Does Nonis have to sign Kessel this summer, or walk an uncomfortable path instead?

In truth, I rarely (almost never, really) seek out mainstream media articles on the Leafs any more.  On the one hand, I guess I never want to feel like I’m “stealing” ideas for columns here.  And, well, I don’t honestly feel that the everyday hockey/Leaf writers out there necessarily have more insight than any experienced, thoughtful hockey observer.  So….

Now, those writers may have more access to information, sure.  But most of the time, what they “get” from players is dull stuff, not worth printing or reporting.  And what they “get” from their inside sources is inevitably self-serving (on the part of the “source” from any particular team, that is.  Those sources tell the reporters exactly what they want to see “out there”…Brian Burke used to do that all the time here in Toronto.)

With that as the backdrop, let's just say that I prefer to do my own thinking.  Always have.

All that said, one could not help (if they spent any time on social media outlets the past few days, which I’ve actually been doing a lot less of recently, much to my enjoyment) but have been made aware of a recent column in one of the major Toronto dailies.  In that opinion piece by a prominent columnist, now is the time for the Leafs to trade Phil Kessel, while his value is at its peak. (I did not read the article, but I did see the headline.)

Now let me say that I don’t simply dismiss such thoughts out of hand, and I’m thinking a few of us have raised all kinds of Leaf-related trade possibilities here over the years.  It's natural for us as fans to do that.  Maybe some of those possibilities have even included the once (still?) enigmatic Leaf winger with a world of speed and talent.

For today, however, I’m on a different track.  I’ve been wondering of late exactly when Leaf GM Dave Nonis has to make his move to lock Kessel in before Phil hits free agency a year from  now. (I realize I did not include a reference to Kessel in one of the recent posts here at VLM, the Nonis 5-point off-season plan.  But signing Kessel is surely part of the plan- as will be finding a replacement for Dallas Eakins, who will officially be named the new head coach of the Edmonton Oilers within the next day or so...)

We all understand the various scenarios in front of Nonis—a lower salary cap this coming season, but likely a higher cap after that.  Kessel seems to enjoy being a Leaf, but the chronically shy young man may prefer to find solace in the quiet of a less-frenzied hockey market, eh?  Do any of us really know what’s in a guy’s mind or heart?  I’m pretty sure not.

He and his agent will want to get max dollars a year from now, so any deal that he would be offered would likely have to look a lot like what both Corey Perry and Ryan Getzlaf received from the Ducks to essentially finish their career (all things being equal) on the U.S. west coast.  (Those who visit Capgeek or whatever it’s called regularly will know better, but I seem to recall these guys signed for like 8 years for more than 8 million a year or something along those lines…)

I’m always (and I mean always) leery of giving any player silly money to play a game—especially when you start paying anything beyond four years. You can never, and I mean never, project how committed, healthy or good a player will be half a dozen years from now.  Too many teams (and the NHL is now getting to be like the NBA, where all you hear about is GM’s  desperately trying to dump the “bad contracts” they gave to players) see disastrous results from paying huge, long-term deals.

But in a business sense, fans are captive, though we help generate the reality of astronomical contracts.  Because so many people bet on sports, follow sports, have a rooting interest in particular teams, we all, each in our own way (for example, simply watching games on TV, which boosts rating and therefore advertising revenues; buying merchandise; going to games, etc.) contribute to the inflationary spiral.

Regardless, absurd, long-term contracts, right or not, are the going rate in professional sports nowadays.  If you want to keep a player like Kessel who is in the top-tier of NHL talent, you evidently need to spend ridiculous money—whether, like the Canucks in the Luongo situation, you end up regretting it mightily down the road.

I don’t need to run through all the Kessel pros and cons.  My sense—and it is only that—from the comments I see here at VLM is that most Leaf supporters do feel Kessel has evolved a bit since he arrived here, that he is not simply a shooter/streaky scorer-type player at this juncture in his career.  They see some evolution in his game, a guy who sees the ice, makes sweet passes, can create havoc off both wings and is generally a dangerous offensive threat almost anytime he is on the ice.  While he will likely never become the consummate all-around player in the mold of an Yzerman or Modano (who themselves were mostly offensive-minded through the first several years of their careers) and other similar players who became true superstars by developing all aspects of their game, many do see significant growth in Kessel’s game. 

And hey, the guy is flat-out exciting.  Maybe most importantly, when it comes to talking “value” and whether he “deserves” a massive new deal from the Leafs, he played none too badly against his old nemesis and former team, the Bruins, when the Leafs tangled with Boston in the first round of the playoffs this past spring.  I was among those waiting to make my judgment on Kessel until I saw him play games that mattered, under the glare of the playoff spotlights.  I don’t know that he passed with flying colours exactly, but given what many Leaf supporters expected him to do against the Bruins, I’d say it was pretty close to that.

Now whether this means he will be a sure-fire big-time playoff performer in the years ahead for the blue and white, I don’t know.  (It was one series that, c’mon—and we all know the back story—he should have been highly motivated to play in.)  Maybe—maybe not. 

But my question of you today is: does Nonis have to make something happen pronto, to secure Kessel’s signature on a contract before we get into that awkward and uncomfortable scenario where a player is somewhat lame-duck, and finally decides he’d rather play it out until free-agency and see “what he’s worth” on the open market? (Also, while that player is often being ticked off that his current club is not willing to give him the contract that he thinks he is worth for all the years of effort, productivity and service the player has provided…)

While you’re at it, by all means feel free to opine on the notion of trading Kessel.  Goodness knows the Leafs still have needs that we have discussed here a gazillion times—a big, talented center and a stud defenseman to mention but two areas of chronic ‘lack’.  Would Kessel net us one of those pieces in return? 

Of course, the related question is:  but at what cost?  Would we simply be swapping a talented, first-line guy (who is still young and just now entering his prime, presumably) for another high-end talent, but simply leave ourselves a huge hole on the wing with Kessel gone?

So for you, how big a priority is re-signing Kessel—at all, and from a timing context, doing it this summer? If you can’t sign him before training camp, when the player really stars to hold the proverbial hammer as the clock ticks down to the following July, do you then consider dealing him, out of fear that he will walk next summer and leave the franchise with nothing near a championship to remember after all his years in Toronto (and yes, lingering memories of the 'cost'  - Seguin and Hamilton - as it turned out)?

I realize all these decisions have to be made in the context of overall organizational priorities and objectives.  Kessel is but one (albeit significant) piece of the emerging Leaf puzzle.  Everything has to fit- and not just in terms of money.

I have my own views, but I’d like to read your assessments.  Let me know what you’re thinking on this one….