have heard for the last few years how over priced draft picks are with respect to asking prices. Where are the Leafs this coming season without Gardiner, Phaneuf and Reimer? Bernier may be good, but Seth Jones can't possibly replace Dion's minutes in the immediate future. No matter what you think of our captain, Jones is not ready for that at this time. I don't feel the Leafs are that deep anywhere in the system, to make a run a top pick. Unless of course, Colorado is willing to take face punchers and third liners. ha ha This kind of move seems to me like it couldn't come at a worse time in the recent history of the team. So by all means with my record of prognostication, Nonis will announce this kind of move tomorrow. I too have heard rumours that Clarkson is all but locked up as a Leaf on July the first. That would be a nice addition, in my opinion.
As I mentioned above to mapleleafmjt, I'm guessing the majority view is the Leafs should leave well enough alone and not consider moving good roster players in an attempt to move up. As I mentioned in my original post on this subject, this is water-coller talk, not much more.
DeleteI do wonder if it's something Nonis is even considering- given what some think of Drouin and MacKinnon in particular, guys who will likely be difference-makers.
The Clarkson thing has been discussed so much, it feels like a certainty. But I do wonder why people seem to be assuming the deal is in the bag. I'm not sure why the Leafs would have some sort of "inside track"...Thanks Jim.
It's an interesting argument as to what constitutes a 'Generational Talent.' I don't know how many would mention Toews in the same breath as Crosby, but Toews now has 2 Cups to Sidney's 1. What do Leafs fans want, really? Certainly after years of being mentioned in the same breath as Chicago and Boston as not having won in forever, management and ownership must realize with Chicago winning twice and Boston once and Toronto still looking in from the outside, drastic measures must be taken, and to me that means a MacKinnon or Drouin type up front. What to give up? Nonis has said there are no untouchables, and I would tend to agree, with the exception of Jake Gardiner. I haven't followed Seth Jones' stats but would think Gardiner would be the closest in comparison...
ReplyDeleteYes, it seems to be hard to win without having one of those generational players that you speak of, Sean. The Kings have Doughty and as you cite, the Hawks have Toews. The Bruins have Chara (though they didn't draft him, and he was not a high pick, though he is a huge impact player, of course. Pittsburgh is there every year with Crosby and all their high picks (like Malkin) so yes, in recent times, it's hard to win without bellwether players.
DeleteMy guess is there are two players anyone would want (the forwards). Wouldn't it be fun to know which teams are actually making a pitch?
I want to see a team like Columbus move up and take Mac + Drouin. What would THAT take? I live in Halifax and was lucky to watch the two of em for the past two seasons, it goes without saying but I think you could really build quite a dynasty around these two.
ReplyDeleteHi Louis L.- that's the kind of thing that would really make the draft fun...if one team could offer enough to get into a position to draft both of those guys, as you suggest. I know Columbus has some other good young players, but what might they have to give up to make this kind of thing happen? Do they have the assets to do it and still have enough left to compete at a high level?
DeleteI will be killed for this but here you goes....I would move Phaneuf, Reimer, Kadri and the 21st overall...players like Mackinnon- never become available.. and although a Kadri is a good up and coming player- and has the offensive flash the other intangibles arent there..just my opinion
ReplyDeleteEveryone sees the Leaf 'picture' a bit differently, Anon. Some feel the team should not give up good roster players for "the future". Others would like to get their hands on a truly elite player, which has been a scarce commodity in Leafland for a long time.
DeleteMaybe some won't like your proposal, but you have every right to express it. That's why I asked the question. If people think that's too much (and maybe it is, I'm not a GM), what is the value of a Toews, Crosby, etc?
My guess is the teams in those slots will pick those guys, because they didn't have to give up assets to get there, and any team that wants to move up would have to give up a ton. We'll see. Thanks for chiming in, Anon...
Okay I think if the Leafs can take Vinny's contract from Tampa and buy it out and then have him re-sign in Tampa ($30M savings to Tampa, I believe) as inducement to swap firsts that's probably the only way we get in the top 5.
ReplyDeleteTo trade for Colorado's pick - I don't see it happening but you're probably talking Phaneuf plus Gardiner plus our first and a second. And that still likely isn't enough. If it was, I would do it.
