How the Maple Leafs’ (and Carlyle’s) ‘experiment’ year can end well….

One thing has become clear to me during the first 22 games of this 2012-’13 NHL mini-schedule when it comes to the Maple Leafs: this season is not really about this season.  In fact, my sense is that for Randy Carlyle, while his “grand scheme” is under construction, this has been, by design, a season of—and for—absolute experimentation.

What do I mean?

Well, no one, least of all Carlyle, expected the F-troop squad he took on late last season - with their chins hanging down just above the ground - to be contending for a Stanley Cup this season.  So he is using these regular-season games merely as a measuring stick—a barometer to help determine what else he and the organization have to do to get this team ready to compete for something, well, more serious.

Given that the Cup is not the realistic objective this spring (have you seen the Hawks plays?), yes, we could, for example, be playing Mike Komisarek right now on defense because he has an expensive contract, but Carlyle has something else in mind.  He believes he knows what he has in Komisarek, and it’s not likely the hard-working veteran will get “better’ in the years ahead.  So, he sits.

Too, we could have plucked a veteran free-agent goalie at a bargain-basement price before the season got underway, but I sense the coach wanted to see for himself, first-hand, exactly what he had—and who might be able to, in the years ahead, deliver exactly what Carlyle needs. So though we had "unproven" goalies in Reimer and Scrivens, Carlyle likely figured, “let’s see what I’ve got.  Might as well find out".

What about that minor-leaguer, Mike Kostka (who Carlyle probably barely knew existed before this year)?  Same thing.  Kostka looked great with the Marlies, so let’s see if he can play at this level.  If not, what have the Leafs lost, in a season that began with zero expectations anyway.

You can go down the list.  Colton Orr worked his tail off to try and “re-invent” himself.  Besides fulfilling an organizational promise that had apparently been made to him, how did it hurt Carlyle to give the veteran winger, known primarily as a fighter before, extended playing time?  It hasn’t, yet.

We have lots of wingers in the system but when Nonis picked up Frazer McLaren, the newcomer did not go to the Marlies.  He got a shot right away with the big club.  I’m sure that’s what Carlyle wanted.

And Mark Fraser, for the most part a career minor-league player, earned a roster spot—and he’s still here.  He has demonstrated he is a “Carlyle” kind of player.

My point is, Carlyle knew he had lots of time left on his own contract, and the organization was not going to upset the apple cart any further than it already had in replacing Brian Burke at an admittedly awkward time.  Carlyle is secure—and knows what he needs to get from this team to compete at a high level.  Of course he is shooting for the sky this season (any coach does) but even if the Leafs don’t make the playoffs, they are learning not only Carlyle’s “system” but the requirements for doing the job he wants done. 

Most significantly though, regardless of his 'x’s and o’s' (which is not a complicated system), it is the work ethic that has been inculcated in this roster that matters most.  Every "system" is just a slight variation on another.  But the willingness to compete for pucks, block shots, fight, and stand up for one another is an attitude that has precious little to do with any particular system of play.  It’s more about heart and desire than anything else.

That said, those characteristics, which are obviously a huge part of the  attitude a player competes with, really come to the forefront when you are in close games.  And when you’re making simple passes and safe, smart plays, that approach keeps you in games. 

Yes, character matters a lot in Carlyle’s world.  And that’s a big part of what he is assessing this season.  Beyond physical skill, he wants to discover who has the willingness to do the hard little things that win games and, as a result, help create that winning atmosphere which inevitably leads to dressing room chemistry.

From there comes success.  And success breeds more success.

So while some fans are worried about how he configures his forward lines, why certain guys aren’t getting more power play time, his line match-ups, zone starts for particular players and why Kostka and Orr are playing so much, those things are not bothering me in the least.  I’m not a coach.  I don’t have a pulse on this team.  He’s the coach.  He does.

