Sometimes fewer words is indeed better. It surely has to be better when there isn’t a whole heck of a lot to say. So I’ll try to be brief today.
Some reactions to my recent post on “why the Leafs still matter” (I'd enjoy your hearing your perspective on that recent column, if you haven't checked it out already...) made me pause and think. Are many Leaf fans as pessimistic as it sounds? Has the team (as it is presently constituted—not the historical franchise, if you see the distinction I’m trying to draw…) actually become less relevant than it used to be? Are people off the bandwagon until there is legitimate proof, over an extended period of time, that the team has turned a corner?
I’m wondering.
Heck, I heard a debate recently on one of the all-sports radio stations around whether the Leafs should still be pursuing Luongo. (It wasn’t really much of a debate. You could tell they were just filling time, since there isn’t actually much hockey to chat about, except the excruciatingly slow and painful CBA negotiations.)
The conversation covered the same well-trod ground we’ve tracked here for months, dating back to the Canuck’s playoff demise and the cues we all noticed that signalled that the veteran goalkeeper would not be staying with the Canucks. One guy thought Luongo was a good idea for the Leafs because he would immediately help their chances of making the playoffs—and Luongo is, he said, better than what the Leafs have right now in the system. The other fellow said Luongo was past his prime. (You’ve heard my assessment on this subject many times: Luongo is still a very good goalie, sure, and he could indeed help the Leafs get to the playoffs. But having seen him melt down several years in a row on an outstanding Vancouver team (one that should have won a Cup by now) well, for me, he just isn’t the guy for the Leafs. Even if he was absolutely brilliant in the regular-season, I would hold my breath until he proved he could do the same for the blue and white come playoff time. (Then, if he did that, I would acknowledge, gladly, the error of my ways.)
In any event, I would like to throw a few questions onto (into?) the discussion hopper for those many thoughtful readers who drop by here from time to time. A simple yes or no by way of response is fine, but if you’d like to add any comments, as always, feel free.
Here are the “10 questions”:
- Are you happy Brian Burke is still the Leaf GM—yes or no?
- Are you satisfied with the job he has done in almost four years on the job? (I know there may be no simple "yes" or "no" response, but give it your best shot...)
- Is Burke the right guy to take the Leafs to the next step in their re-build?
- Do you want Roberto Luongo here? (Do you want Luongo here if there is a real cost, or only if the deal is mostly the Canucks taking on our un-wanted salary?)
- The fact that it hasn’t happened so far this summer clearly demonstrates that, CBA realities aside, the Leafs cannot acquire a bona fide number-one center (Marleau, Getzlaf, etc.) without giving up something big in return—like Jake Gardiner. Do you still want them to aggressively pursue a high-end centre?
- If they can’t bring in a top center, what is your next “acquisition” priority—goaltending, defensemen or forwards? (Only cite one...)
- Are you happy that Randy Carlyle is the coach heading into this next phase of the re-build?
- Can the Maple Leafs make the playoffs in the mediocre Eastern Conference with their roster as it is right now, given the apparent improvements made by their competition this summer?
- Who do you anticipate will be the Leafs’ top-six defensemen when they break camp for the regular season in October?
- Is there one well-regarded Maple Leaf that you may like a lot, but would be prepared to give up in a trade to acquire what you think the club needs?
It’s already August, so we know that guys are going to start pulling into town and showing up soon for those informal workouts they hold at the Leafs' Lakeshore practice facility every summer. Players will be itching to hit the ice, with training camp now suddenly not that far off.
If you have a second, take a look at the questions above and let me know what you’re thinking….
Posts
MIchael,
ReplyDeleteIf I may, I would hope that you and your family had a fine long weekend. On to your questions. Yes, the Leafs still matter. For me it is really best summed up by saying that I still care about them a lot. It is a lot less than I used to, when I was buying merchandise and yelling at the screen when the play went south. Now, I am more than willing to change the channel if I am sure that there is no comeback tonight. With how crappy they have been for a number of years now, I haven't been surprised in the morning too often.
As to your other queries:
1. At this point if they fired him and brought in someone else, I guess to be honest I wouldn't mind. I also don't care if he gets another year. If you were to make me choose, I say no.
2. No, absolutely not. More results, less pomposity. His results are at best no better than the guy he replaced.
3. It is looking like the deep end of the pool is a little too deep for our pal Burkie. As above, he gets the year and if they are still swimming amongst the bottom feeders in the East. I say, Next!
4. Unless it is a complete salary dump by Vancouver. No.
5. Honestly, it depends for me on who the centre is. I don't want Marleau for more than a 2nd rounder and a prospect. I would give up Gardiner for Getzlaf. They just drafted another player very similar to him. I would trade the entire organization for Crosby. Had to throw that one in, sorry.
6. I was praying that they would put in an offer sheet for Shea Weber. I forgot that Burke doesn't think the League should be run that way. Stud D'man is still my vote. Long term more reliable than a goalie, IMO.