Hi Dan- the Lecavalier thing is too complicated for me! I have no idea how that would work.
DeleteIf (in theory) you were Nonis and were able to acquire Colorado's pick, who would you draft- one of the forwards?
It's not the right time to make such a move.
ReplyDeleteMany core Leafs are coming into their prime:
Kadri 22
Gardiner 22
Joe Colborne 23
Bernier 24
JVR 24
Kessel 25
Franson 25
Gunarson 26
Kulemin 26
Fraser 26
Phaneuf 28
Lupul 29
The time line is short. Lupul will probably start to decline and then in a few more years Kessel could start to decline from his peak. There just isn't time for many draft picks to develop before the core of the Leafs group is past their prime. They need to make a deep run in the next three to four years, while Kessel is in his peak years. You can't wait until Kessel is 30.
A better plan is to trade picks and lesser prospects for the veteran guys that can help the Leafs in the next 3-5 years.
If I understand your perspective on this one, DP, it's that the Leafs have already spent years investing in developing picks and their pipeline. If anything, you're saying they should now take advantage of what they have built and perhaps move some younger assets for veterans who can help get them over the top.
DeleteMaybe this is what Nonis has in mind, after his move to acquire Bernier and presumably solidify that key position...thanks DP.
"A better plan is to trade picks and lesser prospects for the veteran guys that can help the Leafs in the next 3-5 years."
DeleteThe problem with this is the Leafs are not one or two attainable pieces (Clarkson, Weiss, Statsny, Gagner?) plus maturation of Kadri, Gardiner and Rielly away from the cup - they are much further than that.
If I were Colorado I take Mackinnon with the first or trade down and take Mackinnon at P2 if I knew I could. Everyone is saying Seth Jones because they need D but Mackinnon is the safer play as development of D takes longer and are harder to predict. It's not like you would have any difficulty moving a young star center.
DeleteI think that's the balancing act for Nonis, Dan- determining exactly how "far away" the Leafs are from being a legitimate Cup team. That assessment impacts everything in your planning. Are you two players away? Or five?
DeleteOf course, and none of us know how these guys will develop but I would say best case we are a top defensive D man (or two really solid ones) and a really good centre away from competing. And that's if
Delete-Rielly, Gardiner develop into 60-80 pts combined
-Kadri becomes a legitimate 1C (50-80 pts)
-Bernier (or Reimer) needs to become a top 15 starting goalie
-JVR and Franson need to continue to improve
-Lupol needs to not decline more than 20% over the next 3 years
And as you note, that's a lot of "ifs", Dan.....
Delete"-Rielly, Gardiner develop into 60-80 pts combined"
DeleteI'm not so worried about Rielly, that might be a piece we have to give up.
Could Gardiner become a 30 point and fix his defensive limitations? Yes, I could see that.
"-Kadri becomes a legitimate 1C (50-80 pts)"
That's one of the big questions. Kadri looked like he was ready to take it to the next level when he was throwing passess up to Kessel and others in the Boston series.
"-Bernier (or Reimer) needs to become a top 15 starting goalie"
The stats say Reimer already is. He was 8th in save %, this past year. He was 8th in the playoffs. The guys ahead of him were Rask, Quick,Lunkquist, Crawford, Volkoun, Nemi and Howard...pretty good competition.
Bernier is a really good backup plan.
-JVR and Franson need to continue to improve.
I think that's probable.
"-Lupol needs to not decline more than 20% over the next 3 years."
I worry about this one, because Lupul is injury prone, but as long as he is ready to go in the playoffs, that could be enough.
The missing issue is Kessel. If Kadri becomes a true number one center, Kessel will reap some benefits. Does Kessel take it up a notch some year and have a Patrick Kane level playoff?
Sometimes everybody gets going at the same time, you get some lucky bounces and a team makes it to the third round or final.
I like your logic and agree on most things.
DeleteI don't see why we would move Reilly though - he could turn out to be a top 15 offensive defenseman in the league in 5 years and that's presumably when we'd be contending if we get lucky. What would you move him for anyway? Would have to be a Mackinnon-type.
Kadri was nearly a point per game this past season, and at 22 he's still going to get better. Can he do 50-80 pts for the next 6 years? I think so.
