Tim Connolly: still a potential key guy or just taking up space?

For me, the most impressive thing the Jets did on Tuesday night against the Leafs was the way they played in the final 60 seconds.  You don't often see a team bottle up the opposition the way they did, while "protecting" a one-goal lead.  The Leafs couldn't get the puck out of their own zone, much less set up in the Winnipeg zone.

A few quick thoughts:

• Winnipeg is one of those teams that is a classic "homer"- so much better at home than on the road.  Those that follow the team closely could no doubt explain why much better than I can.

• Kessel continued his tremendous season, with his 30th goal to open the scoring in the first period.  I've been talking all season about Kessel using his off-wing to create different looks for defensemen to contend with.  That first-period goal was a great example of how he can fly in at full speed on that off-wing, cut into the middle and release a shot that is so hard to pick up.  Great stuff.

• That was some move by Joey Crabb when he set up Lombardi after jumping out of the penalty box with about four minutes to go in the game.  I can't describe it, but it was slick....

• Monster?  He made some key saves in the third period, but I'm sure people will focus on the Jets' first goal.  I guess he overplayed that one but it was a heck of a backhand, too, I thought.  And Schenn did not exactly  make it hard for the goal-scorer.  (I'll say this, though.  We are way, way more analytical and critical these days than thirty and forty years ago.  Nowadays, we micro-asssess everything, and I'm not just talking about "Corsi" and "Fenwick" and all these sometimes useful modern-day statistics.  I mean so many of us, as fans, parse every play and if we could make it happen, guys would get cut or traded in the middle of a game.  There are so many replays, so many angles, middle-of-the-period "hot stove" chats that break down every little "mistake"...Sometimes we have to accept that these guys aren't perfect and the other team is trying to make a play, too.)

• One more thing:  let's not blame the travel or the back-to-back.  If we check the Leafs schedule lately, they've generally had plenty of time between games and some of their opponents have had tough back-to-backs.  That's life in professional hockey.  Sometimes there doesn't have to be an excuse.  Teams just lose sometimes, and that's OK.

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I have to admit to a certain bias right off the top.  I listen to a fair bit of Buffalo sports talk radio and I enjoy the afternoon show on WGR.  Have for years.  Why?  Well, the two guys “talking sports” (almost exclusively the Sabres and the Bills) don't pretend to be sports “journalists”, experts or “insiders”.  They are simply two experienced broadcasters whose job it is to talk about the local major-league teams, and I like what they bring to the show most days.  They’re fans, more than anything else—simply a bit more informed in some cases, perhaps, than those who don’t follow their local teams for a living.  (It almost reminds me of the ground-breaking sports "talk" show that really turned me on to that medium back in about 1970, the original WBZ "Sports Huddle" show.  It was just three or four guys from different walks of life talking about the Bruins, the Red Sox, Celtics, etc....They weren't journalists.  They were just opinionated individuals who could be irreverent, funny, insightful.  It was great stuff, listening on my Dad's tiny, broken down, crackling old radio...)

So when I speak today about Maple Leaf center Tim Connolly, I am keenly aware that I have no doubt been influenced by the tone and tenor of the Buffalo sports talk show hosts (and the views expressed by—and sometimes spewing from—the Buffalo-based callers last season) when it came to Connolly.  The view from the “cheap seats” with regard to the veteran forward was overwhelmingly, well…not positive.  Most observers seemed to see him as a guy well past his due date, though he was not necessarily old in hockey terms, of course.  But he was portrayed as  largely ineffective and un-involved.

When he signed with the Maple Leafs as a "back-up" plan free-agent this past summer, there was the usual buzz and hopeful sentiment that arises whenever the Leafs make a move.  People remembered the good years Connolly had in Buffalo and rationalized the rather large amount that it cost the Leafs (and their cap allowance) by saying, well, if things don’t pan out, it’s only for two years.

The people in Buffalo—fans and media folks alike—could not have been less concerned that Connolly left for nothing.  They just wanted him gone, it seemed.  Management certainly didn’t criticize him on his way out the door, but their lack of interest in bringing him back also appeared to speak volumes.

In any event, the former Islander high draft pick (I remember when the Sabres picked him up…the Peca deal, right?) is a guy I really liked as he developed in his early years with the Sabres.  He wasn’t exactly Milan Lucic in terms of physical play but most guys aren’t, right? He seemed to make his wingers better and certainly put up some points while also developing into a reassonably proficient penalty-killer throughout his Buffalo years.

Of course, he came to town with the unfortunate burden of some serious injuries in his past, so Leaf enthusiasts were naturally apprehensive about where things stood in that regard.  When the season opened and Connolly was on the injured list, you could pretty much hear the exasperation and sense of, “well, here we go again…”.

Now, in fairness, while he was sometimes not entirely prominent in his early (when healthy and in the line-up) days with the Leafs, he also went through a period where he certainly contributed.  We saw the sweet hands, for sure.  While he never sparked (even way back in the early days of training camp) with his then projected top line wingers (Lupul and Kessel), Connolly at least made his presence felt some nights.

Now of late, he is buried a bit on the third line many nights.  Are we seeing Connolly at his best?  I don’t think so.  Is he playing with an injury?  He may well be.  So I’m loathe to cast a definitive assessment as to what he is delivering these days without really knowing what's going on behind the scenes. And just maybe he needs to be playing with linemates who can take better advantage of his vision and good hands. (That was in evidence in the second period in Winnipeg, with the Leafs trailing at the time by a score of 2-1.  Connolly fed a perfect pass to an open winger that could easily have resulted in a Leaf goal- and a well-deserved assist for Connolly.)

But given that the Leafs have been back to some pretty heady play of late, and fans are for the most part happy with how the team is playing—from the goal on out, it’s maybe a fair time to mention that one name that doesn’t seem to come up in conversation very often is that of Tim Connolly.

I guess what I’m wondering is this:  does Connolly still have a lot in the tank, and will we begin to see it on a more consistent basis down the stretch and into the playoffs?  Or, is he this year’s Kris Versteeg—a Burke acquisition that seemed like a good idea at the time, but something the organization would in fact un-do if it had the chance?

Of course we have no idea what the brass is really thinking.  We’ll never hear so publicly, at least.

Here’s something I never really focused on until looking at it recently.  Connolly has never scored 20 goals in an NHL season.  (That takes into account 10 years when he played at least half the season.)  Now, he’s had more than 30 assists in a year five times, which is more what you would expect from a front-line (“top-six”, if you will) center.  And generally speaking, last season aside, he has been a “plus” player in recent years for the Sabres.

So where are we right now?  Well, he’s playing on average about 17 minutes a night.  He takes very few penalties so he doesn’t cost the team that way.  In terms of basic stats, everyone knows his numbers (7 goals, 18 assists in 43 games so far this season).

My concern or focus, though, is not so much on his “numbers” as what I’m actually seeing.  I’m not expecting a dogged, determined guy on every shift every night.  But for, what is it, more than 4 million a season (in what is an “opportunity” year for him—a year to prove he still “has it”) I’m not sure I’m quite seeing “it”.

Will we see it?  Is there a lot more in that tank?  I’m thinking there has to be.  But at the moment, if I was an NHL General Manager, I would not give up anything up for Connolly in a trade, maybe not even a 5^th round draft choice—because, you never know what even a late-round draft choice might become.

Right now, though, are we seeing what Tim Connolly is?