7. Seems to me Carlyle is going to have a tough time getting some of these guys to play hard in their own end. Lots of names here, Kessel, Liles, Gardiner, Franson are all players I wouldn't identify as very hard to play against in their end of the rink. If they can all learn to be a responsible defensive player that will be looked upon fondly by whomever replaces Carlyle. He looks to me to be the wrong guy for the roster. I would have let Eakins have a go at it.
8. No. Unless they are really lucky injury wise, Reimer plays unbelievably and defending becomes their new best friend.
9. Sadly. Phaneuf, Gunnarson, Komisarek, Liles, Gardiner and Franson. Or, one guy who makes terrible decisions, a guy I like, a guy who should be a Marlie, a skilled guy who played awful after he came back from injury, perhaps a stud d'man just not yet, and a good point man on the powerplay and little else. Jeez that hurt to write out.
10. There are 3 if you exclude the guys Burke would not trade.(Kessel, Phaneuf, Lupul) Optics would be terrible if any of those three were traded so soon. Three guys that I would be hard pressed to trade are Gunnarson, he does so many things quietly. IMO he always makes a good decision with the puck as well as his positioning. Its tough to put your finger on what he does. When I played, I saw guys like him always in position while expending minimal effort. Smart and smooth, I would say is a tough thing to replace. Gardiner and Rielly are the other two, if one of them had to go, ok. Just don't ask me to choose which one has the best upside over the next 15 years, cause I have no idea, They both look like they could be "A natural born world shaker"
1. Yes
ReplyDelete2. No
3. Yes
4. Yes
5. No
6. Goaltending
7. Yes
8. No
9. Phaneuf, Gardiner, Liles, Komisarek, Gunnarson, Franson
10. Yes, Kulemin
1- Yes; I think that he's done some serious good despite a number of handicaps not of his own making. I also think he's done as well as almost any other GM could have under the circumstances.
ReplyDelete2- No; any Leafs fan who is satisfied at this point hasn't been paying attention.
3- I don't know. No one does. It's impossible to tell given the chaos in the league the last few years. I think he needs at least one more year to be able to give this a definitive answer, though, and I think the Leafs as a team have a history of knee-jerk moves or over-reactions at times.
4- I believe we could make a deal that would be fair for both sides and that would net improve the Leafs (no pun intended). I don't think Vancouver will go for that - they're looking for a silly amount back. I'd take Luongo for a fair deal, but I'd rather see what Reimer really has rather than OVER pay.
5- I think they can get one, under the right conditions; but free agency this year was a bust, last year they threw the house at Richards and he chose NYR for his own reasons (yes, cap-circumvention contract being one of them), and so on. In all things, I hope they pursue a centre with an eye to keeping the team net competitive. You CAN build a team strong down the wings and thrive, but obviously it takes more (though different) talent. If the centre isn't there to be had, I'd rather see them get useful, talented players in every other position that they can get.
6- Stud, minute-eating defenceman. But they don't grow on trees anymore than top centres do.
7- Happier than I was with Ron Wilson at the end; he'd started to look lost. But not happy with Carlyle specifically. I think his hire is one of the 'over-reactions' I mentioned previous.
8- 'Yes, if...' I won't bore with the litany of 'ifs'. The biggest one is goaltending. If Reimer shows up like we hope he can, this team will be in a dog-fight for anything between 5 and 10 in the East. Without it, we're sunk. That's why everyone is so nervous, I think: lots riding on a young, unproven goalie, with a weird pedigree, coming of an injury and a down season. Would YOU gamble on that?
9- Clearly Phaneuf, Gunnar, Liles, Gardiner. Franson will see some time, more or less depending on how Liles bounces back. And one of the kids, probably Holzer. Komi will have to have a spectacular turn around to avoid being either stashed in the AHL (CBA permitting) or otherwise being traded or exiled to the land of misfit toys. That's a weird top six, but it does accord to what we've been hearing about several GMs thinking the game is trending towards more mobile and puck-movement-oriented back ends.
10- Lupul, probably. I like him, I think he takes some unnecessary heat from stat-heads who hate his defence, and he obviously clicked with Kessel. But it feels an awful lot like some of the wingers I fell for over the years who, turns out, were mostly good at playing with Gilmour or Sundin, rather than hockey more generally. We may be at a 'sell high' point on Lupul.
i'll bite...
ReplyDelete1) yes. i may not be happy that he IS the GM, but i'm happy he STILL is the GM (to me, consistency is key).
2) not yet... i would give him 24 months (more than most people i imagine).
3) if this question was asked four years ago, i would have said yes... the fact we're still using the word re-build to describe the leafs in 2012 is frustrating.
4) no. luongo is not the answer (i'd rather see how reimer and scrivens pair-up this season).
5) pursue yes... wait for a deal though.
6) forwards who can score (to go along with kessel, lupul, mac... kulemin)
7) no. burke fired one personal-friend, and brought in another.
8) no, i think summer acquisitions by the sabres make them more likely to get back into the playoffs (ughhh) than the leafs.
9) phaneuf, franson, gardiner, liles, gunnar, komisarek
10) no. i would give anyone up for the right trade.
