The NHL returns; looking at the Maple Leaf roster—tweaks, predictions and player ratings Part I: Today, the back end

Let’s assume (smiley face inserted here) the NHL "tentative" agreement is formalized in the hours ahead.  A season should/will begin my January 19 at the latest.  Brian Burke has not been alone in preparing for this state of “readiness”.  You can bet NHL General Managers across the board have been watching the bobbing and weaving of the ever-going-sideways-it-seems labour talks with great interest, because each team has a lot of work to do in a short period of time to get ready for a season that, suddenly, is around the corner.

Yikes.

Free agents still un-signed, RFA’s playing all over the hockey universe.  New cap numbers to deal with, teams already in cap hell without having done anything in months, and sticky situations abounding everywhere. (Such as Roberto Luongo still being number-two in the goaltending pecking order on the Canucks roster.)  You know what, though?  While many are rightfully still angry, there will be tons of fun for forgiving fans to follow, anticipate, predict and worry about now that it appears we will finally have a season to bat around.  (One final lockout comment: both sides in this silly dispute were smart  enough to eventually make a deal because they are greedy.  Greed initially kept them apart, but ultimate greed won the day, in that they know they need each other to make their millions now.  Nobody makes money when you don't play.  In fact, all you do is lose money.  Can you ever really make up what you actually lost, owners or players?  Without a deal, we would be talking a brave, new hockey world-  legal battles and a very different NHL, maybe one we wouldn't recognize, if the same league ever started up again.)

So an uneasy truce will lead to an unhealthy alliance, rather than a great partnership between the owners and players.  But the truth is it was never much of a partnership anyway, so we move on—and so will the players and the owners.

All this said, how much fun, for example, will the trade deadline be this year?  It's always something to look forward to, and though some deals get done earlier than the deadline, of course, this spring should be something out of the ordinary.  Because of the very peculiar late start to what will be a short (48 game?) season, we can assume the customary trade deadline will be pushed back well into March.  So we will, initially, have 30 teams bustling around trying to get ready for opening night, and then a whole new re-jockeying for position at the deadline as they all prepare for the sprint to the finish and the playoffs.   Will we have more teams in the playoff race than usual because of parity—and because they haven’t had time to play themselves out of the playoff picture, and thus we see fewer trades?  Or will teams still need to move salary and prepare for the cap in 2013-'14?

It could be awfully entertaining.

But let’s bring this close to home.  Some think the Maple Leafs are in great shape because they only have a certain amount of money committed to existing contracts.  I’m not enough of a roster planner/money guy to know if that’s such a great thing with a season potentially only days away, but I’ll assume the Leaf brass has known exactly what they were doing while getting ready for—and waiting out—this CBA dispute.

So how does the roster look?  I’ve said here before that in my view the Leafs do not have a strong roster overall, but if certain guys play to their potential and goaltending becomes a strength not a weakness, in a short season Toronto can make the playoffs in a parity-riddled Eastern Conference.

This may be a good time to set some “grades out” as well, without the emotion of a winning streak - or another wasted season - at our back. 

As best I can figure it out, this is the roster.  Here goes…

Goal*

James Reimer

Ben Scrivens

This position may hold the biggest “asterisk” of all for we Leaf faithful.  Some fans love Reimer.  Others see his flaws, question his glove hand, his consistency and of course, his health. I’m a Reimer guy, in the sense that I have loved his attitude in this market from Day One and the fact that I really think he can play.  I believe that, if he is healthy and plays like he has shown he can, albeit briefly, he would be a perfect guy to face the ups and downs of a serious playoff run down the road, when the Leafs get to that point. I see a goaltender who has been through a difficult season and a steep "learning" curve in this market and is still strong mentally, much like a Felix Potvin or Curtis Joseph before him, who could put bad games behind them quickly, especially at playoff time.

Scrivens can play, too.  If the question is:  can the Leafs get to the playoffs with Reimer and Scrivens in the next year or two, I think the answer is yes.  But if the question is can they ever win a Stanley Cup with these guys?   In my view, the answer is no.

This brings us to the months-old Luongo debate.  I personally am not a fan of bringing him in, for reasons I’ve posted here before.  But I recognize that management may want (despite their public support of Reimer to the contrary) an immediate upgrade (many fans, too), and he is indeed the most prominent goalie “out there”.  Does the new CBA alter this possibility, because of Luongo’s lengthy contract?  I don't know.  Some of you who follow numbers and potential contract “impact“ know a lot better than I.

But as a simple hockey transaction, Luongo would give the Leafs a shot in the arm, and he likely wants to prove something to the Canucks.  So yes, he may help us get into the playoffs in the relatively weak Eastern Conference.  But I do wonder what we would have to give up to get him?  Gardiner’s not going anywhere.  Can the Canucks make a hockey trade or do they need/want a salary dump? (And does the fact that Luongo has been working out with ex-Leaf goalie coach Francois Allaire for the past few weeks make it more or less likely he would agree to come to Toronto?)

