Jake Gardiner and the offensive potential lurking just beneath the surface

For those who have asked about it, here is a link to the new podcast entitled "Leaf Matters" that I am co-hosting with Matteo Codispoti from We Want a Cup.  Click on the link below if you're interested in listening to the inaugural episode.  It will take some time to work out the kinks, but hopefully you will enjoy our work in the weeks to come.

Link to Leaf Matters podcast, episode #1

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All Leaf fans are aware of Jake Gardiner’s skill set—the effortless skating style, how he sees the ice so well, the fact that he can literally skate away from potential trouble, etc.— and are naturally excited about all of that.  We also know that he is still, like any young defenseman, improving and working on various elements of his defensive zone play. That will be one of the challenges facing Marlies head coach Dallas Eakins as he strives to help make Gardiner a solid all-around NHL rearguard.

I’ve shared my observation here at VLM before (not a sentiment shared by all Leaf followers) that Gardiner lacks the kind of physicality that would be a nice added dimension to his overall game.  But I acknowledge that I shouldn’t be fussy.  Scott Niedermayer was not the world’s most physical defenseman and he had a nice little Hall-of-Fame career, right?  (I just hope that, when the games get tough in the springtime every year, Gardiner has the game to overcome the attention—and the battering—he will get every night in the playoffs, because teams will try to wear him down and take away his effectiveness.)

The one thing that we maybe didn’t see last season from Gardiner was earth-shattering offensive numbers.  That said, we didn’t expect the young man to even be in the NHL at this time a year ago.  So his season-ending total of 30 points on 7 goals and 23 helpers was impressive for most NHL defensemen, and especially noteworthy for a first-year player right out of college.

But what I’m really talking about was not just the raw number— which happened to be 30 points.  I’m talking about his potential impact in terms of offensive production.  We started to see that impact last season in the opposition zone.  I’m not a stats person, and I’m sure many of the well-versed advanced stats specialists could break all this down much more effectively than I can.  (I just write about what I have seen or now see, past and present.)  But I do know that last season, there were many occasions where Gardiner set up a teammate, or blasted a shot from the point that clanged off the post or hit the goalie from fairly point-blank range.  He didn’t score his first NHL goal until well into the season, as I recall, but you just knew that as last season evolved, he was eventually going to see the puck start going in the net, and the points would come.

That’s exactly what happened.

When you have those kinds of offensive skills and can move the puck so smartly—and quickly—and have a strong shot like Gardiner, you will, over time, get your share of goals.  You'll also create a host of scoring opportunities for your teammates as well.

What can Gardiner ultimately be as an offensive defenseman, setting aside any mild defensive issues he might have?  I don’t know for sure, but if I had to guess, he is a young man capable of 20 goals in a season, and 40 assists - especially if he were playing on a team with a bit more skill and “finish” than last year’s version of the Maple Leafs had.

So far this season with the AHL Marlies, he is putting up some fairly nice offensive numbers (though he is a minus 3), as is his former college teammate Justin Schultz with the equally “loaded” Edmonton farm team in Oklahoma City.  Only 22 (like Gardiner), Schultz already has 15 points and is a plus 6 after 10 AHL games - his first games as a pro.  Gardiner has 5 points in 8 games.

We can always find flaws in anybody’s game (I mentioned in a recent post that Gardiner, in some ways, reminds me a bit of former Leaf legend Carl Brewer, who was a heck of a defensemen), but my guess is we’re looking at a huge upside in Gardiner.  He should only get better.  I don’t know if he can become even more poised on the ice because, well, pressure doesn’t seem to have any impact on him at all. He doesn't get rattled and can seemingly skate all night without getting winded.

And while, as I mentioned above, there will be some things in his defensive game that will require attention and commitment, he has so much quality in his game this should be a player Leaf fans can celebrate and sit back and enjoy for years to come, including his putting up some impressive offensive point totals as well from the back end.  He just might put up the kind of "stats" that we haven’t seen in these parts for a while. Unlike our old friend Tomas Kaberle, who earned a ton of assists most years in his Maple Leaf hey-day, this young man is not afraid to shoot, which should make him less predictable- and doubly dangerous.  A little bit of Bryan McCabe and Al Iafrate, maybe (who both had some really good offensive years in Toronto) but less mistake-prone.

How do you you see Gardiner's career unfolding with the Leafs?