Not happy with Burke.
ReplyDeleteNot satisfied with Burke.
There are a number of capable GMs
I want Luongo if trade value is reasonable.
The leafs need a centre and I'm disappointed with Burke and all his player friendly GM restrictions (no trading around xmas, avoiding demoting players to AHL etc) that he cannot secure top end free agent talent. We lost Richards to Rangers a team that is notorious for dumping players in AHL.
Goaltending
I'm not happy with Carlyle. Burke is trying to relive the past with Anaheim. I'm not clear if Burke is too stubborn to see where the game has changed.
It is unlikey the leafs make the playoffs.
Phaneuf, Gunnar, Liles, Gardiner, Holzer, Komisarek
I would trade Lupul.
The best news so far about the Leafs in the uocoming season is that Randy Carlyle, a professional coach, will be at the reins from Day 1.
ReplyDeleteThe next-best news would be that James Reimer is completely healthy....
and, if I had three wishes, the third would be that training with Gary Roberts has had the same effect on Nazem Kadri that it has with others such as Steven Stamkos.
Blue sky smilin' at me.
Thank you, Jim. I hope you and yours had a wonderful long weekend as well.
ReplyDeleteYou've covered the questions thoroughly. I hear you on Luongo. It's interesting that you raise Getzlaf and Gardiner. I think that's what it would take for Murray to move a player with that much value.
I, too, wonder what Burke would do if he had a Mulligan on the coaching change. Would it be Eakins? Or would Carlyle still be his guy?
Number 9 answers made me smile!
I'm absolutely with you on Gunnarsson. Would hate to give him up.
Really good points on number 10....
Great stuff, thanks again Jim.
Thanks Spaz- I've always liked Kulemin as well, but would also be prepared to part with him if we had to. I just wonder if we'd end up missing him more than be happy with what we got in return. If he plays to his "potential", he should be a serious contributor here.
ReplyDeleteAnd a yes for Luongo....and support for Carlyle....
That's an excellent breakdown, Adam.
ReplyDeleteYou're fair to Burke, but also realistic.
You've well describe what I sense is precisely what is happening between Burke and Gillis. Talk, but no way to find a middle ground.
Centers, as you cite, like defensemen, are so hard to find. If you have one, keep them.
On Carlyle, I will refer to my "mulligan" above when chatting with Jim.
Reimer is indeed the wildcard, "x" factor, whatever we want to call it at this point...
I hear you on Lupul. Hard to believe he will have a second consecutive career year....
Thanks Adam.
Alex C....I get what you're saying about Burke, in answer to the first question. That's fair.
ReplyDeleteI recall your views on Luongo, which are similar to mine.
Interesting that you cite forwards (over a defenseman or goalie) who can score, but I understand. We need secondary scoring on a consistent basis, for sure.
You're close to the Sabres situation and I, too, sense they will be better than this coming season. Some of the things they did last summer may prove helpful this coming year....
No un-touchables. Interesting.
Thanks Alex.
leaferboy...you make interesting observations regarding Burke. He is a "player-friendly" GM, but doesn't seem to get the traction he should in obtaining players as a result. (Of course, that may have more to do with Toronto as a market, or the fact that the team is still not a Cup contender.)
ReplyDeleteI guess GM's tend to go with what they "know". Burke, as you mention, had success with Carlyle in Anaheim.
And another mention that Lupul could be moved...
Thanks leaferboy, good stuff.....
Thanks for chiming in on this one, BC LeafFan....I think a lot of us are hoping Reimer is healthy and confident come October!
ReplyDeleteIt has to be a good thing that Kadri is working with Roberts. He's at a stage in his young career where he may be poised to take that "next step"....
1. Yes
ReplyDelete2. Yes and no--some of his moves have been brilliant, but the bottom line is lack of on ice success
3. Yes, I think he has something to prove and that at least parts of this situation were not really his doing. Or I guess I mean I'm not sure how any other GM might have done better. Besides, some see him as pompous, but I genuinely think he's funny and I like his phony bluster. Better than the polished talking heads running half of the other teams around the league..from an entertainment point of view.
4. Yes, depends on the cost, but for fair value, yes yes and yes--he's a world class goalie and proven what he can do. At the very least, the playoffs look a lot more feasible with him in the lineup than not. I think worrying about Stanley Cup finals performance is a little premature, and by the time we're at that point, we may have a new talent to step in if necessary.
5. No, not for Jake Gardiner. Why would we trade him of all players? He showed too many flashes of brilliance... he's the real deal, in my opinion. The star center problem is not an easy one to resolve, and I can't see getting fair value for Jake.
6. Goalie. We fans have short memories. Goaltending has sunk us short of one half season in the last er, my short memory fails me! While I like Reimer, I just think it's a bit Charlie Brown to continue taking chances at such a crucial position.
7. I don't see how this group of players will live up to his style. Didn't he once tell Lupul he couldn't play in the NHL? So no.
