What are your honest expectations of—and for—Phil Kessel in Toronto?

For those who may not have visited VLM in a while, here are some recent posts:

• Who will be the Leaf centers this coming season?

• What do the new MLSE owners really feel about the new CBA?

• When Maple Leaf hockey "kicks in" for you each year...

• Do you wish Burke was more like Paul Holmgren?

• Which Leaf will you miss seeing the most if there's a lockout?

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For today, let’s not worry about the likelihood of a September hockey lockout.  Let’s move forward as though we are going to have hockey (who knows, maybe saner heads will indeed prevail….) this coming season- and a season that starts on time, at that.

What I’d like to focus on is the player in our line-up who is a bona fide offensive star.  To me, he’s not a superstar, but he is an elite player, from a skill standpoint. I’m talking of course about Phil Kessel.

Some of you who stop by VLM fairly regularly will know that I’ve used the phrase, “he is what he is” in the past when speaking about Kessel.  By that I have meant that he is a player with high-end speed, a very explosive (not just “quick”) release and the ability to puck the puck on—and in—the net.  He is prone to droughts as most players (even goal-scorers) are.  He is a mediocre, at best, defensive player. I love the he can use both sides of the ice, and is dangerous flying in on his off wing.  When he does that and heads to the middle of the ice and suddenly snaps that wrist-shot, goalies are often caught off balance, creating at the very least rebound opportunities for his linemates.  The guy generates scoring opportunities at high speed, not something everyone can do, even in the NHL.

Of course part of being “what he is” is also his perceived laziness, or maybe putting it more nicely, his seeming inability to play hard every shift, every night. Turnovers at the other team’s blueline or anywhere, for that matter - one of the not infrequent criticisms of young Phil - rarely make a coach happy, even coaches who like to give their players some creative freedom.  (And I'm not sure Carlyle is one of those coaches...)

Now, part of my “he is what he is” comment reflects my perception that, at least at this stage in his development as an NHL player, he is in fact not more than what I describe above.  That is, he is not, for example, a leader.  He is also not a physical guy, despite his decent size. And, he just doesn’t give the impression that he is “all in”, all the time. (Being caught on film yawning on the bench in the middle of a  game, as happened last season, doesn’t help the negative perception…)

In short, he’s no, say, Doug Gilmour.

Thus, my comment—though not a final career assessment, for sure— that he “is what he is”.  A supremely talented young player, but one missing some "check marks" on his list of attributes.

Now, we all understand that players mature and develop over time.  For some, it takes longer than others to become complete, all-around players who are really good in both ends of the ice, who do more than make nice plays and score goals - as important as that has always been in hockey.  That said, some guys never really become solid two-way players at this level.  They remain fairly one-dimensional contributors while making a living scoring goals, and that’s fine.

But we can all name players who, over time, morphed into more than being an offensive threat.  I often cite Ken Hitchcock’s influence on Mike Modano, and Scotty Bowman’s on Steve Yzerman.  But there are many more examples of player growth that came with time, experience and added personal commitment, to be sure.

Is Kessel, for example, a “pressure” player?  I don’t think we know, because while he put up nice stats in his early career playoff appearances with the Bruins, he was not the player he is now, nor was he the focus of the opposition’s defensive preparations in those playoff series.  That playoff sample size is modest and not necessarily relevant to what he might do now.  In Toronto, Kessel has been playing regular-season games, putting up very nice numbers here, but rarely playing in what we might call meaningful match-ups—you know, in big, late-season  games that will make or break the Leafs being in the post-season. How would he respond?  We don't really know.

If he does help lead the Leafs to a playoff appearance soon, we can be assured he will be a huge part of what the opposition will look to thwart.  Kessel will undoubtedly face far more physical play than he is accustomed to, should the Leafs make the playoffs this coming spring.  Any playoff opponent that the Leafs encounter will surely look to take him “off his game”.  I don’t think Kessel likes to be hit (I realize not many guys do, but let’s be honest, some players do indeed thrive when a game is physical…) and I’m not sure he is the kind of player who will fight through the tough checking to make things happen in those situations, based on what I've seen in some difficult regular-season match-ups.

But my broader question today, as much for myself as for you, is: what will Kessel become in the years ahead?  Also, will the fact that he is now going to be somewhat constrained playing under Randy Carlyle not only curtail his offensive production but also his desire to stay in Toronto?

But the "Carlyle factor" aside (and both parties were making nice at the end of the regular season last spring...), what do we project when it comes to Kessel?  Just as scouts have to assess 18 year-olds and try to determine whether they can a) play some day in the NHL and if so, b) what kind of player they may turn out to be, we are now looking at a soon-to-be 25 year-old player who has already shown offensive prowess well beyond the vast majority of his colleagues, but, like some other great Leafs before him, often seems to leave us wanting more. (In historical terms, I'm thinking of, say, a Frank Mahovlich, the outstanding long-time Hall-of-Fame Leaf winger.  Kessel also brings to mind, as I've mentioned in this space before, someone like a Mike Walton - the 1960s Leafs speedster seen in action above right along with goaltender Bruce Gamble in one of those wonderful old Harold Barkley photos.  Walton may have been the most offensively skilled guy on those late 1960s Toronto teams), 

Do you see in Kessel a guy who will ever be a leader?  Right now, I don’t see it.  He’s a guy that, the last two springs, has not wanted to play for his national team at the World Championships. Yes, he had a minor injury this past April, but when I think of real “gamers”, real leaders, guys who really love the sport, they generally play past “minor” injuries when they have a chance to represent their country, especially when they are still young and don't have, for example, major family obligations.  (Heck, some guys do it every spring, even into their 30s...)

But it’s more than that.  He is a quiet, shy guy, at least when it comes to the media and all the public stuff that goes with being a professional athlete nowadays.  That’s not a bad thing at all—and not intended as a personal criticism of Kessel on my part—but I wonder if that discomfort will ever lessen, or will hinder any possibility that someone like Phil can ever be a “leader” in the way we tend, fair nor not, to think of leaders in the world of hockey.

Beyond that, do you one day see him becoming a better all-around player?  I don’t mean that just he becomes a little a bit better at his back-checking responsibilities. I’m talking about his overall play—his involvement at both ends of the ice.  His determination. The willingness to be physically engaged when necessary.  Playing hard.  Fighting through tough checking.  Making the players around him better (which I think he already does in many ways).

I certainly don’t expect a player like Kessel to fight for his dinner.  That’s not his thing.  He’s not Lucic, nor do I believe any of us are expecting him to be.  But many observers would like to see him develop into the best player he could be, without losing what has made him special thus far in his career.  Will he ever be a truly fierce competitor, for example?  I don’t know.

Phil Kessel is more naturally talented than most (even NHL) players can even dream of being.  But will he ever be more than what we see now?

What do you think?