How many Leafs are “must keep” under Carlyle? Part II of II in our "look ahead"

Yesterday, we talked about which Maple Leaf players provided the team with the kind of true toughness that all really good teams need not just to get to the playoffs but to be in a position to make something happen once they get there.

For me, the list of Leafs who provide that important ingredient is pretty short, unfortunately.

As part of this analysis, many of us likely agree that the team also needs leadership, and some veteran players who would (hopefully) bring something to the dressing room that just isn't there right now.  This is an issue that we have discussed here quite a bit, and if you'd like to chime in on that missing piece of the Leaf equation, by all means jump in.

We have kind of reached the stage in the annual Maple Leaf “look into the future” where we wonder, as we all step back and reflect but also try to look ahead, who are “keepers” and who may be elsewhere when the 2012-’13 NHL season begins.  What adds a bit to this discussion is, of course, that we have a new coach in town- one who likes a different brand of hockey from his predecessor and also believes in a very different approach to moving the puck and playing a “system”.

Too, we all understand that the existing salaries, along with cap realities (and the reality that there are a lot of other unsuccessful teams looking for the same things- a number-one goaltender, a top centre, grit, etc.) will impact what the Leafs can and cannot do with their current roster. But when Randy Carlyle sits down and debriefs with Brian Burke via traditional exit interviews this week (that process may have concluded on Monday, but I would think they'll be talking for the next few days) and provides input for his General Manager when it comes to summertime decisions, it’s natural for us to wonder:  who exactly does he really want Burke to keep on the Maple Leaf roster?

We all know that the Leafs have already turned over the roster a ton in the last four years, since John Ferguson was replaced by Cliff Fletcher.  The pace of those changes accelerated under Burke.  So we are where we are, though I’m not quite sure where that is.  We know the team is young. We know there is some skill here.  We know there is speed on the current roster.  But we also know that the style of play we saw, say, in the opening weeks and months of the 2011-’12 season, is dead.  The Leafs will be a tight-checking, defense-oriented, line-matching team going forward.  The coach will expect them to be very hard to play against, become a physical team that will drop the gloves and grind down the opposition—a team that will be able to hold a lead and also display prowess on special teams.

That’s a tall order, but if you’re not an elite offensive juggernaut (which many thought the Leafs were becoming not that long ago—a mini-juggernaut at least), some version of the above approach seems to be the ticket in this day and age if you hope to at least gain entry into the playoffs in the NHL.  (Personally, I prefer a hybrid approach- a team with grit but one that can make plays and score goals, you know, the whole Detroit thing...)

So here’s the question again, who does Carlyle absolutely want to keep?  Who are the players that he will say to Burke:  these guys have to be part of the team’s future for the Leafs to take not only the “next” step, but jump all the way to becoming the type of team that can make waves in the playoffs—and perhaps even make their way to the Stanley Cup finals, which would be a first for this franchise since, yes, 1967.

Let’s look at the roster and try to determine who Carlyle will want here:

Goal—Reimer, Gustavsson (UFA), Scrivens, Rynnas.

Defense—Schenn, Phaneuf, Komisarek, Franson, Gardiner, Gunnarsson, Liles, Blacker, Holzer.

Forwards—Armstrong, Lupul, Steckel, Bozak, Ashton, Kadri, Frattin, Colborne, Kessel, Grabovski, Kulemin, Devane, Mueller, Brown, Connolly, Crabb, Lombardi, MacArthur, Rosehill.

So, based on what you have seen about Carlyle, and everything we think we know about him as a coach through his years in the minors and with the Ducks, let me know who you believe he really wants to keep.

I realize the fact that certain players will be with the Leafs in the fall does not necessarily mean they are guys Carlyle wants here (roster realities and the cap will impact roster decisions, of course) but with this as a backdrop….if Carlyle were to put names on a piece of paper- and then hand the piece of paper to Burke across the table-  these are the guys I think would be “must keep” in his eyes (I’m not suggesting I agree with these names; just who I think Carlyle would ideally want to keep...):

Steckel—as a role guy, face-off man and penalty-killer

Schenn—a young, physical defenseman with size who can hit

Lupul—Carlyle certainly won’t push him out after their mess together in Anaheim

Grabovski—not big but he can certainly contribute under Carlyle’s system and he plays hard at both ends

Frattin—has the potential to be a power forward, which the Leafs will need

Colborne—a center with youth, potential and size (and Dudley has already come out publicly and predicted he will be here next season; can't really go back now, can they?)

Devane—young player with size and toughness, but not likely on the roster in 2012-'13

Gardiner—Carlyle had Niedermayer; he knows you need elite smarts and skill on the blue line

Brown—plays hard

For me, I sense Carlyle and Burke have similar perspectives, and I sense the following guys will actually be here, all things being equal, come training camp in September (it’s a longer list):

• Schenn
• Phaneuf
• Gardiner
• Steckel
• Lupul
• Kessel
• Frattin
• Colborne
• Grabovski
• Connolly
• Brown
• Bozak
• Kulemin
• Brown

That’s my early roster  “projection” for October - not including the free-agent signings or trades (and any draft choices or Marlies who could make the club).

That core was not good enough to make the playoffs this season.  We know there will be additions, including a goalie, one would guess (though I'll keep saying: I love Reimer.  I want him to succeed here...).

Send your thoughts along.