8. No. But in my opinion we're just a Luongo (or equivalent) away.
9. Phaneuf, Gardiner, Liles, Komisarek, Gunnarson, TBD...
10. I would be willing to trade Kadri. Sorry all!
PF...I'll put you in the yes to Luongo camp....(If the short-term objective is simply the playoffs, then yes, I absolutely agree, he could help with that...)
ReplyDeleteI hear you on Gardiner. I hated giving up Schenn and Aulie. I never like trading young defensemen with serious potential. While he does not have the nasty edge that those two ex-Leafs have, he has rare skill.
I wonder if TBD will be Holzer, as others have cited above...
Good stuff, thanks PF.....
1) yes - One has to take into consideration of what was here before and how it was essentially a debacle of a franchise with no leadership and mostly chaos. Whether you like his remarks, signings or trades, one thing you cannot question is his leadership ability. TML needed a face and he has provided it.
ReplyDelete2) Yes - The results has been slow but noticeable. Fans drinks in his bravado statements and that created too high of an expectations. Not doubt BB was at fault for the backlash. But the future success can realistically be expected with what has been accomplished. There is now hope.
3) Yes - Given what he has done so far, I believe he has earned the opportunity to continue for 2 years max if he cannot have a playoff team
4) Realistically with Luongo, it is definitely an upgrade and we can expect to succeed in making the playoff. His salary is not as bad as it appears in my opinion. To judge him based on his lack of success in the playoff is something of a moot point when TML has not even made the show in 8 years. Additionally, when was the last time a leaf goalie was successful in the playoff, Bower? So to criticized only him based on TML's history is unfair and short sighted as we can all agreed at least he CAN get us into the show and again no other leafs goalie has been truly successful since 1967.
4) Yes/No - it has to make sense and at this point, giving up on Gardiner is a little premature. TML is not at the point where a number one center as noted in Marleau and Getzlaf will make the risk of losing an asset of this caliber worthwhile as it does not appreciatively make the Leafs appreciatively better, a legitimate contender for the cup. If playoff is the only goal, Luongo can do that with his acquisition alone and the price will not be Gardner.
6) Luongo - will make the D much better
7) Not sure since the style of play is not necessarily tailored to the team that Burke has compiled thus far. Contrary to what has been (or less) reported, I don't believe the Lupul vs Carlyle situation has truly been resolved. IMO, the first sign of adversity in the next season, there will be friction.
8)Maybe but the odds are not good. Goaltending will be the key either via bounce back season by Reimer or the Luongo acquisition, if it happens.
9)Not unless several things come into play, Komoserek to Vancouver as a package to get Luongo and Franson's RFA status. I expect Franson to be trade for a package. The pins will fall if the Luongo trade happens.
10) Gardiner Kadri and Colborne. Gardiner speaks for himself in his play last year. Kadri, in his attitude and demeanor. This kid has a lot to prove and so far has shown that he has the right attitude given how much the media and fans have shit on him already. Colborne - a little to too early to tell but the skill set and make up seems too good to simply give up this early
1. I would not describe my feeling as happy. More like very hopeful things turn a corner this year. I have to admit I like Brian Burke. I believe he has integrity and I respect the way he conducts himself and his business. That aside, four years ago I thought we would be a lot closer to contending by now. I think after four seasons of being unable to add elite players through free agency, I am wondering where the talent we need is going to come from. Is it fair to go into this season hanging hopes on JVR or Joe Colbourne @ no.1 centre? Reimer to play 50-60 games and get us into the playoffs? Play Gardiner 23 minutes a night all year? What's Burke's plan here?
ReplyDelete2. No. That doesn't mean he hasn't done everything in his power to try to acquire great players and make this team better.
3. I can honestly say I don't know. You would think a GM with 15 plus years on the job and a cup under his belt could get it done. Not to mention some of the most experienced hockey execs in the NHL working for him. I don't have a clear cut answer for that. I believe Wilson wasn't his coach, now he has his coach. Now that he isn't acquiring players to suit Wilson's vision, he and Carlyle have the opportunity to follow the Anahiem model again. Question is, does he have the clout to bring in the players we really need?
4. Acquiring a goaltender like Luongo would certainly improve our short term chances of making the playoffs and possibly into the later rounds. That said, if Bobby Lu comes to town, that pretty much shuts down Riemer devoloping into a bonafide number 1. I would have prefered a less expensive short term veteran option (...Giguere anyone?) to help Riemer with the Psychological aspects of being a No 1.
5. Where else will that No 1 centre come from? JVR? Colbourne? Kadri? Possibly, but can Burke survive the rebuild long enough to find out?
6.I would say my concerns aren't as much positional as they are about the mental state of this young team. I believe time has shown in Toronto that you need to have solid veteran leadership to carry you through the tougher parts of the season. If we don't want to repeat last years late season implosion, we need someone the players believe in leading this team. (Remember that Sundin guy...he would've looked pretty good in that No 1 spot between Kessel and Lupul)
7. I like what I have heard of Carlyle's approach so far. He seems very committed to instilling confidence in his players, instead of routinely throwing them under the bus as Wilson appeared to do. I am interested to see what effect this will have on the team.
