Grading the Leafs fairly—now and in terms of what they can/will be, Part I

I’m not sure there is a perfect time to critique our Maple Leaf roster, but 29 games into a short season  (and with a few days off before their next game) feels about right.  My intent over the next couple of days is to “grade” the Leaf goalies, forwards and defensemen in a straightforward, fair manner (at least based on my own observations to this point in the season).  At the same time, I will attempt to project what I believe they “can be” in a Leaf uniform and whether they are a “keeper” for when the Leafs are actual Cup contenders- or may best be used as trade bait to bring in different pieces for when we are a legitimate contender.

Here goes.

Goal

James Reimer:  B   Projected:  B+  (keeper, at least as a back-up)

If I was assigning a grade for Reimer based on what many Leaf fans were expecting this season, he would deserve a higher slot.  But if we are doing this within the context of the expectations of an NHL goalie—especially a first-string goalie—then I feel a straight “B” is perfectly fair.  He’s had more pretty good games than not, in my view.  And I do not believe he has struggled as badly as some seem to  feel since he returned from his most recent injury.  (I sometimes think fans start clumping games together just because he lost or let in a weak goal, or conveniently forget the big stops he makes a key times.)  He struggled early against Pittsburgh a few games back but was stellar in stealing a point back for the Leafs that night.  His teammates let him down in Winnipeg.  He sure gave the Leafs a chance in the shootout against Winnipeg Saturday night.  We all know he has flaws, but he’s a gamer and deserves a decent grade based on what he has done so far this year.

Ben Scrivens:  B-     Projected:  B-  (potential asset to be moved)

I’m hardly a goalie expert.  Maybe Scrivens will become a bonafide star, but my sense is he is what he is- a guy who battles and will win some games but does not project as a frontline NHL goalie over a period of time.  I’d be happy to be proven wrong.  He had a nice run earlier this season. As a fan, I’m not entirely comfortable with him yet, but I don't question his guts or competitiveness.

Defense

Dion Phaneuf:  B+  Projected:  B+   (keeper, unlikely to be moved though I would not oppose a trade)

I don't see Phaneuf getting better than he is right now. Again, I could be off base, but I see him as not as tough as many think he is, and still too likely to be soft on certain plays.  I’m not judging him based on leadership here.  If I was, the grade would be lower.  But he brings enough to the table most nights at both ends of the rink to deserve a solid grade.

Carl Gunnarsson:  B-   Projected:  B  (used to think he was indispensible, now could be trade bait)

I thought Gunner was slow off the mark this season, and he has been playing hurt for a while. Overall he has continued to do his job, still usually limiting his mistakes and making the simple plays. He has not quite developed the way I had hoped a couple of years ago, but he’s been good enough to earn a solid grade in my mind. He doesn’t take bad penalties so he doesn’t hurt his team in that regard.  As a dependable guy, he gets a B-, though even on a better team I’m not sure his ceiling is all that much higher at this point.

Cody Franson:  B   Projected:   B+  (as Gardiner and Rielly move into the lineup, he could be a trading piece for a team looking for what he has to offer…)

Franson has emerged as a guy who has to be in the lineup pretty much every night this season, even on a squad loaded with defensemen.  He is not super physical, or overly tough, but he does a lot of things pretty well.  He can skate, can eliminate his man and move the puck.   It’s easy to notice that he is adept at getting the puck to the net from the point.  That he has put up 17 points and is a plus 11 so far is a sign that he has earned his ice time.  He may have a bit more upside in his game.  We’ll see.

Mike Kostka:   C+  Projected:  B-

I’m still on the Kostka bandwagon, though he has been a healthy scratch lately.  If he was placed on waivers, I think he'd be snapped up in a second.  Yes, I see his mistakes but we’re hardly a mistake-free group on defense.  He’s not exactly alone.  Even if he did not come on board as a 27 year-old “rookie” and been perceived as an “AHL player” only, I would give him credit for not being a liability most nights.  He grades out modestly, but I feel people have been a little harsh when we should mostly be thankful the guy can actually play.  Maybe the league has "caught up with him", but Carlyle has seen something—and so have I.  Let's not make him a whipping boy.

Mark Fraser:  B    Projected:  B  (keeper as a third-pairing guy)

Now, if I was grading Fraser on my surprise at how well he has played when I barely knew who he was six months ago, he’d get an A.  But while I love his attitude and how he can play physically and make simple plays, he’s not a first-pairing, big minute guy.  He just isn’t. He’s playing well because, yes, he’s done a good job, but also because Carlyle is playing him the right way—putting him in a position to succeed most of the time.  Fraser has become a guy who I feel good about most of the time when he is on the ice.

John-Michael Liles:  C   Projected  C+/B-

I’m not sure it is possible to give Liles a fair grade, given how much time he has missed as a healthy scratch and also coming off a long lockout.  He's playing now, and I thought he was “fine” when he was playing top-four minutes earlier in the season, but he was not sterling.  At his age, it’s unlikely there is a high ceiling for him.

Mike Komisarek:  No grade        (Could be traded)

Komisarek has not played anywhere near enough to assign a fair grade.  I actually thought he was performing at a decent level before he saw his playing time cut as a healthy scratch some time back.  He will no doubt be bought out this summer.

Korbinian Holzer:  C+  Projected:  B

I like the physical edge to Holzer’s game, and I sense there is an ability to be a pretty good player at this level.  I’m not sure his ceiling is that of a first-pairing defenseman, but I’m somewhat open-minded about his overall potential.  They have to find the right fit for him.  His plus/minus (minus 12), not a sure-fire barometer, I realize, is concerning, though he has been matched up against some top lines at times.  So I think a C+ grade is fair. 

I know people want Gardiner here, and Kostka and Holzer back with the Marlies.  I'm guessing that will happen at some point.

Do you see things differently?  Your views, as always, are welcome.  Let me know what you think.

Tomorrow, we’ll tackle the forwards.

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If you haven't been here at VLM recently, some posts that could be of interest....

• Reimer or Scrivens: who should get the net the rest of the way?

• Why Sidney Crosby scares me when he's on the ice, a bit like Bobby Orr

• Why Jake Gardiner's agent hasn't exactly expedited the young defenseman's return to the Leafs

• Some thoughts on the ever-divisive "fighting" debate in hockey