Our Maple Leafs: the weaknesses have not been exposed…yet

I’m  as happy about the consistently strong play from the blue and white this season as any Leaf observer.  I’ve been at this gig (being a fan) for many decades and there is not a better feeling (assuming other things in one’s life are OK- health, family, etc.) than waking up in the morning when the team you really love is doing well.  It just adds to the other nice aspects of a person’s overall life experience.  And when the “sports fan” part of the life experience is good for we Maple Leaf folks, it usually leads to hockey in the spring—and lots of people driving around honking horns, or just out and about while displaying Leaf flags and/or wearing the home side’s jersey with pride.

Significantly, in those heady times, you can actually see people walking around feeling good about being decked out in Maple Leaf blue. It's nice to see, though many young Leaf fans may not yet have experienced that feeling, I realize.

Those who visit VLM fairly regularly know I have been saying since well before the season even started that, if there was a season (and that was in doubt, lest we forget) the Leafs had a legitimate shot of making the playoffs.  With a record of 11 wins and 8 losses, I still feel that way, but not simply based on my initial thesis that the East is just not that strong.  It’s that, yes, but also that the Leafs are playing most nights like one of those annoying teams we (in our lean years) used to face.  You know what I'm talking about:  those teams that, when you look at them on paper, you think, “Hey, we can beat these guys, no problem”.  But when the game starts, the other team works harder, smarter and wants it just that much more.

Ands that’s what the Leafs have become, at least for the moment.  That annoying team that, if it’s a test of skill and will, we may just win more often than not.  And credit goes to a lot of players who are not household names anywhere but Toronto, and to a coach who has—again I stress “for now”—this group playing cohesively and as a unit. (Against Ottawa, the Sens pushed back more than our opponents have much of this season, and were full measure for the win.  I would have liked Carlyle to call a time-out before that last face-off in our zone, which I tweeted about right after the game...)  

By the way, as an aside, I think Ron Wilson gets trashed a bit too much in this regard.  I was certainly first in line to write about Wilson’s toxic attitude with the press.  That was just so unnecessary.  But I don’t buy (as I heard someone say on the radio this past week) that Wilson just threw a puck on the ice and let guys do whatever they wanted.  C’mon.  Do we really think a guy who has won a World Cup, had success at the Olympics and won as many games at the NHL level as Wilson did had “no system” of play whatsoever?  We/I may not like how some players were dealt with, or how they were developed while Wilson was here, but he also did not have this present roster to work with.  There was no JVR, no Komarov, no McClement—and no game-saving goaltending.  Not that this team is stuffed with “stars”, but the pieces, as a collective group, are clearly superior than what Wilson had to work with for four seasons.  You may disagree, but that’s my view.  (And again, it’s early in Carlyle’s time here—let’s revisit whether he should be canonized in a couple of years, when the challenge is not just the very low bar of “making the playoffs” but actually striving to win a championship.)

In any event, we’re all happy that the team has been highly competitive.  It’s really good to see. But we should also remind ourselves that we are a long way from where we need to be, that success over 20 games in a short season filled with injuries across the board is perhaps a suspect “test” of just where we are at.

Carlyle’s system has worked so far, absolutely.  Can I describe it adequately?  I’m not a hockey scientist so no, I can’t—and won’t even try.  But to my old layman’s eyes, it seems that the Leafs are about making safe, easy escape passes; set plays in their own zone; a group that is willing to fight for the puck more than Leaf teams in recent years in the tough areas; a team that asks its best players to be responsible all over the ice but still lets them play with creativity when the occasion allows. There is a focus on special teams- and still more work to do in that regard, to be sure.

I’m sure it’s a lot more complicated than that, but that’s what I “see”.  And yes, I realize we are give up too many shots, don’t supposedly take enough shots and that will catch up with us, or something.  Maybe so.  We’ll see.