8. It will not be any easier this year that's for sure. It is possible though.
9. Phanuef, Liles, Gunnarsson, Gardiner are locks for sure. I wish Komisarek was able to do the job we need him for (Hit, Intimidate, Clear the front of the net, Don't turn it over). That's what we need more of on our blueline. Hopefully Holzer can help in that regard. Otherwise, unless we can resign Franson, I think we may be seeing a youth movement on the back end this year.
10. I can't say one name for sure, but I will say I think we have enough depth on defence to look at including a defensive prospect in a package. Perhaps there are some roster players we could move to gain more in the size department, we could certainly use help there. Other than that I think sometimes you just have to roll the dice and let the kids play.
Great post, Z. I won't go through all your points, but solid stuff throughout.
ReplyDeleteLet me make one point on Luongo and your Johnny Bower reference. While I see your point and respect your position, the thing I would maybe add into the mix for discussion is that Luongo played behind a team in Vancouver that, to me, should have won a Cup by now. They are that talented. I'm not sure any Leaf team, even in the Quinn years when they were always very good and very competitive, were quite talented enough that they SHOULD have won a Cup. Curtis Joseph was very good, but did we expect him to win a Cup?
Luongo is a great goalie, as I've said here before. If, as you reference, making the playoffs is the objective, he absolutely could help get us there...
Thanks Z.
There are really strong points throughout your post, Anon, but one thing that struck me was your comment about the mental state of this young team.
ReplyDeleteI'm one of those (and I know I'm not alone) who feels there is indeed a need for experience and leadership. You've stated it well here. Yes, it can be developed over time internally, but we seem to lack that "presence". There is no old-time Bert Olmstead or George Armstrong, or in more modern terms, Gary Roberts, or yes, as you mention, Sundin.
Great post, thanks Anon...
Thanks Michael,
ReplyDeleteAnd I do get your point and in agreement with you in relation to the Vancouver scenario. However, I don't believe the TML will be a cup winner with another goalie in the foreseeable future anyhow. This team is missing too many critical components to have a legitimate shot but what Luongo does provide is continual competitiveness which I don't believe any other goalie that the leafs has access or potential access to, legitimately possesses. Being competitive is critical since that in itself allows the team to be much more attractive to free agents. Given that scenario and the relatively low cost (if Gillis comes to his senses) is a risk that I feel the acquisition with worth it. Additionally, we don't know what the next CBA brings but given the duration of Luongo's contract we might be seeing 2 different CBAs which might have double the possibility of having clauses allowing getting rid of these retirement contracts without effecting the cap if it does not work out. I know it is conjectural on my part, but the risk to me at this point is minimal for many gains that the luongo's acquisition will provide, again provided that the cost is within reason. I think Bozak,2nd, Franson and/or Komo for Luongo and a conditional 2nd. would be workable.
To clarify question 9..which I misread. Answer: Phaneuf, Liles, Gardner...the rest might not be in blue and white at all.
Thanks Z. Your points about a potential acquisition of Luongo are all fair, in my view. He would add a veteran presence, for sure, and would make them a likely playoff team.
ReplyDeleteAnd, as you state, it could help in related ways, including attracting other players to this market.
Yes, I did catch your earlier response to question number 10- but I understood exactly what you were referring to. Thanks for the update.
1. Yes, grudgingly.
ReplyDelete2. No.
3. I'll believe it when I see it.
4. Yes.
5. Yes - I'd give up probably anyone but Kessel or Gardiner.
6. Goaltending.
7. No. His reputation doesn't match the team's personnel, which is highly impractical. (This year I've seen my AFL team, the Adelaide Crows, hire a coach who tailored a game plan to suit the playing list with spectacular results.)
8. It's possible, but I have my doubts.
9. Phaneuf, Gunnarson, Liles, Komisarek, Gardiner & Franson. Maybe Holzer. Not Rielly.
10. Bozak or Reimer. If either one goes in a package that nets a high-level player at his position, I'm all for it.
Thanks for posting on this topic, Peregrine.
ReplyDeleteThe Luongo "question" certainly is fodder for healthy discussion... (You're not alone in not wanting to part with Gardiner...)
Your response to number 7 re Carlyle is food for thought. I guess it raises the age-old question, should a roster change to suit the demands of the coach, or should a coach adapt to the realities of his roster?
I like Bozak and Reimer as well, but I understand why you would be willing to part with Bozak under the right circumstances...
Are you happy Brian Burke is still the Leaf GM—yes or no?
ReplyDeleteI'm in the middle. I sure like some of the trades. I don't like some of the free agents and draft choices.
Are you satisfied with the job he has done in almost four years on the job?
Yes, but his big mistake was mismanaging expectations. If he had just something different all would make sense and we would be on track and according to plan. Here is what Burke should have said:
"We are going to rebuild properly through the draft and trading and we aren't going to rush these kids anymore. We want to see draft choices get proper time in the AHL. While our prospects are developing we will bring in some veterans and free agents until our pospects are ready and we get that right mixture of youth and veteran players."