Carlyle has a grander plan in mind.  I fully expect Jake Gardiner and Morgan Rielly to be here next season.  Carlyle loves guys with Fraser’s spunk and smarts (not to mention true, old-fashioned toughness, which is way more than just dropping the gloves…) so I expect Fraser will have a key role going forward as well.  I don’t think many other guys are irreplaceable on defense, or untouchable on the trade market, but I do think Phaneuf will still be here for a long time, whatever his flaws.  That’s a core group of four defensemen right there.  Injuries are always part of the game and nothing is guaranteed, and you need a lot of depth on defense to be successful come playoff time.  But that’s a start.

That means that next season, Gunner and Franson could be here or he could be gone. They may be part of the “top-six”, but who knows?  Will Holzer be the better match to play with Phaneuf?  Does Kostka fit down the road?  What about the young defensemen currently playing under Eakins with the Marlies?

And it’s no different on the forward lines.  My guess is Carlyle is not a coach who falls in love with his players.  Meaning, he is always looking to make the team better. If you do what he asks, and do the job laid out really well, you’ll play—probably a lot.  If not, it’s next man up.  That’s how Carlyle has handled injuries this season.  Reimer’s out?  Next guy (Scrivens) goes in.  Gardiner isn't ready?  There are lots of other guys to fight for his minutes.  Lupul misses significant time and Frattin steps in and, JVR moves up.  The team really doesn’t miss a beat.

Grabovski being used primarily as a checker?  Just  part of the plan—for now.  It could change, if necessary.  But it’s a test for down the road, too, to see where Grabovski can fit, as needed.  Maybe he becomes a guy Carlyle relies on for more offense.  Maybe he will have a career here as a high-end ‘hybrid’ center, like a smaller Bobby Holik.  We’ll see. Maybe he’ll be traded to bring in players that will fill other needs.

There is no real risk this season.  Expectations, let’s be honest, were miniscule.  We were coming off nine seasons of misery.  Burke was fired on the eve of the new season.  Many just wanted to see the team ‘tank’ so we could grab another high pick in what is projected to be a really good draft crop this coming summer.

But that was not in the cards for Carlyle, not that that kind of thinking ever is for coaches or the immensely competitive individuals who play hockey at this level.  He had to drive this team to another level in terms of effort and attitude.  He needed to find a way to put his players, individually, in a place where they had the best opportunity to succeed and then see how they responded.  As a result, to this point at least, the team has had success, relatively speaking—because of the aforementioned change in attitude, and because individuals were put in the best chance to achieve individual success.

The goal of course, is long-term team success.  Being a contender every season.  Forget we fans for now and what we may "want":  this season is simply an audition for the coach. (If you add the time Carlyle had behind the Leaf bench last season and what will be played this year, that still totals less than a full NHL season for him...)

Do the Leafs need some pieces to become a legitimate contender for something more than a lowly playoff spot and a first-round exit?  Of course.  But as I’ve said here for years, and maybe especially this season, the Eastern Conference is wide open, with flawed rosters all around.  The Leafs are in the mix for a playoff run.

That said, this season does not have to end in a playoff berth for it to be successful, as long as Carlyle will get the insider (real “insider”, not the media kind) “intelligence” he has been seeking by giving all the different guys who have spent time with the Leafs a chance to show what they’ve got.  Again, he is building for the future, but not some future five years off.  That’s not necessary. Yes, it’s important for Nonis to think long-term, but this team can also position itself to be an impact team by next season in the Eastern Conference. 

And that’s why things can be accelerated a bit by making the playoffs this season.  Because if they do, then all those young players will get a chance to really see what NHL playoff hockey is about.  The grind, how space and time are hard to find, how tough the checking is.  That’s when flaws are really exposed, and let’s be honest, our flaws have not been exposed this season on a consistent basis.

No, a playoff spot is not necessary but it would go a long way toward establishing a winning culture here.  It doesn’t matter, in a sense, whether all these same players are back next year.  In fact, in today’s NHL that is unlikely.  While some significant continuity is important, of course, change is probably required to be a truly elite squad.  But we are slowly getting there.  And the fact that Carlyle has looked at this season as an experiment—and will have all summer to assess the pros and cons of what he has seen—is a very good thing.