Here’s a small Maple Leaf alarm bell

On  Monday I was made aware of a new Leaf blog and asked to give it a mention.  I'm glad to do so.  The link to the TMLs Hockey Blog is here:    http://Tmlshockeyblog.blogspot.com/

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While the Leafs dropped the a game via shootout against the Kings at the ACC Monday night, it is encouraging that they continue to be (most nights) a very strong third period team.  They have a penchant for coming from behind with and playing pretty stellar third periods.

Despite not exactly providing a complete 60-minute effort, Reimer earned a point for the Leafs with some exceptional goaltending.  One thing is clear:  The organization wants Reimer to be the number-one guy.  They are paying Reimer to be the number-one guy.  And if they plan on using Reimer as the guy to lead any playoff drive.  Full stop.  Gustavsson- along with his playing time and confidence- remains a secondary priority for Wilson and Burke.

I must mention Frattin again.  His drive to the net gave the Leafs the tying goal and his outstanding defensive play in overtime temporarily saved the game and gave the Leafs a chance to earn a second point.

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A couple of days ago I posted here on the teams I thought would be the legitimate contenders for the final couple of playoff spots in the Eastern Conference.  I included the Leafs in a category of 6 teams who I thought would be in that “contending” position, and further projected/identified four teams, again including Toronto, who should actually battle it out down to the wire—all things being equal.

For all the off again, on again optimism around the blue and white this season, I sense most Leaf fans, while thinking this year’s team is definitely better and wanting to believe, still tend to fall back on familiar levels of doubt and despair when the team looks even temporarily out of sync—or loses a couple of games, as they now have.

A win and there is at least relief, if not joy—and certainly boosted expectations—in Mudville.

One disconcerting thought, however.  The Leafs had a pretty good start to this season.  It was better than last year, when they started impressively with four consecutive wins but then sank like a stone in the standings over the next several weeks.

This season, their early-success success lasted much longer and was more broadly evident.  (Heck, there's even talk of an extension for the coach...)  They won some games that could have gone either way, sure, but everyone does.  They’ve come from behind.  They built up a nice nest egg of points.  But now the collars are getting a bit tight.   Fans will be talking possible trades.

A couple of wins would erode the short-term insecurity, but my guess is most Leaf supporters, while acknowledging the obvious roster improvements, still recognize the need for further fine-tuning.  Whether that’s more grit, overall team toughness, a front-line center or a shutdown defenseman (aren’t we already supposed to have a few of those), the feeling is Burke’s original blank canvas has been filled in, but certainly not completely.

But one disconcerting thing that did cross my mind earlier today was simply this:  at the beginning of the season, I honest too  goodness figured the Ottawa Senators would be in tough to win 20 games.  I mean all season long.  They have no goaltending to speak of (not if you’re talking about a serious “playoff” team).  They are awfully inexperienced through much of their roster.  Alfredsson, while an honorable elder statesman in the game, is aging.  Their “leader”, Spezza, is not a classic leader.

I just figured they would work hard for (yet another) new coach, but they would hit quicksand before the season even got serious.  I still think that will happen once the better teams start ramping up in the second half of the season, but clearly I have been very wrong about the Senators.  For reasons that only someone close to the team could effectively convey, when I peaked at the standings Monday morning, they stood at 34 points in 33 games.  Certainly respectable and certainly better than I ever expected, but not what you would consider tremendous if you were just looking from the “outside” and didn’t know they were working with an under-talented, young squad. But if you project those point totals through an 82-game season, they would fall short of what we would expect teams will need to make the Eastern Conference playoffs.

But here’s the alarming thing:  snuggled in, yes tucked in along with the Sabres, just one point ahead of the expected-to-be-stumbling and in disrepair Senators, were our Maple Leafs.  They had wedged themselves into 7/8^th place, that one narrow point ahead of Ottawa.  After the shootout loss against the Kings, the Leafs are now two points up and have played the same number of games as the Senators.

What does this tell us?

Here we have Ottawa’s scatter-shot roster, which wouldn’t scare anyone, with a first-year, first-time NHL head coach behind the bench.  A team that was a Cup contender a few short years ago, yes,  but a team that went badly south, suddenly, and then ultimately wouldn’t play for a series of new coaches.  They have gone from potential champion to also-ran.  Yet here is this eager, playing over-their-head bunch now virtually neck and neck with the Leafs?

The Leafs are young, too, and have worked like mad to improve their roster (in fairness, so has Bryan Murray).  Toronto, though, is in "year four" of its rebuilding effort, with a coach, coincidentally, in his fourth year behind the bench- and with decades of NHL head coaching experience behind him.

Yet you can barely separate the two teams, as we approach the Christmas break.

Should we be concerned?

You tell me.  I look forward to hearing your thoughts.