Is Burke the right guy to take the Leafs to the next step in their re-build?
Yes, he is doing a very good slow rebuild. He just didn't sell us on that.
Do you want Roberto Luongo here? (Do you want Luongo here if there is a real cost, or only if the deal is mostly the Canucks taking on our un-wanted salary?)
Not really he has a big contract and one of the kids could chase him out of town, just like in Vancouver.
The fact that it hasn’t happened so far this summer clearly demonstrates that, CBA realities aside, the Leafs cannot acquire a bona fide number-one center (Marleau, Getzlaf, etc.) without giving up something big in return—like Jake Gardiner. Do you still want them to aggressively pursue a high-end centre?
They passed one up in the draft his name is Mikhail Grigorenko. He might be ready in less than two years. If he gets more than 55 points and wins the Calder, I will probably go insane. I can understand if they thought Morgan Rielly was special but make the trade with Tampa and also grab Grigorenko at 10th.
There are also rumors that San Jose might be ready to deal Joe Thornton.
If they can’t bring in a top center, what is your next “acquisition” priority—goaltending, defensemen or forwards? (Only cite one...)
A veteran goaltender with a one year contract,until we know where Riemer is, but there is a catch.
Right now Scrivens is a RFA. If they resign him with no signing bonus, but put that money into the first year of front loaded contract the Leafs could pass Scrivens through waivers for most of a another year. Something like 2.5 million the first year and league minimum for the next two years after that. It's the same total money as 3-year 3.6 million contract...if you are another team do you try and pick Scrivens off waivers this year at $2.5 million?
Are you happy that Randy Carlyle is the coach heading into this next phase of the re-build?
I am fine with it.
Can the Maple Leafs make the playoffs in the mediocre Eastern Conference with their roster as it is right now, given the apparent improvements made by their competition this summer?
It will take some luck and problems on other teams.
Who do you anticipate will be the Leafs’ top-six defensemen when they break camp for the regular season in October?
Komisarek will go to Phillidelpia to fill on depleted core that now includes an injured Mezsaros, who will be out for most of the year. That is my prediction. Franson resigned soon.
Is there one well-regarded Maple Leaf that you may like a lot, but would be prepared to give up in a trade to acquire what you think the club needs?
MacArthur, Bozak, Liles, Kulemin, Franson...it all depends on what we get back.
1- Yes becuase I think they are a lot closer than most people realize.
ReplyDelete2 I like what Burke has done - Phaneuef/Ashton, Colborne/Liles/Biggs, Gardiner/Lupul JVR have to think these guys will get better and it will all come together.
3 - I think he is the right guy but I am worried he may panic to save his job and trade off assets and we all know the end result would be another rebuild in a few years. If he sticks with the plan, keep aquiring assests and developing them you end up with a lot of good players all approaching their prime and then they have a legitimate shot.
4- I don't want Luongo - if he is not good enough for the Canuks and Schneider is obviously better why do the Leafs want him? A goalie that isn't good enough when it counts for Vancouver isn't winning any Cups in Toronto.
5- I like Gardiner and think he could be another Niedermayer so you can't trade him. Leafs will have a lot of cap room next year so they should bide their time keep their star prospects and sign Getzlaf or Perry next year as a free agent.
6-I keep hearing about all the defense prospects and there doesn't seem to be a goalie so go for a top 6 forward.
7- Not sure but very hopeful, if he can get them playing good defense and still have the offense it could be what they need.
8- I think they can if they are healthy - Liles had the concussion, JVR could be big, Reimer back in form, Kulemin scoring again and maybe some kids like Kadri coming up.
9- Phaneuf, Gardiner, Liles, Gunnarrson, Franson, Komisarek
10- Lupul and Gunnarson could be dealt.
I response to: "should a roster change to suit the demands of the coach, or should a coach adapt to the realities of his roster?" I think that two things have complicated this: the current salary structure, and the New England Patriots.
ReplyDeleteOn the salary structure, coaches and GMs need to work very closely together these days given that every signing has a knock-on effect for signings/salary throughout the roster. Quite simply, it's not possible to be stacked everywhere because you can't pay top dollar at every position. And the more that one elite player makes, the less 'valuable' (in terms of asking price) the rest of the roster becomes. I think every coach in the league - including Carlyle - wants Phil Kessel on their roster. But these days, having Kessel and his salary on your roster means he has to be contributing as much as humanly possible. His salary means that when he's not on the ice, the general quality of players NOT him is going to drop. Carlyle may not like Kessel's defence, and want to shelter him. But who does he shelter him with? Defensive specialists still cost money, and more than journeyman plugs; 2-way players are expensive too. These sorts of decisions intimately connect expenditures on contracts over sweeps of time, and the individual decisions on ice time, team-make up, line pairings, etc.
