The Marlies, "prospects" and realistic expectations

Episode #2 of our new "Leaf Matters" podcast - a show dedicated exclusively to the Maple Leafs and Leaf fans - is now available.

Click here to listen to this week's show.

As with my regular posts here at Vintage Leaf Memories, we won't always agree on the topics of the day, but hopefully you will enjoy the podcasts because they provide Leaf-oriented talk and some food for thought...Thanks for tuning in!

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Those who follow VLM know I don’t get too worked up about the first few games of any new season.  It takes time to work through the kinks, even after training camp.  There are adjustments because of roster changes, new linemates to find chemistry with, all that stuff.  Besides, in an 82-game NHL season, as we were reminded last season, sometimes it's not how you start, it's how you finish.

When it comes to the Maple Leafs, I start to pull some serious observations together by the, say, 10-game mark.  20 games into the season, I think we usually have something substantial to discuss, in terms of assessing what track the team seems to be on and how certain individual players are trending.

So I am loathe to dip all too deeply into the Toronto Marlie analysis pool at this point in the young American Hockey League season because a) I’m not that close to the situation b) I only see them sporadically, and usually just on TV  c) many other hockey writers and bloggers follow them much more closely than I can and they do a great job of covering the team and d) hey it's the Marlies, not the Maple Leafs. (I recognize the importance of a strong farm system, for sure.  But big numbers at the junior or AHL level do not guarantee success at the NHL level, so I'm cautious when it comes to how a guy plays in the AHL.  It's just a different level - and type - of play.)

But given the hype that surrounded the team heading into a new season—because they are home to so many of the Leaf prospects—it’s hard not to be somewhat aware of how the Marlies are doing.  Kids like Sparks, Rielly, Finn and Biggs are still playing at the junior level, but the names we are even more familiar with—Ashton, Colborne, D’Amigo, Holzer, Abbott, Blacker, Komarov and yes, the ever-enigmatic Nazem Kadri—are on display these days with the baby Leafs. (I consider Gardiner a full-time Leaf already and talked about his development yesterday.)

And in this instance, I use the word “on display” with intent.  Because of the NHL lockout—and of course the obvious proximity regarding where the Marlies "are" and play essentially just up the street from the ACC (at the Ricoh Coliseum)—I’m trying to remember the last time there was this much focus—scrutiny, really - on a Maple Leaf farm team.

These guys are under a microscope like never before.  Games are on TV- live, and not just on LeafsTV.  TSN and the Toronto newspapers are covering the Marlies like it matters.  Bloggers are out in force covering the games.  It’s same with junior hockey when it comes to Leaf prospects.  (We are getting daily reports on Tyler Biggs, for example.  I'm sure he's a nice player, from what I've seen, but it's easy to curb my enthusiasm.  I can't count the number of junior guys over the years who have looked, "big",  "awesome", "mobile", "physical", etc. at the junior level.  That's why they're called prospects:  they haven't done anything yet.)

They may some day, and if they do, hey, that's great.  And those who "covered" them on the player's road to the NHL can sit back and tell the rest of us..." I told you he'd be great...".  What we won't read about are the many more "prospects" who basically never much got past that prospect stage, who were written about just as breathlessly. Those columns are usually forgotten.

I guess we, as Leaf fans, are so desperate to believe that the cavalry is coming in the form of outstanding young players in our "system" that every hit, every nice pass, every good play makes us want to think that this “next” group of emerging (potential…prospective…hopeful??) Maple Leafs will be the real deal, and will finally help turn the moribund franchise around.

So, only 8 games into the season, and acknowledging I have only watched the farm team play irregularly so far this fall, I flip to the standings and stats page today and what do I see? The Marlies have a record of 3 wins, 4 losses and an overtime loss.  I mean, it’s pretty meaningless stuff, given that we’re not even at the aforementioned 10-game mark where I begin to take things a bit seriously.  (And hey, two wins in a row and suddenly it will look like their season is going just fine...)

But here’s the interesting little twist, at least to me.  When we look at the simple statistics for some of the prospects I cited above, the numbers are not exactly imposing.

Kadri  - 0 goals, 3 assists and a minus 2 so far

D’Amigo - 0 goals, 2 assists and an "even" plus/minus

Ashton - 1 goal, 1 assist and a plus 1

Komarov - 1 goal 2 assists and a plus 2

Colborne - 0 goals 4 assists and a plus 3

Now, those very un-examined and somewhat superficial offensive statistics rarely reveal how an individual is actually playing, either shift to shift or night to night.  Plus/minus numbers are meaningless for the most part at this time of year.  They can change radically in no time, so context is important.  The goals and assists totals don’t necessarily reflect if a guy is winning face-offs, creating turnovers on the forecheck, or playing a tough, grinding, physical style.

I know what I saw from D’Amigo, for example, at times in the AHL playoffs like year, and I liked a lot about how he played.  Can that translate into becoming a useful NHL players?  That, I still don’t know. But I do know I'm not  especially concerned with how he looks right now, in November.

Komarov is here to be an agitator, so the offensive numbers won’t matter that much.  Can he irritate, and take his guy out of the game often enough to be a productive Leaf?  He has shown some of that so far with the Marlies.  Though he is a fair bit older at 25 than a lot of our prospects, we won’t really know what he brings until he has some experience at the NHL level.

To me, Kadri should already be a full-time regular in the NHL.  Not that he has necessarily earned the gig, but we need to see, at some point, if he can play.  Please, no more yanking him back and forth to the Marlies.  Let’s just see if the kid will put up points and contribute at the next level—but to do that, he needs a real opportunity—not just a few games being run out there on different lines with different linemates every night.  (And being told he's not strong enough, fast enough or turns the puck over too much.  At some point, just let the kid play....)

So no, I’m not terribly worried about the fairly modest offensive numbers for these guys at this point.  It’s far more important to actually watch and assess how a guy is playing than just looking at their “stats” after a few games.  But all this said, the “numbers” do remind us that, as I’ve tried to say here in this space many times, every NHL team has “prospects” that look great at some point.  The Leafs  can’t just rely on these “prospects” as though they are going to be the answer at the NHL level when it comes to making the big club a serious contender in the Eastern Conference.

They may all turn out great.  But maybe only one or two will ever earn a full-time gig with the blue and white and have some kind of impact.  I don’t have a clue at this point.

It's the same thing with the junior kids I mentioned above.  I won't analyze every shift from Tyler Biggs with the Oshawa Generals, whether he is putting up points or playing “well” or not.  That’s junior hockey.  Others can do that much better than I can.  And as I said above, I’ve seen so many guys over the past forty years light it up in junior hockey- but at the NHL level, they are at best third-liners (as important a role as that can be), and many don’t even make it, or last very long.

So, like most fans, while I will enjoy watching the “kids” develop, whether they are with the Marlies or in junior hockey, I will hold my expectations for all these players  until I see the whites of their eyes—and my own eyes tell me they can contribute to making the Leafs a strong team some day.