The Toronto Marlies prospect myth

Who knows?  NHL hockey may actually return, if egos can be set aside long enough to sign a deal.  In the interim, in case you haven't visited for a while and  missed these recent VLM posts...

• An interview with Down Goes Brown

• The Maple Leaf Christmas "Noel"

• The day Sylvain Lefebvre, a solid ex-Leaf, was traded in the summer of '94, and why it hurt losing him more than Wendel Clark

• Former Montreal great Jean Beliveau and his thoughts on the lockout

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It’s a lot of fun to watch the Toronto Marlies whenever I get the chance.   They are a well-coached, well-prepared team under Dallas Eakins.  This season in particular—in the wake of the NHL lockout—a number of NHL teams have stuffed a ton of NHL-caliber players “down on the farm”.  Oklahoma City  (the Oiler farm club) and the Marlies are but two examples of AHL teams with better-than-usual rosters.

The Marlies are at the top of the chain so far this season in the American Hockey League, sitting in first place in their Conference as I write this.  In fact, they have too many guys on their roster and when healthy, they have to sit good players most nights. We’ve discussed here in the past that as Leaf enthusiasts, we often strain mightily to project solid NHL futures for many of the “assets” and “prospects” that Burke has acquired over the past four years.  While there is certainly reason for hope, given the skill set of a number of Marlie/Leaf hopefuls, I still can’t shed a nagging sense that maybe, just maybe, there aren’t quite as many future NHL’ers in the “system” as we would like to think.

I know Leaf fans don’t like to hear it, but it is the truth:  virtually every NHL team has some nice-looking prospects in their minor-league system, or playing junior hockey.  Whether enough make it—and play at a high or at least useful level in the NHL sooner than later—is the real question.

As I posted here recently, Gardiner, Kadri and Frattin are already, in my mind, NHL’ers.  They have been around far too long to be simply “prospects”.  Kadri was drafted in the summer of 2009, Gardiner has played a full season in the NHL and Frattin soon turns 25.  These guys are far from kids, though there is no question they have plenty of time and room to develop and get a lot better.  That part is the good news.

But beyond that obvious trio, who from the Marlies do you think will set the world on fire when they get to the big club—if they even get there?

People speak glowingly these days of Kostka and Ranger and sure, I don’t doubt they could be on an NHL roster.  But are they appreciably better than what we have now? Phaneuf, Gardiner and Gunnarsson surely have permanent top-four spots here (barring a Gunnarsson trade).  Leaf fans are enjoying the “who do we buy out debate?” between Liles and Komisarek but I still ask, what will Kostka, Ranger, Fraser, Holzer or Blacker, for that matter, provide that we don’t already have on the big club—at least that won’t be offset by the flaws and limitations that the promoted Marlies defensemen would bring with them?

Up front, are we still really expecting Colborne to emerge?  I know the injury story is a “reason” for his slow development here, but are we wishing more than being realistic?  Abbott, Ashton, D’Amigo, DeVane, Ross, Scott and McKegg are all nice young players who bring good traits at times.  Some show tenacity, a bit of grit, speed, a nice shot, whatever.  But do you honestly project them as more than replaceable third or fourth line players at the NHL level?  Myself, I like Greg Scott a lot, for example, but would he provide any more than, say, Joey Crabb did in recent times with the Leafs on some pretty mediocre squads?

I know that people say, but wait, the real high-end prospects are still in junior hockey—you know, Rielly, Finn, Percy, etc..  While there is little doubt Rielly is a supremely talented young player, we need a lot more where that came from.  To compete with the best teams in the NHL, we need a lot more quality depth than we have right now. You know, legitimate big-time players who will excel at key moments in huge games.  Who can do that for us right now?

Rielly, in my view, is not NHL-ready at this point, something I’ve said here for some time.  I was shocked, as I wrote at the time, that Burke even suggested a few weeks ago that Rielly would be given a shot to make the Leaf roster during a shortened training camp if we ever do have an NHL season.  That struck—and strikes—me as a very bad idea, for a host of reasons.  I’ve seen many uber-talented Leaf defenseman “rushed” through the years, from Jim Benning to Al Iafrate, and it rarely works. Enjoy the promise that Rielly shows, for sure, but let’s not rely on one young player to save our bacon.

But that debate aside, I just don’t see where that next “big thing” is coming from.  Rielly will be a good player, but will be really be the superstar that so many Leaf fans are gleefully projecting he will be?  We’ll see.

I’m not a big fan of hoping for no season and then some kind of miracle lottery win so the Leafs can draft a really good player in the summer of 2013 when the pickings are supposed to be pretty good.  That’s simply not the ideal way to “plan” when building a competitive hockey team.  It worked for Pittsburgh (Crosby), but they also bottom-fed for years and made some smart, shrewd moves to go along with “winning a lottery”.

Komarov should help when he arrives, a solid, old-school, agitator type.  But I ask again:  where does the influx of true excellence come from to ignite this Maple Leaf team?  The current “lockout” roster looks remarkably like the one that missed the playoffs on the heels of a massive nosedive last season.  Add van Riemsdyk, yes, but delete a hard-hitting young defenseman in Schenn.  We already shed another d-man that had some toughness (and maybe some “potential”) in Aulie.  We still are searching for goaltending depth (and certainty), team toughness, a true elite center and players with successful playoff experience.

That’s a lot of things “lacking”.  And the blue and white have not played a meaningful game in a long time- February of last year, maybe, when they still had aspirations of a playoff spot.  But as I also said here not long ago, in the wide-open Eastern Conference, I still believe and maintain that the Leafs could earn a playoff spot if their best players play like they can and the goaltending emerges as a strength and not a glaring weakness.  (I still want to believe in Reimer.)

I just remind myself, and fellow Leaf followers, that while the system looks “stocked” full of great prospects, when you actually assess things player by player, I’m not so sure we have what we think we have.

Hey, we just may have an NHL season after all, so this discussion will maybe get pretty real very soon.  By all means, let me know what you think….