Kessel had a great year over a point per game and he can do that consistently with a Kadri (or Weiss/Stastny/equivalent) instead of Bozak.
Bernier I think the Leafs traded for because they see him as likely to be better than Reimer not as an upgraded backup. That's what the price indicates and that's what the scouts say and so I would go with that.
Hi Daniel- just to be clear, I did not advocate trading Rielly. In raising this notion of the Leafs moving up, I was looking for input from Leaf fans as to whether they would consider it, and if so, what they feel it would take to acquire one of those picks. I don't imagine Nonis would move Rielly for just about anything. Thanks for posting, Daniel.
Delete"Hi Daniel- just to be clear, I did not advocate trading Rielly."
DeleteThat's my idea. It's not that I want to do this. I just see Rielly as the youngest, best asset that might not be fully ready in two years.
It might be like the Schenn for JVR deal
Stamkos, Staal, Lucic and Seabrook are all UFA in 2016.
Reilly might be the kind of asset that gets you one of those guys.
My short answer to this question of what I would be willing to give up for a top three pick is "not much". It's easy to qualify that answer by pointing out that if a can't-miss superstar was available, I'd think otherwise. But let's be honest, if there were a player of that caliber in the draft, he would not be for sale.
ReplyDeleteI have to point out that when I say can't-miss superstar, I am talking about the single player that usually comes around once every ten years or so, like Crosby or Lindros or Lemieux. The players that you start hearing about when they are thirteen years old because they are so freakishly talented. A few other players have come close to that regard, such as Ovechkin and Kovalchuk, but if we are honest with ourselves, we have to admit that they could have panned out much less than they did, there were no guarantees.
I took the liberty of checking back at the first three picks of the draft in the first decade of this century (not going beyond the year 2009 to be fair to players still approaching their full potential) before responding here. It does appear that scouting has become better at least in projecting the top few picks of the draft, and we are seeing less Alexander Daigle's and Daniel Dore's going near the top of the draft. That said, of the top picks in this decade, there are a lot of solid, if unspectacular players on that list, some still with a lot to prove, and most of whom simply cannot be defined as franchise cornerstones.
We have a number 2 overall pick in the draft on our roster in James van Riemsdyk, for example. We of course have discussed him at length in this forum, and I think the consensus is he's a pretty good player with more upside than the Flyers gave him credit for. That said, it begs the question, what would we be willing to give up for a player of that ilk in this draft? We kind of know what these teams are asking for, and that is essentially the farm. They are looking for an established, top line NHLer, high draft picks, and good prospects in return. For us that may be, for example, Phaneuf, Reilly, and our own first round pick. For a really good prospect that may turn into Alexander Svitov or even Kyle Turris? Not worth the risk. For Sidney Crosby? Well, of course. But there is no generational player in this draft, so I say stand pat.
I can't argue with your assessment, Pete. Players like Lemieux and Crosby are obviously rarities. (And unless I'm mistaken, the Penguins did not make a trade to get those picks- they fell into their lap via a lousy season and a lottery, right? So it did not cost them assets to get those players...)
DeleteIt's always exciting (for any franchise) to think in terms of acquiring a player like that. Maybe MacKinnon is that guy this year. I don't know. Regardless, as you say, if teams project them being that good, they aren't being traded.
It's a fun discussion, though! Thanks Pete.
Most of the comments here reflect my thoughts. A Lemieux, Ovie, Crosby etc then ya you make a pitch but otherwise let's keep moving forward with the promising core of fast, young guys we have acquired over the past few years.
ReplyDeleteBesides you never know who might be available at 21. Isn't that where Rask was drafted? Of course who wants as a starting goalie a talented kid who spends five years sitting behind a Smythe winning goalie and has less than 100 NHL starts by the age of 25?
Hi Bmaximus- I guess the question is: is MacKinnon in that category (Lemieux, etc...)?
DeleteOn your last point: are you alluding to the Bernier deal (him seating behind Quick, as Rask did behind Tim Thomas...)? If so, I gather you like the deal...
Reimer + one of Dion or Kessel or Lupul + first in 2013 + first in 2014. This is a lot, and I would only make this trade for MacKinnon. I am not as convinced that Drouin will be a dominant player or that Jones will become a Norris candidate. MacKinnon I believe will become a franchise player.