Then there's the Patriots, and the perception of a 'Patriots way' in sports. Essentially, New England has built up a mythos over several years that they can swap in or out any player, and as long as the player follows the team rules and culture, the team will be successful. Obviously, the reality is more complicated. It helps when you accidentally stumble upon a generational talent at QB with a late round pick. Also, football as a strictly positional game is more suited to swapping players in and out at their position without impacting all aspects of the team. Finally is the misconception by fan that hockey players can be 'disposed of' the way that NFL players are - look at the fans clamoring for this player or that to be stashed in the AHL - without any concept of whether or not the new CBA will allow that. But the perception is out there all the same, and that puts both pressure on coaches and players to enact a "team way" (or risk being called weak, lame duck, etc.). I wonder if it also plays into the minds of the coaches themselves; who doesn't look up to the legends of their general profession and in some senses try to emulate them?
But in the NHL at present, it seems much more realistic to say that a coach needs core concentrations, but flexibility too. I think it was after LA's Cup win that some of the players talked about how they had strict defensive assignments, but offensive license to be creative (even if it resulted in turnovers). That's not the only way to do it, but it's an example.
Your comments regarding Burke are very fair, DP. I think it's true, if he had offered up a more measured public response in his early days with the club, expectations may be very different. (I still think many fans would have wanted more progress by this point, however....)
ReplyDeleteI hear you on Luongo. I am, perhaps too hopefully, pinning my expectations on Reimer... (Interesting thoughts on Scrivens, by the way....)
I know that you have mentioned Grigorenko before. Only time will tell if that was a "miss" or not...
Yes, I also noticed that Meszaros is now out with a serious injury. The Flyers will need to replace some key minutes there.
Always appreciate your thoughts, thanks DP.
Thanks Alton. On number 5, it's interesting that you mention next summer. It sounds like some very good players will be available. That could be part of the overall "patience" strategy. Not that they won't make every effort to make the playoffs this season, but they will also likely have an eye on cap flexibility coming out of this new CBA.
ReplyDeleteI agree that playoff hopes this season will, to a certain extent, depend on their health- including Reimer's, for sure. A lot may also have to do with what other teams do. Some clubs may slip back, like Florida and Ottawa...
Good stuff. Thanks for posting on this subject, Alton.
Michael, thought I'd take a few minutes to answer your poll!
ReplyDelete1. Are you happy Brian Burke is still the Leaf GM—yes or no?
NO
2. Are you satisfied with the job he has done in almost four years on
the job? (I know there may be no simple "yes" or "no" response, but
give it your best shot...)
NO
3. Is Burke the right guy to take the Leafs to the next step in their re-build?
NO
4. Do you want Roberto Luongo here? (Do you want Luongo here if there
is a real cost, or only if the deal is mostly the Canucks taking on
our un-wanted salary?)
YES (but not if there is a real cost, only if Van takes on unwanted salary)
5. The fact that it hasn’t happened so far this summer clearly
demonstrates that, CBA realities aside, the Leafs cannot acquire a
bona fide number-one center (Marleau, Getzlaf, etc.) without giving up
something big in return—like Jake Gardiner. Do you still want them to
aggressively pursue a high-end centre?
NO (if it means giving up Gardiner), otherwise YES
6. If they can’t bring in a top center, what is your next
“acquisition” priority—goaltending, defensemen or forwards? (Only cite
one...)
Goaltending (as per Burke himself, good teams start from the net out,
and while I like Reimer, I am concerned that the team will falter -
again - if he isn't solid)
7. Are you happy that Randy Carlyle is the coach heading into this
next phase of the re-build?
I have no idea.
8. Can the Maple Leafs make the playoffs in the mediocre Eastern
Conference with their roster as it is right now, given the apparent
improvements made by their competition this summer?
YES (though just barely)
9. Who do you anticipate will be the Leafs’ top-six defensemen when
they break camp for the regular season in October?
Phaneuf-Gunnarsson-Gardiner-Liles-Komisarek-Franson
10. Is there one well-regarded Maple Leaf that you may like a lot, but
would be prepared to give up in a trade to acquire what you think the
club needs?
Anyone except Gardiner.
My two cents!
John
For some reason John's post above didn't come through directly on the site, so I have just now included it above:
ReplyDeleteThanks John- You're in the "no Luongo" category!
I agree on Gardiner, but as I keep saying, if the Leafs want to acquire any big names from other clubs, if I was the GM of those teams, Gardiner is the guy I would insist on.
Thanks John!
So many outstanding points in your post, Adam.
ReplyDeleteThe Patriots are, as you mention, the poster team for how to do things "right", though they have been blessed with, as you also cite, a QB that makes other inadequacies less noticeable.
You well make the point that every player-signing nowadays impacts everything else. Shea Weber, for example, eating up all that cap space (and real dollars) in Nashville will likely make it even harder for the Predators to compete, for the reasons you mention. Good teams need value at all positions, and if there is less money to invest on a third-line, two way center, the final product will invariably suffer.
Great stuff. Really well broken down. Thanks Adam.
Well here goes:
ReplyDelete1. No,
2. He simply hasnt done enough. Ottawa crashed and heavily rebuilt their team well we were supposedly rebuilding ours.
3. I do not believe so, but if we miss the playoffs again he is likely fired anyway.
4. We need a goalie upgrade period.
5. CBA issue aside the Leafs simply do not have the assets to land a big-name player in a trade. If they did, it would be a case of 1-step forward, 2 steps back.