My reservations are even more basic, however.  I like what I’ve seen from Reimer and Scrivens most nights but I also know that goaltending can go south in a hurry.  In any given season, teams go on hot and cold streaks and it is often attributable to how their goalie is playing.  You know I’m a big Reimer guy and have virtually no opinion about Scrivens except that he battles, which is good.  But Carlyle’s “system”, like most coaches, relies on superb goaltending.  Yes, defensemen have to clear the puck effectively, distribute it smartly and move people out from the front of the net, but that’s always the case, regardless of the coach or the system.  If you don’t do that successfully, generally you’re in trouble.

But again, a lot of this success—as much as we want to attribute it to the coach, his system and a renewed work ethic—still comes down to goalies making key saves at crucial times.  If you don’t get big saves at timely moments, you can have the best plans, pre-game strategy sessions and “systems” and you will still likely lose most nights.

So no, this early season ‘success’ is not a mirage, any more than any other team on a nice run is doing it with “mirrors” when their goalie is hot.  But that can change—quickly.

Our defense is not bad.  Right now, Phaneuf looks pretty darn good most of the time.  I still love what Kostka is doing, partly because my expectations are modest and he continues to surpass them.  We know Gunner is hurt and that may be an issue going forward.  Fraser has been outstanding and Franson has made believers out of a lot of fans.  But I would still argue that this group is individually flawed.  Things are working because they have somehow managed to play well as a unit.

I think Gardiner will be here soon and maybe Holzer goes back down, though I have no idea what Carlyle is thinking.  But I’m just saying that this is about as good as this group of six defensemen is able to play, in my mind.  Can they maintain it?  Maybe they can.  But I’m not sure.

I’ve been surprised that teams are not being more physical with our forward lines.  If I was coaching against the Leafs, I’d make sure my guys were leaning on Bozak, Kessel, Kadri and Grabovski, making their life miserable after they touch or move the puck.  I’m not seeing them take the abuse they should—and likely will against good teams come playoff time.  Yes, I acknowledge our roughhouse crew of Brown, Orr and MacLaren has allowed our smaller forwards to play freer and bigger.  But not every team will be afraid of the Leafs come playoff time.  The players I mentioned are tough, no doubt, but not super skilled.  How much ice can they afford to be given when things get a little more important late in March and into April?  Will they still be able to protect our smaller forwards, or those who don’t really like the tough going?

I raise these points today not to be negative, simply to provide, as I try to do here, some perspective.  There are some nice signs with this team, we would all generally agree on that.  But we don’t have proven goaltending (though yes, you have to play to get a chance to prove yourself…).  And we do have defensemen who, on their own merits, are not without warts.  Our forwards have been pretty good but as I have said before, we aren’t exactly playing the ’77 Habs these days.  Mediocre opposition makes teams look pretty good and maybe better than they really are.

So should we feel good?  Of course.  Will we make the playoffs?  I’m convinced we can.  Am I just warning against the inevitable two or three-game losing streak?  Not really.  What I’m talking about is beyond that. It’s that, in my mind, I’m already setting my ‘expectation bar’ higher, and for the Leafs to impress me at that higher 'level', well, they will need to be even better—and against the best teams.

For now, we're just excited they are playing well and in a playoff hunt.  But as has always been the case, once we get to the playoffs, flaws will be exposed and we, as fans, will be a lot more nit-picky in our game-to-game assessments.  We'll notice every little mistake, every man not blasted out of the crease in front of our goalie, every turnover, every bad pass and every missed scoring chance.  We might not forgive, say, Komarov and Kulemin's goal scoring totals quite as readily unless they are playing awful well defensively- a la Zezel, Osborne and Berg in the early to mid '90s.

There is little doubt the Leafs are better - and deeper - than they have been in recent years.  And in a compromised Conference, they are certainly competitive with any team on any given night.

But more than that?  I won’t rubber stamp that one, yet.

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For those who missed it and might be interested, here is the piece I did yesterday about the likelihood of Brian Burke as the new General Manager in Buffalo...