ReplyDeleteHowever, my preferred trade would be to get into the top 5 or 6 to hopefully snag... Darnell Nurse. As a Saultite I've watched him progress with the Greyhounds and I believe he will eventually be viewed as the 2nd best player in this year's draft. The price: Reimer + Lupul + first in 2013.
Hi Saultite Anon (I like that- I worked up in the Soo back in 1978, so lovely in the summer...)- thanks for the comment. Wonder what it would take to get into a position to draft the youngster your mention?
Deletehow is toronto going to get there number 1 centre take some teams leftover's like stasny,they are in a rebuild still just because you made the playoffs doesn't mean the rebuild stops,we do not have enough piecies right now and if you people think adding older player's would help right now you haven't been a leaf fan for very long.moving up in the draft is the right move alot of leaf fans don't have a clue.toronto is going to build a champion not lets just be happy making playoffs
ReplyDeleteWe have opinions across the board today, Anon!
DeleteI agree with this guy - no veterans, let's keep building with young guys we're still 5 years away from being a cup contender and that's with a lot of things working. The other guy talking Lupul + Reimer + our first for Darnell Nurse who I think goes late top 10, that makes sense too. We could get him with Edmonton's pick but I wouldn't do it for Gardiner. Give them Liles, Blacker, and our first and we eat salary.
Deletethen it would not hurt to try
Deletejust going to talk a little about a couple posts : vancouver for example bb traded up in draft for the sedin twins look what that did for them look at the islanders john T and what that team would be without him
DeleteI would trade reilly or gardiner and our first and a player outside of lupul, kessel or jvr. i'd lean towards reilly as gardiner has already proven he can play at the nhl level and have above average scoring for below avg. ice time. reilly, as much as his potential can be, hasn't even played 1 nhl game yet.
ReplyDeleteeither way, on the leafs, you'd have mckinnon and reilly or mckinnon and gardiner, which isn't 1/2 bad. with finn, granberg, nilsson and percy in the wings, it's likely that at least one will turn into d4-6.
or phaneuf, first, colbourne and finn or percy. if they wanted grabbo, then i'd throw him in.
i mean the best forward that the leafs have drafted in the last decade are probably boyes and steen. mckinnon has much more upside than that.
if they wanted kadri as well, then i'd ask for somenone back like stasny.
I wonder if the Leafs would ever trade Gardiner, Anon? I always struggle with the idea of dealing a young defenseman. It's so hard to know what they might become...
DeleteReilly + the 21st pick + a replaceable piece would not get you the number 1 pick.
DeletePhaneuf + 21st pick + Colbourne + Percy would not get you that number one pick either.
That's the problem: the number one pick is going to be really expensive.
Anyway, Reilly at 18 was almost as good as Gardiner at 22 so he projects to be way better and don't think for a second anyone in hockey would value the 'proven' Gardiner over Reilly.
You watch them play live and you see Reilly has Gardiner's skating (but more straight lines and less loops and fakes that don't work in the NHL) with much better hockey sense (which you see in the form of better decision making, passing, actually shooting when appropriate, not getting caught out defensively, etc) and in a 15lbs heavier frame (at 18 vs 22).
Reilly is way more valuable than Gardiner.
The Gardiner/Rielly 'debate' is a fun one, for sure, Dan. All the better if both guys stay and develop their immense skills with the Leafs, I would think! (As long as we have some tough defenders to play alongside them...)
DeleteI agree with mapleleafmjt. My ideal scenario would be to give up the 1st round pick and a late pick whenever Nonis starts to worry that Bo Horvat is just about to go. It would probably only require moving up a couple of spots, if even that, so it should be fairly straightforward if Horvat is not the specific target of that other team. I'm perfectly happy to take a player I think we can count on for 25+ goals rather than give up a lot just for the opportunity to roll the dice on a potential (maybe) superstar
ReplyDeleteThere's a rumour that NYR may not re-sign Clowe.
ReplyDeleteWould you sign him to the Leafs if you are Noonis?
I absolutely loved Clowe about three years ago, DP. I can't make a fair assessment of his play this past season. I would very much want to sign the Clowe I saw a while back (size, some physicality and some offense...). Whether he is the same guy, I wonder, since he has been traded and now let go....
Delete