6. Goalie, ow heavens a goalie. Every other team in the division has a proven number 1.
7. Carlye will play a defensive style which should keep games close, so it will be good for young players.
8. Little chance we make the playoffs. Rangers, Flyers, Penguins, Boston and a Southeast team (Canes/Panthers/Capitals) are locks at this point. One of the Sens/Sabres (or both) are likely to make it in, so thats realistically a fight over the final spot. I just cannot see us doing it.
9. Phaneuf, Gunnarson, Liles, Komisarek, Gardiner & Franson
10. Again for the Leafs any big trade right now is one step forward, 2 steps back.
A bit late to the party, but...
ReplyDelete1. Are you happy Brian Burke is still the Leaf GM—yes or no? In the absence of anyone else who I think can do better and who's available, yes.
2. Are you satisfied with the job he has done in almost four years on the job? (I know there may be no simple "yes" or "no" response, but give it your best shot...) Unequivocally no. He's promised much, and may have strengthened the substructure, but his record with the Leafs is very disappointing. He's had plenty of time to show better results.
3. Is Burke the right guy to take the Leafs to the next step in their re-build? I'm giving him the benefit of one more year. But I have my doubts.
4. Do you want Roberto Luongo here? (Do you want Luongo here if there is a real cost, or only if the deal is mostly the Canucks taking on our un-wanted salary?) I don't want Luongo here, period. Because I don't think just "making the playoffs" should be our goal. We need someone who can carry the load for a few years, and Luongo has shown himself to be vulnerable to playoff pressure. With the Canucks! Think how he'd be with the gaffe-prone Leaf D.
5. The fact that it hasn’t happened so far this summer clearly demonstrates that, CBA realities aside, the Leafs cannot acquire a bona fide number-one center (Marleau, Getzlaf, etc.) without giving up something big in return—like Jake Gardiner. Do you still want them to aggressively pursue a high-end centre? Sure - but not at the cost of a "franchise" player. And there's our problem. Our underachievers aren't tempting currency in a player transaction.
6. If they can’t bring in a top center, what is your next “acquisition” priority—goaltending, defensemen or forwards? (Only cite one...) I'd like to see a shut-down defenceman. No goalie is going to save us if we can't clear the puck efficiently!
7. Are you happy that Randy Carlyle is the coach heading into this next phase of the re-build? I liked our run-and-gun team. I'm not looking forward to a season of grind-it-out. More importantly, we weren't built for grinding. I'm hopeful a middle ground will be found. My gut says Eakins will be the coach in two years, and that's when we'll be ready to contend in the post season.
8. Can the Maple Leafs make the playoffs in the mediocre Eastern Conference with their roster as it is right now, given the apparent improvements made by their competition this summer? I have my doubts. I just don't see the improvement.
9. Who do you anticipate will be the Leafs’ top-six defensemen when they break camp for the regular season in October? Phaneuf, Gunner, Liles, Franson, Gardner, Komi.
10. Is there one well-regarded Maple Leaf that you may like a lot, but would be prepared to give up in a trade to acquire what you think the club needs? Clarke MacArthur.
A sobering, but not unfair, assessment. Thanks Alex.
ReplyDeleteBetter late than never, Gerund O'.
ReplyDeleteYour responses are measured and reasonable. I think a lot of us expected more by now, though as you (and others) have said, at least there are assets in place now.
Your reference to Eakins triggers my earlier thought (above): If Burke could have a re-do, would he now bring in Eakins, given the youth and type of roster that it is?
Thanks Gerund O'...
1. No.
ReplyDelete2. No.
3. He has not gotten any results to warrant an extension, so no.
4. No. Not because I wouldn't take Luongo per se, but because of his contract. And his contract is a problem for me, because we're competitively not in a great position to take it on.
5. I can't see a legit top centre being available for a price that's anywhere near affordable, so I see giving a look at what we already have a much more realistic option.
6. A solid shutdown d-man. A veteran goalie if our young tandem is struggling even without the trademark severe defensive lapses of the past few seasons.
7. I'm still wary of the concept of Carlyle as a rebuild coach, but I'll give him a year to show he's at least a clear upgrade over Wilson.
8. Hey, the Panthers did it, so of course it's possible. To actually do it, quite a few players will need to do a lot better. And that's where a coach should step in.
9. Phaneuf, Gunnarsson, Gardiner. Then, barring Holzer really impressing at the camp, Liles and Komisarek, because their trade value can only go up if they actually play, and Franson, who is on a contract year and won't need to play for Wilson, anymore. Do we even have contracted defencemen beyond those guys?
10. I wouldn't consider any player untouchable, but return for Grabovski, Kessel or Gardiner would have to be pretty damn good.
Thanks for chiming in on this one, CGLN. And as you say, if the Panthers (and I'll throw in the Senators) can come out of nowhere to make the playoffs, anything is on the table...
ReplyDelete