After watching the NHL (and AHL) playoffs, are the Leafs “this much away”…or are they “that much away”….?

Some recent Leaf posts that might be of interest as we wait for the new Cup winner and the beginning of some real activity around the Leafs leading up to the entry draft....

• Will Jake Gardiner be physical enough for NHL playoff hockey?

• A Kadri post from a year ago that I think may still be relevant....

• When NHL stars actually got paid more to be guest analysts on TV than they did to actually play in the NHL playoffs...

• Remembering what it was actually like when the Leafs were in the Cup finals....

****

Some Toronto fans, I realize, don’t watch the NHL playoffs much because, with the Leafs absent (yet again), it’s hard to get cranked up without a personal rooting interest.  I understand that.  Other fans, though, just love good hockey and find solace in watching successful teams play with heart and a ton of grit at a time of year that, admittedly, wasn’t exactly made for indoor sports like hockey.

I’m kind of in the middle.  As I’ve mentioned here many times before, I get a big kick out of the first round of the NHL playoffs every single year.  I find something singularly appealing about 16 teams fighting like mad for every inch of ice, underdogs and favorites alike, for a seemingly (at least when the spring dance begins) distant shot at hockey’s holy grail:  the Stanley Cup.  It’s captivating stuff.  The hockey is inevitably tough, skilled, exhilarating—until bodies and teams begin to break down under the wear and tear as the playoffs wear on.

What observing—and to a certain extent “assessing”—the playoffs does does, however, is provide a window into what other franchises have done to get to this rarified place, where competing for a championship is more than just a shot in the dark.  What have we noticed?  Well, we’ve seen the Capitals go from run and go over the past couple of seasons to numbingly defensive; the Rangers build a team full  of guys who block an inordinate number of shots in front of the world’s best goalie; a Bruin team that is pretty tough (though also skilled) but didn’t have enough to get back to that elusive final stage of the playoffs a second season in a row.

We’ve also seen a Red Wing team that is excellent across the board every year but no longer has the depth to go all the way; a Nashville squad that, on paper, seems built for ultimate success but somehow lost its way this spring.  Then there is the Canucks, a favorite to win it all every spring because of Luongo and a ton of talent and depth.  The Blues rode a coaching change to regular-season glory and a top seed.  And we haven’t even talked about the two clubs that are still in the finals, the surprising (for me) Devils, and the resurgent (until a couple of days ago) Kings—who both who rely on skill, yes, but also very much on system play (doesn’t everyone?), great goalkeeping and a work-ethic built around tenacious checking and being hard on the puck.

So, having observed these 2012 playoffs, and also the long march of the Marlies to an (almost) Calder Cup championship (the poor Marlies must have felt like, by AHL standards, they were playing the 1977 Habs in the finals…the Admirals were pretty good) what is your honest sense of how far our Maple Leafs are from a) the playoffs and more importantly b) serious Stanley Cup aspirations?

Are we “this far” (hold your thumb and index finger an inch apart)?  Or are we “that far” away (hold your hands about a foot apart)?

This may be a question better asked in October, when the 2012-'13 NHL season beckons for real.  I recognize that, for now, we await some fairly important considerations:  the entry draft of course (though I’m not sure we will witness any immediate pay back regardless of who we select…); free agency, as well and the always-important summertime trade scenarios.  That will undoubtedly tilt the playing field quite a bit in the days ahead, though, as I often suggest here, it’s not as though the Leafs are the only team looking to improve—every other NHL organization has the same intention.

From my perspective, here are a few basic thoughts (forgive the obvious nature of many of these observations):

• We lack a game-breaking goalie like Quick, Smith, Lundvquist, what Brodeur has been (still is?), etc.  We just don’t.  We all know it.  I know the term “game-breaker” is usually reserved for players who can break a game open offensively, but goalies have the same impact at the other end—and an inspirational one, to boot.  Goaltending is that important, though it doesn't work in isolation.  Many Leaf supporters desperately want Luongo.  For me, he’s not the answer, but he would no doubt provide a regular-season upgrade.  I still think Reimer can play but I acknowledge the clear question marks around him.  And while I know Ben Scrivens will get a big push after his performance with the Marlies, I’m not convinced he’s the guy, at this point. Can he be some day?  Maybe. Regardless, whoever plays goal, improved team play in front of him will make the goalie that much better.

• We do not have a stud defenseman who can take a game over.  No Doughty, no Pronger, no Chara.  Neither do the Devils—and they’ve done just fine, I realize.  But I do think we miss that “big guy” who we can count on at both ends of the ice.

• Like many of you, I am awed by Jake Gardiner’s poise and skating ability, but I saw a lot of things in his game throughout the AHL playoffs that he needs to improve upon.  If I’m an opposing coach, I’d just have my forwards keep pounding him because he will cough the puck up.  (He probably played too many games this season.)  He’s young, and will obviously get bigger, stronger and more experienced.  He may become an All-Star.  But like most young defensemen, he has holes in his games that bear watching.

• I know people want to move on, but I’ll say it again.  I think we traded away a solid young “d” man with size and toughness in Keith Aulie.  Somehow he went from being good enough to play with Phaneuf at the age of 21 to a minor-leaguer.  I’m not suggesting he will be an All-Star, but overall I really liked his game against the Marlies in the Calder Cup finals—smart with the puck, moved it well, not many giveaways (at least from what I saw).  And he didn’t stray out of position often, while showing he could win important puck battles around net and along the boards. Everyone says we have lots of young depth on defence, so we could afford to give Aulie up, but I'll believe it when I see it in action at the NHL level.

• We are so weak in the middle compared with good NHL teams.  We just are. Bozak, Grabovski, Connolly, Steckel?  Grabbo a gutsy little guy, and I like him, and Bozak has some skill.  Steckel wins draws.  OK.  But that doesn’t really compare with what most elite teams throw out there every night.  I recognize that people want to build up Colborne, but I just don’t see the fire in him.  Some vision, some skill, yes.  Size and strength (when applied), obviously.  Now, if he could be Dustin Penner on Penner’s best days, that would be something.  I fear he may be more like Penner—in Penner’s less inspired moments.

• What size up front do we have to win the hundreds of battles you have to win to advance at this time of year in the NHL playoffs?

• Where is the team toughness that a few of us have talked about here for the past couple of seasons?  I’m not talking about simply dropping the gloves and fighting.  You can always pick those guys up in the summer, and Burke has already wasted money on that.  I’m talking about players with the drive that is needed to compete at the highest levels in the playoffs.  We still haven’t had a roster (despite Burke being on the job going on four years) that competes hard enough, consistently enough to make the playoffs in the weak Eastern Conference.  (It’s either lack of will or lack of skill in Burke’s roster, take your pick…)  So if we haven’t been able to even make the playoffs, what makes us think this roster can quickly be at a level above that?

• There are some nice-looking youngsters with the Marlies but honestly, which ones are sure-fire NHL impact players?  I think Frattin is a keeper, but is Holzer an improvement over what we already have?  Is D’Amigo ready?  Would Colborne (projected to be so with the big team here) be a "second-line centre" on any other NHL team?  Is Kadri as good as we think—and hoped?

For me, the above just scratches the surface.  (I haven’t even touched on whether the Leaf “skill” guys are going to be solid playoff performers, because I have no clue…)  This is not to be negative, simply to provide, from my end, a perspective on where the Leafs are "at".  My bottom line thought is they are actually a long ways away, not just “one or two players” away from being a top team.

How do you see it?