As we speak, it's Reimer and Scrivens.  In 48 hours, we may be having a different goaltending conversation.

Defense

Dion Phaneuf

Jake Gardiner

Carl Gunnarsson

John-Michal Liles

Paul Ranger

Mike Komisarek

Dion Phaneuf is our top guy, and that makes me nervous.  While not, in my mind, an NHL All-Star (not even the mid-season variety) he is a good NHL rearguard.  Yet I saw too many guys go around him like he was standing still last season to make me feel he is anything like a true first-line shutdown defenseman.  He started the 2011-’12 season on fire, but cooled off considerably along with the rest of the team as the season wore on.  Is Phaneuf a front-line guy getting better, or is he what we have already seen?  For me, he is at best a “B+” NHL defenseman and was not even playing at that level by the end of last season.

I don’t have to describe Jake Gardiner to any of you.  Anyone who has seen the Leafs last season or the Marlies this year knows what this young man can do.  Smooth skating, calm, nerves of steel, excellent on-ice vision.  He is smart, an elite player—and still getting better.  The recent head-area injury is a concern, but that is today’s NHL.  Everyone is one hit away from missing a lot of hockey.  It’s just the way it is.  As I’ve said before, my only hesitation in crowning Gardiner a star is this: I don’t know how good he will be in front of his own net (and in the corners in our zone) when the play gets serious in the spring and playoff time.  Two all-time "offensive" Leaf defensemen, Borje Salming (left) and Tomas Kaberle, often struggled in front of their on net, in terms of their inability to be physical and take out opposing forwards.  In their cases, they usually made up for it with their passing skills, ability to skate away from trouble and their offensive prowess (and in Salming’s case, his guts and shot blocking ability…).  Gardiner has some of those same offensive abilities.  But  for Gardiner, the jury is still out.  For very different reasons than Phaneuf, Gardiner is also, for me, a B+, but with a higher ceiling, of course.

Carl Gunnarsson is one of my favourite Leafs, for a bunch of reasons.  I like guys who don’t say that much but just play the game quietly—and well.  He generally minimizes his mistakes, and while I sense he could be more “offensive”, he focuses on making his partner better and trying to keep the puck of out his own net—not something we have been very good at in Toronto the last few seasons.  I’m not sure he will ever evolve into a “mini-Lidstrom” but I like him on our blueline, and would be disappointed if he goes the other way in a big trade.  He’s a solid B, with some upside on a better team with an improved supporting cast.

Now things get tricky.  Does Paul Ranger slide in here as the “number four” Leaf defenseman?  While he has certainly contributed to the Marlies throughout the first half of the current AHL season (and brings valuable NHL experience to the table) I can’t really say if he will be a major upgrade over what we have had here recently (Beauchemin, Schenn, Franson, et al).  I can’t grade him fairly, but I am slotting him here because Paul Hendrick told me and Matteo Codispoti (We Want a Cup) on a recent “Leaf Matters” podcast Ranger may well slide in here.  It makes some sense to me.

If you had asked Leaf fans for a “grade” on John-Michael Liles exactly twelve months ago, my guess is it would have been a high B or even a low A.  Most Leaf observers were pretty impressed with his puck-moving ability and his skating.  A serious injury almost shut down his season, and seemed to impact his confidence and curtail his effectiveness once he did come back.  For now, I’ll give him a B-, hoping he can hit that higher rating point.  But I wouldn’t argue with those who put him in the C+ category, either.

Mike Komisarek is a guy I respect as a hard-working NHL player.  He’s tough and  seems to possess so many of the attributes you want on your team, including being a legit team-first guy.  But years into his time here, (and I spent the last two seasons saying he would eventually play like he can) I can’t rank him higher than a C-.  Can he do more, with Randy Carlyle as his coach?  Perhaps.  Will he be bought-out?  We'll know this week.

I have no idea if Cody Franson is coming back.  Do Mark Fraser or Mike Kostka have a shot at cracking the Leaf roster?  What about Gysbers, Holzer and the kids—like Blacker?

I’ve already made my feelings known about Morgan Rielly in my recent post here.  I don't even want to see him at Leaf camp, but I’ve been out-voted by a rather more important segment of Leafworld:  the Leaf coaching staff and the management brass. 

Clearly, rosters could change between now and January 19^th, if that is indeed when the NHL season will start—but how radically?  Is there really time to make a lot of moves instead of mostly going with the status quo?

We’ll see.  But for now, I’m saying it will be Reimer and Scrivens in goal, Phaneuf, Gardiner, Gunner, Liles and Ranger as the sure-first five defensemen.  After that…

Tomorrow:  the Leaf forwards