Is it time for Brian Burke to get daring again?

Even if the NHL season started tomorrow, and all the CBA stuff was set aside for years to come, how optimistic would we Leaf supporters really be heading into a new season?  From the feedback I’ve received here at VLM in recent weeks, I sense fans are kind of divided.  Some are hopeful that the Leafs will be better, but most think we are still quite a ways off from being a serious playoff team.

To a certain extent, I can’t help but feel that we are, in fact, chasing our tail.  Oh, I’m well aware of the hopeful talk around our supposedly sterling Maple Leaf farm system, and all those good juniors we’ve drafted with hockey's favourite word -  “potential”.

Not to sound unduly negative, but I’ve seen this movie many times before, so I'm apt to be in the "I'm from Missouri" camp on this one.  I prefer proof rather than talk, and while potential is important, the Leafs need more guys who can play right now, not just a few years from now.  But who knows?  I didn't expect the Blues, for example, to be as good as they were last season, though with the goaltending they had, I guess it made sense.  Sometimes teams surprise us.

Here are some simple facts: whenever this lockout ends, the Leafs are a mediocre NHL team, full stop.  On paper, at their best, they are likely a borderline playoff squad in the Eastern Conference. They have some speed, some skill, agreed.  They have an explosive offensive player in Phil Kessel.  But they have a limited roster, especially so against good opposition.

Why do I say this?

• We have no proven front-line goaltender
• We do not have a proven, defensively outstanding stud defenseman
• We lack a bona fide first-line center
• We have a roster with a lot of third and fourth-line (read replaceable) guys
• We have very little in the way of players with legitimate playoff experience
• We have no one with a history of winning on their resume
• We lack overall team toughness
• Our special teams have been a disaster for years

So while we wait for the cavalry to come (Komarov- who could well earn a spot, based on what I'm seeing so far  - Kadri, Colborne, Holzer, D'Amigo and juniors like Rielly) where are we right now?

To me, Colborne, Kadri, Frattin and Gardiner aren’t "prospects".  They should be (or are) NHL’ers already.  I’ve watched them.  They’re nice players and everything, but if they played in, say, the Minnesota system, would we think they were going to be excellent NHL’ers?

For me, Gardiner is the exception. The sophomore rearguard looks to be in a fairly elite category given his tremendous instincts, calm demeanour and superb skill set, and that will help the big club for sure. Otherwise, we’re talking about everyday, garden-variety brand prospects down on the farm with the Marlies.  Guys with talent, sure, but individuals who are unlikely to be impact players at the NHL level—though I hold out hope that Frattin has the makings of a power forward.  I like a lot about his game.  But again, I look at him as a Leaf already.

So to me, we’re heading into a new season (if there is a new season) with a cast remarkably similar to what we’ve had in previous years:  that is, a roster filled with a bit of elite talent, hope, some maybes, a lot of “promise”—and tons of question marks. 

That is usually the recipe for disaster.

So what can be done?  Well, Burke can get daring.  He did it before when he acquired Kessel (a move we still talk about here - with fans split in retrospect as to whether that bold stroke will prove to be a wise move or not for the future of the Leafs) and he did it again in the deal for Phaneuf.  He tried it with the signing of Gustavsson, and also with the pursuit of Beauchemin and Komisarek.  That was big money invested to solidify a weak defense corps.  And he certainly was bold in taking on the oft-injured Lupul, though the real treat inside the Cracker Jack box on that one was young Gardiner.

But what about now?  Is he suddenly a stand pat GM after a fairly quiet summer (though acquiring van Riemsdyk suggests he hasn't lost his trading edge...)?

I don't think so.

We already know that Luongo has been on his radar screen for months.  While I’ve long opined here that I’m not a Luongo guy, I recognize that he will likely end up here.  And if all we care about is maybe getting to the playoffs, I don’t doubt he would be an upgrade in net.  (Let's just not throw Reimer away.  I still think he can play, if he gets his confidence and health back...)  And I do believe he could make the difference in the Leafs earning a playoff spot, though let’s be honest, is he really a better goalie than Miller, Lundqvist, Price, Ward or Brodeur - the top goaltending guns in the East? 

Maybe not, but he is in that league, and perhaps better than anything the other teams in the East will have next season.  So while Luongo does not excite me for the reasons I have outlined in earlier posts, he can help.  He’s a top-ten NHL goalie, and some nights, a lot better than that.

But beyond that, would Burke take a look at other players who would be the offensive equivalent of Luongo—players with warts but who have a legitimate profile as established stars who would perhaps benefit from a fresh start in a new market?  I’m thinking about names like Iginla, Marleau, Bolland or Sharp in Chicago, Getzlaf or Bobby Ryan in Anaheim.  Each of those guys have been impact players for years and yes, would come with a cost.  But would they ignite the Leafs and provide some juice that is lacking many nights?  And just maybe they would provide some support (and relief) for players like Lupul, Grabovski and yes, Kessel.

One of the excellent posters here (Jim) made a really good point a few days ago.  That is, after the last lockout, we had the "new" NHL to look forward to.  More power plays, more wide-open hockey, less clutching and grabbing and neutral zone clogging. (As we remember, the Leafs were one of the teams who were woefully unprepared for the newer, faster, "room for little guys with skill" NHL, but I have to believe we’ll be much better prepared this time around…)

Now, when this dispute finally ends, what will we have, as hockey fans—and as Maple Leaf fans?  We will seemingly have the same old, same old.  And we'll have the "same-old" in Toronto, as well.

Yes, Carlyle is behind the bench now, a new, harsher voice (though we thought Wilson was a harsher voice four years ago) that may trigger better results and a more thorough defensive approach most nights.  But while good coaches can drive better outcomes with the same old personnel sometimes, I’d still like to see some further roster overhaul.  Though I’m not a huge fans of the idea, Luongo would be a start, I acknowledge, but I still believe we need more—a lot more.  And I don’t buy the notion that our system has better prospects than many other teams.  We simply see them more often.  Quite a number of teams have their 22 year-olds as mainstays in the lineup already. (The Marlies' 2, wins, 2 losses and 1 overtime loss record so far this season doesn't move me much one way or the other.  Some guys have looked good in the early going, others not so much.  But it's a long season, and I'd hardly make an assessment based on 5 games for any young player at that level...)

I don’t know the answer to all that ails (or might this coming season) the Leafs, and I recognize that many Leaf supporters want to see Burke continue with his current patient "re-build with youth" approach.  And there's some wisdom in that approach, I sense.   Still, I’d love to see some new faces in the Leaf line-up when we open the season.  Some of our young guys (certainly Kadri and Komarov—Frattin and Gardiner are already Leafs), for sure, but also some familiar names who built a reputation elsewhere and who could make a valuable contribution to a young Leaf squad.